Estrela vs Tondela – 20 Feb 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 23 Fri, Feb 20 · 20:45 Estádio José Gomes, Amadora

Estrela 11th · 23 pts · 22 played LLDWL

0–2Full time

Tondela 17th · 15 pts · 22 played LLDDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Estrela were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Tondela. Estrela had 6.1 days of rest, Tondela 7 and had to travel 219 km.

Away travel219 kmRest days6.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Estrela39%

Draw30%

Tondela30%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.01

Estrela45%

Draw27%

Tondela28%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.16

Estrela39%

Draw30%

Tondela30%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.01

Estrela33%

Draw31%

Tondela36%

Expected goals 1.06 – 1.13

Estrela40%

Draw29%

Tondela31%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.11

Over 2.5 38% Both score 45% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Amadora)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalGustavo Correia

Cards per match 6.2
Penalties per match 0.42
Matches 64

Team strength

Estrela

Tondela

19 L90 StrengthIn forecast 17

20 Current StrengthIn forecast 18

24 AttackIn forecast 16

27 DefenceIn forecast 29

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Estrela

Attack—

Defense risk—

Tondela

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Estrela

Tondela

1.18 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.68

1.77 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.64

1.11 xGVia Att/Def 1.12

1.56 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.38

+0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.44

59% Scored inContext 41%

23% Clean sheetsContext 14%

10.09 ShotsContext 10.09

3.52 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.38

33% On target shareContext 32%

5.23 Shots in the boxContext 6.18

50% Box shareContext 60%

12% ConversionContext 7%

1.94 OffsidesContext 2.95

13.18 Shots allowedContext 12.73

4.73 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.18

3.71 BlocksContext 3.33

3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

66% Save rateContext 75%

47% PossessionIn forecast 42%

339 PassesContext 312

272 Accurate passesContext 245

80% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.70

14.36 FoulsContext 14.05

14.55 Fouls sufferedContext 11.14

2.64 Yellow cardsContext 2.64

0.09 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 22 and 22 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

0.86 xGVia Att/Def 1.12

1.80 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.09

+0.44 Goals minus xGContext -0.32

70% Scored inContext 50%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

8.60 ShotsContext 9.10

3.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.89

36% On target shareContext 29%

4.70 Shots in the boxContext 5.90

52% Box shareContext 62%

15% ConversionContext 9%

1.89 OffsidesContext 2.88

14.40 Shots allowedContext 11.30

5.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

4.11 BlocksContext 2.90

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.88

63% Save rateContext 80%

43% PossessionIn forecast 39%

333 PassesContext 302

266 Accurate passesContext 234

80% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.66 Team ratingContext 6.67

15.70 FoulsContext 13.50

12.60 Fouls sufferedContext 9.60

2.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Estrela

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km619 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Tondela

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel219 km462 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Estrela	Tondela
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 14 Feb	7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 13 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	219 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	619 km	462 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7.8	8.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Estrela Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

40Renan Ribeiro(G)

83Otávio 4S. Leković 30Luan Patrick 17Jefferson Encada

6Kevin Höög Jansson

11Jovane Cabral 19Paulo Moreira 39G. Doue 99A. Marcus

20S. van Hooijdonk

Tondela Confirmed XI

5-4-1

31Bernardo Fontes(G)

27Rodrigo Conceição 20Brayan Medina 4Christian Marques 44João Silva 2Bebeto

90M. Aïko 97Cicero 10J. Hodge 7Pedro Henryque

23B. Mbunga Kimpioka

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Estrela Absences are shown before kick-off

Tondela Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Estrela+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Tondela+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Estrela · Home 1.18points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 3-4-4
Scored: 1.27
Conceded: 1.55

Tondela · Away 0.73points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 2-2-7
Scored: 0.73
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Estrela	Tondela
Guimaraes	L 1–2 AL 0–2 H	L 0–1 H
Santa Clara	W 1–0 HD 0–0 A	W 2–1 A
Alverca	D 1–1 AD 2–2 H	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A
Benfica	L 0–4 AL 0–1 H	D 0–0 HL 0–3 A
Estoril	L 0–5 HD 1–1 A	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H
SC Braga	D 3–3 H	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A
Famalicao	W 3–2 A	L 0–3 AL 0–1 H
Moreirense	D 0–0 H	L 0–1 A
FC Porto	L 1–3 A	L 0–2 H
Arouca	W 3–1 H	W 3–1 H
Sporting CP	L 0–4 A	L 0–3 H
Nacional	D 1–1 H	L 1–3 A
Casa Pia	W 5–3 A	L 1–2 H
Rio Ave	L 1–2 H	L 0–3 A
GIL Vicente	L 0–2 A	W 1–0 A
AVS	W 3–0 H	D 2–2 A
Points	22 of 63 · 1.05 per game	14 of 63 · 0.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Estrela wins1 draws0 Tondela wins

Goals per game0.00 – 0.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 100%

21 Sep 2025Tondela0–0Estrela

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Estrela	Tondela	Forecast
Scored per game	1.18	0.68
Conceded per game	1.77	1.64
Match goals	2.95	2.32	2.20
Over 1.5	77%	64%
Over 2.5	55%	55%	38%
Over 3.5	41%	23%
Both teams scored	50%	36%	45%
Clean sheets	23%	14%
Failed to score	41%	59%
Games	22	22

	Estrela	Tondela	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	0.80
Conceded per game	2.10	1.60
Match goals	3.40	2.40	2.20
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	50%	38%
Over 3.5	60%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	45%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	30%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Estrela	Tondela	League
Corners
Corners won	3.53	3.73
Corners conceded	5.26	5.59
Match total	8.79	9.32	9.25
Over 8.5	47% 9/19	50% 11/22
Over 9.5	37% 7/19	41% 9/22
Over 10.5	32% 6/19	36% 8/22
Cards
Cards	2.77	2.73
Opponent cards	2.64	2.14
Match total	5.41	4.87	5.26
Over 3.5	77% 17/22	68% 15/22
Over 4.5	73% 16/22	45% 10/22

	Estrela	Tondela	League
Corners
Corners won	2.89	4.10
Corners conceded	6.56	5.40
Match total	9.45	9.50	9.25
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	3.00	2.70
Opponent cards	2.20	2.00
Match total	5.20	4.70	5.26
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Gustavo Correia Portugal · 64 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.77league 4.92

Red cards0.39league 0.28

Cards 5+72%league 59%

Fouls28.6league 27.0

Penalties0.42league 0.44

Home wins39%league 41%

Estrela4 with this referee

Record0-1-3 Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 2 Reds2

D21 Sep 25A · Tondela0–03
L17 May 25A · Estoril0–42
L29 Mar 25H · Sporting CP0–38
L19 Aug 23A · Benfica0–23

Tondela2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 1

L18 Jan 26H · SC Braga0–12
D21 Sep 25H · Estrela0–04

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.