Everton vs Chelsea – 21 Mar 2026

Premier League Gameweek 31 Sat, Mar 21 · 17:30 Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool, Merseyside

Everton 10th · 43 pts · 30 played LLWWL

3–0Full time

Chelsea 6th · 48 pts · 30 played DDLWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Chelsea were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 70). Chelsea usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Everton had 7 days of rest, Chelsea 7 and had to travel 286 km.

Away travel286 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Everton34%

Draw24%

Chelsea41%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.70

Everton35%

Draw27%

Chelsea38%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.38

Everton34%

Draw25%

Chelsea41%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.63

Everton27%

Draw23%

Chelsea50%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.91

Everton35%

Draw25%

Chelsea40%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.57

Over 2.5 63% Both score 65% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Liverpool, Merseyside)

No weather data yet

RefereeSamuel Barrott

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 79

Team strength

Everton

Chelsea

70 L90 StrengthIn forecast 82

67 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

61 AttackIn forecast 77

66 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Everton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Chelsea

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Everton

Chelsea

1.13 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.77

1.17 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.17

1.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.95

1.47 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.18

70% Scored inContext 90%

33% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.00 ShotsContext 13.80

3.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

31% On target shareContext 34%

7.45 Shots in the boxContext 9.48

67% Box shareContext 68%

10% ConversionContext 13%

1.95 OffsidesContext 2.00

13.63 Shots allowedContext 10.80

4.28 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.03

4.40 BlocksContext 3.00

2.93 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

67% Save rateContext 72%

44% PossessionIn forecast 59%

385 PassesContext 543

307 Accurate passesContext 474

80% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.95 Team ratingContext 7.03

10.63 FoulsContext 11.10

11.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.87

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 30 and 30 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.39 xGVia Att/Def 2.19

1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.03

-0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.29

80% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 0%

11.60 ShotsContext 14.40

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

34% On target shareContext 35%

7.56 Shots in the boxContext 9.50

61% Box shareContext 67%

10% ConversionContext 13%

1.88 OffsidesContext 1.75

14.30 Shots allowedContext 9.00

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

4.10 BlocksContext 2.11

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

70% Save rateContext 59%

46% PossessionIn forecast 60%

425 PassesContext 594

343 Accurate passesContext 532

81% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.86

11.90 FoulsContext 10.40

13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Everton

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km573 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Chelsea

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel286 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Everton	Chelsea
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Premier League 2025-2026, 14 Mar	7Premier League 2025-2026, 14 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	286 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	573 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 4	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	20.9	21.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Everton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Pickford(G)

16V. Mykolenko 5M. Keane 6J. Tarkowski 15J. O'Brien

37J. Garner 27I. Gueye

10I. Ndiaye 22K. Dewsbury-Hall 7D. McNeil

9Beto

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Chelsea Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Robert Sánchez(G)

3Marc Cucurella 21J. Hato 29W. Fofana 27M. Gusto

25M. Caicedo 45R. Lavia

7Pedro Neto 8E. Fernández 10C. Palmer

20João Pedro

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Everton Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Chelsea Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Everton+0.2 pp
Draw-0.7 pp
Chelsea+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Everton · Home 1.27points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 5-4-6
Scored: 1.20
Conceded: 1.27

Chelsea · Away 1.67points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 7-4-4
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.20

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Everton	Chelsea
Arsenal	L 0–2 AL 0–1 H	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H
Burnley	W 2–0 HD 0–0 A	D 1–1 HW 2–0 A
Newcastle	W 3–2 AL 1–4 H	L 0–1 HD 2–2 A
Manchester United	L 0–1 HW 1–0 A	L 1–2 A
Bournemouth	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A	D 2–2 HD 0–0 A
Fulham	W 2–1 AW 2–0 H	L 1–2 AW 2–0 H
Brighton	D 1–1 AW 2–0 H	L 1–3 H
Leeds	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A	D 2–2 HL 1–3 A
Aston Villa	W 1–0 AD 0–0 H	W 4–1 AL 1–2 H
Wolves	D 1–1 HW 3–2 A	W 3–1 AW 3–0 H
Brentford	L 2–4 H	W 2–0 HD 2–2 A
Nottingham Forest	W 2–0 AW 3–0 H	W 3–0 A
Sunderland	D 1–1 A	L 1–2 H
Tottenham	L 0–3 H	W 1–0 A
Manchester City	L 0–2 A	D 1–1 A
Crystal Palace	W 2–1 H	W 3–1 AD 0–0 H
West Ham	D 1–1 H	W 3–2 HW 5–1 A
Liverpool	L 1–2 A	W 2–1 H
Points	43 of 87 · 1.48 per game	45 of 87 · 1.55 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

2 Everton wins3 draws5 Chelsea wins

Goals per game0.60 – 1.50 Over 2.520% Both scored20% Clean sheets30% · 60%

13 Dec 2025Chelsea2–0Everton
26 Apr 2025Chelsea1–0Everton
22 Dec 2024Everton0–0Chelsea
15 Apr 2024Chelsea6–0Everton
10 Dec 2023Everton2–0Chelsea
18 Mar 2023Chelsea2–2Everton

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Everton	Chelsea	Forecast
Scored per game	1.13	1.77
Conceded per game	1.17	1.17
Match goals	2.30	2.93	3.24
Over 1.5	73%	87%
Over 2.5	33%	63%	63%
Over 3.5	13%	37%
Both teams scored	43%	67%	65%
Clean sheets	33%	30%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	30	30

	Everton	Chelsea	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	2.00
Conceded per game	1.10	1.30
Match goals	2.30	3.30	3.24
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	30%	70%	63%
Over 3.5	10%	50%
Both teams scored	60%	80%	65%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Everton	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	4.40	6.34
Corners conceded	5.07	4.14
Match total	9.47	10.48	10.02
Over 8.5	70% 21/30	83% 24/29
Over 9.5	43% 13/30	72% 21/29
Over 10.5	37% 11/30	52% 15/29
Cards
Cards	1.93	2.63
Opponent cards	1.73	2.33
Match total	3.66	4.96	3.94
Over 3.5	50% 15/30	70% 21/30
Over 4.5	43% 13/30	63% 19/30

	Everton	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	4.89	6.50
Corners conceded	4.67	2.90
Match total	9.56	9.40	10.02
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.20
Opponent cards	2.00	1.90
Match total	3.70	4.10	3.94
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Samuel Barrott 79 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.63league 3.79

Red cards0.06league 0.13

Cards 5+30%league 40%

Fouls20.3league 21.5

Penalties0.24league 0.22

Home wins37%league 42%

Everton5 with this referee

Record1-1-3 Cards · opp.2.6 · 1.8 Pens for · against0 · 2

L20 Dec 25H · Arsenal0–12
D29 Sep 25H · West Ham1–13
L15 Jan 25H · Aston Villa0–12
L30 Mar 24A · Bournemouth1–22
W11 Nov 23A · Crystal Palace3–24

Chelsea3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.1.3 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

D30 Dec 25H · Bournemouth2–21
L26 Dec 24H · Fulham1–21
W21 Sep 24A · West Ham3–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.