Estrela
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Estrela10.3%fair odds 9.72
Draw18.2%fair odds 5.49
Sporting CP71.5%fair odds 1.40
Expected goals0.76 – 2.29total 3.04
Likeliest score0–212.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Sporting CP
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Estrela ↓ · Sporting CP → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Estrela goals, columns Sporting CP goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–212.5%8.01
- 0–110.5%9.54
- 0–39.5%10.52
- 1–29.4%10.61
- 1–18.7%11.51
- 1–37.2%13.92
- 0–45.4%18.40
- 0–05.2%19.18
- 1–44.1%24.36
- 2–23.6%28.08
Winning margin
0.6%
Estrela by 3+
fair 159.93
2.3%
Estrela by 2
fair 42.76
7.3%
Estrela by 1
fair 13.65
18.2%
Draw
fair 5.49
23.1%
Sporting CP by 1
fair 4.34
21.4%
Sporting CP by 2
fair 4.67
27.0%
Sporting CP by 3+
fair 3.70
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Estrela goals
47%0
35%1
13%2
3%3
1%4+
Sporting CP goals
10%0
23%1
27%2
20%3
20%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela win | 10.3% | 10.4% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 18.2% | 18.0% | +0.2 pp |
| Sporting CP win | 71.5% | 71.6% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.6% | 60.1% | -1.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 48.1% | 49.4% | -1.4 pp |
| Expected goals Estrela | 0.76 | 0.78 | -0.03 |
| Expected goals Sporting CP | 2.29 | 2.33 | -0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Estrela win10.3%9.72
- Draw18.2%5.49
- Sporting CP win71.5%1.40
- Double chance Estrela or draw28.5%3.51
- Double chance Estrela or Sporting CP81.8%1.22
- Double chance Sporting CP or draw89.7%1.11
- Draw no bet Estrela12.6%7.95
- Draw no bet Sporting CP87.4%1.14
Goals
- Over 0.594.8%1.06
- Over 1.581.1%1.23
- Over 2.558.6%1.71
- Over 3.536.2%2.76
- Over 4.519.2%5.22
- Under 1.518.9%5.30
- Under 2.541.4%2.42
- Under 3.563.8%1.57
Both teams to score
- Yes48.1%2.08
- No51.9%1.93
- Yes and over 2.539.4%2.54
- Estrela win and yes5.3%18.74
- Draw and yes13.0%7.69
- Sporting CP win and yes29.7%3.36
Team goals
- Estrela over 0.553.0%1.89
- Estrela over 1.517.5%5.70
- Estrela over 2.54.1%24.25
- Sporting CP over 0.589.8%1.11
- Sporting CP over 1.566.6%1.50
- Sporting CP over 2.540.0%2.50
- Estrela clean sheet10.2%9.83
- Sporting CP clean sheet47.0%2.13
- Estrela win to nil5.0%20.18
- Sporting CP win to nil41.8%2.39
Handicap
- Estrela −1.53.0%33.74
- Estrela −2.50.6%159.93
- Sporting CP +1.597.0%1.03
- Sporting CP +2.599.4%1.01
- Sporting CP −1.548.4%2.06
- Estrela +1.551.6%1.94
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored253
Favourite won58.1%
Avg chance given to result44.0%
1X2 Brier0.539
Over 2.5 called right58.1%
BTTS called right53.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 48 | 37.7% | 41.7% |
| 40–50% | 83 | 44.6% | 47.0% |
| 50–60% | 51 | 54.6% | 56.9% |
| 60–70% | 35 | 65.3% | 80.0% |
| 70–80% | 28 | 75.3% | 82.1% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 84.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 201 of 253 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5229 | 0.5129 |
| Avg chance given to result | 45.0% | 46.7% |
| Favourite won | 61.7% | 60.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 201 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 253 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.