Estrela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
SC Braga were slight favourites.
SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 20). SC Braga usually keep the ball (61% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Estrela had 7 days of rest, SC Braga 6 and had to travel 319 km.
Away travel319 kmRest days7 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 1
Estrela18%
Draw24%
SC Braga58%
Estrela19%
Draw24%
SC Braga57%
Estrela18%
Draw24%
SC Braga58%
Estrela14%
Draw21%
SC Braga65%
Estrela19%
Draw24%
SC Braga57%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Amadora)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalHelder Filipe Claudio Carvalho
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 1.00
- Matches 5
Team strength
Estrela
SC Braga
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
63
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
24
AttackIn forecast
42
27
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EstrelaSC Braga
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.75
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.94
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.78
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.97
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
56%
Scored inContext
81%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
11.31
ShotsContext
13.00
3.87
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
32%
On target shareContext
39%
6.06
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
52%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.13
Shots allowedContext
8.13
4.31
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.06
3.69
BlocksContext
2.23
3.36
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.43
72%
Save rateContext
74%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
65%
345
PassesContext
607
277
Accurate passesContext
531
80%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.86
13.69
FoulsContext
10.81
15.75
Fouls sufferedContext
12.38
2.63
Yellow cardsContext
1.94
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
1.86
1.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.70
ShotsContext
12.70
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
35%
On target shareContext
35%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
9.10
54%
Box shareContext
71%
15%
ConversionContext
13%
2.22
OffsidesContext
1.43
14.40
Shots allowedContext
8.80
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.00
BlocksContext
2.38
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
64%
Save rateContext
74%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
367
PassesContext
600
299
Accurate passesContext
527
81%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.87
14.30
FoulsContext
12.10
15.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Estrela
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km603 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
SC Braga
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel319 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Estrela |
SC Braga |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 27 Dec | 6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 28 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 319 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 603 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 16.1 | 15 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Estrela
Confirmed XI
40Renan Ribeiro(G)
83Otávio
14Bernardo Schappo
30Luan Patrick
17Jefferson Encada
63A. Sola
6Oumar Ngom
11Jovane Cabral
19Paulo Moreira
99A. Marcus
98Kikas
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
1L. Horníček(G)
26B. Arrey-Mbi
6Vitor Carvalho
2Víctor Gómez
5Leonardo Lelo
8João Moutinho
29Jean-Baptiste Gorby
20M. Dorgeles
18Pau Víctor
39Fran Navarro
17Gabriel Moscardo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Estrela
Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Braga
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Estrela+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- SC Braga+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Estrela · Home
1.13points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-3
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.13
SC Braga · Away
1.50points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-2
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Estrela | SC Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Famalicao | W 3–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Moreirense | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| FC Porto | L 1–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| Arouca | W 3–1 H | W 4–0 A |
| Sporting CP | L 0–4 A | D 1–1 A |
| Nacional | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Casa Pia | W 5–3 A | W 4–0 H |
| Rio Ave | L 1–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| GIL Vicente | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| AVS | W 3–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Tondela | D 0–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Guimaraes | L 0–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Santa Clara | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Alverca | D 2–2 H | W 3–0 A |
| Benfica | L 0–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Estoril | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 18 of 48 · 1.13 per game | 26 of 48 · 1.63 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Estrela wins1 draws3 SC Braga wins
Goals per game0.75 – 2.25
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 19 Jan 2025Estrela0–1SC Braga
- 11 Aug 2024SC Braga1–1Estrela
- 2 Mar 2024SC Braga3–0Estrela
- 28 Sep 2023Estrela2–4SC Braga
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Estrela | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 1.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.94 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 2.69 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 63% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 44% | 19% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| Estrela | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.90 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Estrela | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.08 | 5.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.62 | 3.07 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 8.36 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 46% 6/13 | 36% 5/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 31% 4/13 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 23% 3/13 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.75 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.94 | 2.81 | |
| Match total | 5.69 | 4.81 | 5.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 81% 13/16 | 88% 14/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 12/16 | 56% 9/16 | |
| Estrela | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.13 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.63 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.76 | 8.78 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 5.70 | 5.20 | 5.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Helder Filipe Claudio Carvalho Portugal · 5 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.80league 5.11
Red cards0.00league 0.30
Cards 5+40%league 61%
Fouls31.4league 27.2
Penalties1.00league 0.43
Home wins40%league 37%
Estrela1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L16 Aug 25H · Benfica0–13
SC BragaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Estrela15 games · scored 15 · conceded 21
1
3
0-15
5
3
16-30
3
7
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
1
76-90
SC Braga16 games · scored 28 · conceded 15
5
2
0-15
6
4
16-30
7
6
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
Estrela9 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
1
3
0-15
5
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
76-90
SC Braga10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
5
5
31-45
1
3
46-60
5
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
