Estrela vs Sporting CP – 11 Apr 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 29 Sat, Apr 11 · 20:30 Estádio José Gomes, Amadora

Estrela 14th · 28 pts · 28 played DDLWL

0–1Full time

Sporting CP 2nd · 68 pts · 27 played WWDWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Sporting CP were clear favourites.

Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Estrela. Estrela had 7.2 days of rest, Sporting CP 8 and had to travel 8 km.

Away travel8 kmRest days7.2 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Estrela10%

Draw18%

Sporting CP71%

Expected goals 0.76 – 2.29

Estrela9%

Draw17%

Sporting CP75%

Expected goals 0.73 – 2.44

Estrela10%

Draw18%

Sporting CP71%

Expected goals 0.76 – 2.29

Estrela7%

Draw15%

Sporting CP78%

Expected goals 0.67 – 2.56

Estrela10%

Draw18%

Sporting CP72%

Expected goals 0.78 – 2.33

Over 2.5 59% Both score 48% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Amadora)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalDavid Rafael Oliveira da Silva

Cards per match 6.5
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 14

Team strength

Estrela

Sporting CP

17 L90 StrengthIn forecast 83

20 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

24 AttackIn forecast 75

27 DefenceIn forecast 81

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Estrela

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sporting CP

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Estrela

Sporting CP

1.18 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.67

1.68 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.63

1.20 xGVia Att/Def 2.03

1.52 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.66

-0.02 Goals minus xGContext +0.64

57% Scored inContext 100%

25% Clean sheetsContext 48%

10.86 ShotsContext 17.63

3.74 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.78

33% On target shareContext 38%

5.68 Shots in the boxContext 11.85

51% Box shareContext 67%

11% ConversionContext 15%

2.29 OffsidesContext 1.94

13.21 Shots allowedContext 7.96

4.61 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

4.08 BlocksContext 2.52

3.19 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.52

66% Save rateContext 80%

49% PossessionIn forecast 62%

353 PassesContext 529

286 Accurate passesContext 465

81% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.77 Team ratingContext 7.09

13.86 FoulsContext 12.26

14.86 Fouls sufferedContext 13.89

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.37

0.11 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 28 and 27 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.22 xGVia Att/Def 1.64

1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.82

-0.22 Goals minus xGContext +0.66

60% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

10.70 ShotsContext 16.60

3.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.20

35% On target shareContext 37%

5.80 Shots in the boxContext 11.60

54% Box shareContext 71%

9% ConversionContext 14%

2.60 OffsidesContext 2.29

13.90 Shots allowedContext 7.60

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.90

4.89 BlocksContext 2.29

3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.22

67% Save rateContext 71%

50% PossessionIn forecast 58%

366 PassesContext 535

301 Accurate passesContext 471

82% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.99

14.10 FoulsContext 12.20

14.40 Fouls sufferedContext 14.80

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Estrela

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,937 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Sporting CP

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel8 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Estrela	Sporting CP
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 4 Apr	8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 3 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	8 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,937 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7.8	7.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Estrela Confirmed XI

4-3-3

40Renan Ribeiro(G)

24B. Langa 14Bernardo Schappo 4S. Leković 21M. Scholze

8Robinho 6Kevin Höög Jansson 39G. Doue

10I. Stoica 9Rodrigo Pinho 99A. Marcus

Sporting CP Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Rui Silva(G)

20M. Araújo 6Z. Debast 72Eduardo Quaresma 22Iván Fresneda

23Daniel Bragança 42M. Hjulmand

8Pote 17Trincão 10Geny Catamo

97L. Suárez

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Estrela Absences are shown before kick-off

Sporting CP Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Estrela+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Sporting CP+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Estrela · Home 1.21points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 4-5-5
Scored: 1.43
Conceded: 1.50

Sporting CP · Away 2.43points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 10-4-0
Scored: 2.29
Conceded: 0.79

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Estrela	Sporting CP
Nacional	L 0–2 AD 1–1 H	W 2–1 HW 4–1 A
Casa Pia	W 4–0 HW 5–3 A	W 3–0 HW 2–0 A
Rio Ave	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H	W 4–0 H
GIL Vicente	D 2–2 HL 0–2 A	D 1–1 A
AVS	D 0–0 AW 3–0 H	W 6–0 H
Tondela	L 0–2 HD 0–0 A	W 3–0 A
Guimaraes	L 1–2 AL 0–2 H	W 4–1 A
Santa Clara	W 1–0 HD 0–0 A	W 4–2 HW 2–1 A
Alverca	D 1–1 AD 2–2 H	W 4–1 AW 2–0 H
Benfica	L 0–4 AL 0–1 H	D 1–1 A
Estoril	L 0–5 HD 1–1 A	W 3–0 HW 1–0 A
SC Braga	D 3–3 H	D 2–2 AD 1–1 H
Famalicao	W 3–2 A	W 1–0 HW 2–1 A
Moreirense	D 0–0 H	W 3–0 AW 3–0 H
FC Porto	L 1–3 A	D 1–1 AL 1–2 H
Arouca	W 3–1 H	W 2–1 AW 6–0 H
Points	28 of 81 · 1.04 per game	65 of 78 · 2.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

0 Estrela wins0 draws5 Sporting CP wins

Goals per game0.80 – 3.40 Over 2.5100% Both scored60% Clean sheets0% · 40%

30 Nov 2025Sporting CP4–0Estrela
29 Mar 2025Estrela0–3Sporting CP
1 Nov 2024Sporting CP5–1Estrela
29 Mar 2024Estrela1–2Sporting CP
5 Nov 2023Sporting CP3–2Estrela

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Estrela	Sporting CP	Forecast
Scored per game	1.18	2.67
Conceded per game	1.68	0.63
Match goals	2.86	3.30	3.04
Over 1.5	79%	93%
Over 2.5	54%	70%	59%
Over 3.5	39%	33%
Both teams scored	46%	52%	48%
Clean sheets	25%	48%
Failed to score	43%	0%
Games	28	27

	Estrela	Sporting CP	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.50
Conceded per game	1.50	0.80
Match goals	2.50	3.30	3.04
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	80%	59%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	60%	48%
Clean sheets	30%	40%
Failed to score	40%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Estrela	Sporting CP	League
Corners
Corners won	4.04	6.58
Corners conceded	5.25	2.96
Match total	9.29	9.54	9.22
Over 8.5	50% 12/24	71% 17/24
Over 9.5	42% 10/24	50% 12/24
Over 10.5	38% 9/24	33% 8/24
Cards
Cards	2.64	2.48
Opponent cards	2.71	2.81
Match total	5.35	5.29	5.10
Over 3.5	75% 21/28	63% 17/27
Over 4.5	71% 20/28	59% 16/27

	Estrela	Sporting CP	League
Corners
Corners won	4.22	7.30
Corners conceded	6.11	2.90
Match total	10.33	10.20	9.22
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.50
Opponent cards	2.60	2.10
Match total	5.10	4.60	5.10
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · David Rafael Oliveira da Silva Portugal · 14 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards6.21league 4.83

Red cards0.29league 0.25

Cards 5+93%league 58%

Fouls30.0league 26.9

Penalties0.29league 0.43

Home wins57%league 41%

Estrela2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.4.5 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 1

L25 Jan 26A · Benfica0–44
W26 Apr 25H · FC Porto2–05

Sporting CP2 with this referee

Record2-0-0 Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

W15 Feb 26H · Famalicao1–03
W16 Jan 26H · Casa Pia3–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.