Everton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (78 vs 69). Everton had 14 days of rest, Aston Villa 12.8 and had to travel 126 km.
Away travel126 kmRest days14 · 12.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Everton36%
Draw26%
Aston Villa37%
Everton37%
Draw27%
Aston Villa36%
Everton37%
Draw27%
Aston Villa37%
Everton29%
Draw26%
Aston Villa45%
Everton37%
Draw27%
Aston Villa36%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Liverpool, Merseyside)
No weather data yet
RefereeSimon Hooper
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 127
Team strength
Everton
Aston Villa
69
L90 StrengthIn forecast
78
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
82
61
AttackIn forecast
83
66
DefenceIn forecast
78
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EvertonAston Villa
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.44
xGVia Att/Def
0.84
1.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.84
67%
Scored inContext
0%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
9.33
ShotsContext
11.00
2.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
29%
On target shareContext
27%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
65%
Box shareContext
74%
18%
ConversionContext
0%
1.50
OffsidesContext
—
15.33
Shots allowedContext
10.33
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
6.67
BlocksContext
3.67
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.67
73%
Save rateContext
56%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
381
PassesContext
476
290
Accurate passesContext
405
76%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.67
8.33
FoulsContext
9.67
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.33
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
70%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.00
ShotsContext
11.70
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
39%
On target shareContext
36%
6.67
Shots in the boxContext
9.56
70%
Box shareContext
74%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.67
13.00
Shots allowedContext
11.60
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.80
BlocksContext
2.80
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
82%
Save rateContext
76%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
384
PassesContext
396
311
Accurate passesContext
330
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.90
9.00
FoulsContext
9.60
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Everton
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km216 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Aston Villa
Rest12.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel126 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Everton |
Aston Villa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Premier League 2025-2026, 30 Aug | 12.8Premier League 2025-2026, 31 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 126 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 216 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Everton
Confirmed XI
1J. Pickford(G)
37J. Garner
5M. Keane
6J. Tarkowski
15J. O'Brien
42T. Iroegbunam
27I. Gueye
18J. Grealish
22K. Dewsbury-Hall
10I. Ndiaye
9Beto
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
23E. Martínez(G)
12L. Digne
5T. Mings
4E. Konsa
2M. Cash
8Y. Tielemans
26L. Bogarde
10E. Buendía
27M. Rogers
7J. McGinn
11O. Watkins
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Everton
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Aston Villa
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Everton-0.5 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Aston Villa+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Everton · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Aston Villa · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
0 Everton wins2 draws8 Aston Villa wins
Goals per game0.40 – 1.80
Over 2.550%
Both scored30%
Clean sheets20% · 70%
- 15 Jan 2025Everton0–1Aston Villa
- 14 Sep 2024Aston Villa3–2Everton
- 14 Jan 2024Everton0–0Aston Villa
- 20 Aug 2023Aston Villa4–0Everton
- 25 Feb 2023Everton0–2Aston Villa
- 13 Aug 2022Aston Villa2–1Everton
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Everton | Aston Villa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 1.33 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 33% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 0% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 100% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Everton | Aston Villa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 1.33 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 33% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 0% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 100% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Everton | Aston Villa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.00 | 7.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 5.67 | 10.33 | 9.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 3.33 | 3.67 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Everton | Aston Villa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.10 | 5.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 10.11 | 9.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 4.40 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simon Hooper 127 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.91league 3.45
Red cards0.06league 0.10
Cards 5+35%league 39%
Fouls21.7league 22.3
Penalties0.17league 0.32
Home wins50%league 52%
Everton12 with this referee
Record4-2-6
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 3
Reds1
- L19 Apr 25H · Manchester City0–24
- D26 Feb 25A · Brentford1–11
- D26 Dec 24A · Manchester City1–14
- L17 Aug 24H · Brighton0–32
- L9 Mar 24A · Manchester United0–22
Aston Villa9 with this referee
Record5-2-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.9
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W5 Apr 25H · Nottingham Forest2–12
- D13 May 24H · Liverpool3–31
- W12 Nov 23H · Fulham3–12
- L3 Sep 23A · Liverpool0–31
- L18 Feb 23H · Arsenal2–42
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Everton3 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Aston Villa3 games · scored 0 · conceded 4
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Everton10 games · scored 14 · conceded 9
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
46-60
3
61-75
1
5
76-90
Aston Villa10 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
2
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
31-45
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
