Everton
Attack+2%
Defense risk+5%
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Everton were without V. Mykolenko. Everton had 5.9 days of rest, Chelsea 6.9 and had to travel 286 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel286 kmRest days5.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Everton41%
Draw24%
Chelsea35%
Everton40%
Draw27%
Chelsea33%
Everton42%
Draw24%
Chelsea34%
Everton33%
Draw24%
Chelsea43%
Everton41%
Draw24%
Chelsea34%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 67%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Liverpool, Merseyside)
12°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 11 km/h
- Humidity 57%
RefereePaul Tierney
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.16
- Matches 130
Team strength
Everton
Chelsea
69
L90 StrengthIn forecast
75
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
77
61
AttackIn forecast
77
66
DefenceIn forecast
74
62
Form indexContext
68
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisChelsea
Attack+4%
Defense risk−7%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
EvertonChelsea
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
0.83
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.17
1.51
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
-0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+1.09
83%
Scored inContext
83%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
15.83
ShotsContext
13.67
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.33
32%
On target shareContext
39%
10.83
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
68%
Box shareContext
64%
8%
ConversionContext
18%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.75
13.00
Shots allowedContext
13.50
3.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
5.00
BlocksContext
3.67
2.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.17
74%
Save rateContext
69%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
438
PassesContext
429
367
Accurate passesContext
357
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.08
Team ratingContext
7.05
7.33
FoulsContext
8.33
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.33
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.48
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.74
80%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.20
ShotsContext
12.60
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
33%
On target shareContext
37%
9.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
70%
Box shareContext
60%
10%
ConversionContext
16%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.50
14.70
Shots allowedContext
12.50
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
5.89
BlocksContext
3.20
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
68%
Save rateContext
67%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
393
PassesContext
462
324
Accurate passesContext
391
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.93
10.40
FoulsContext
10.20
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Everton
DDDWD
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km357 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 62 · 7 pts vs 5.6 for an average club · -0.2 vs expected
Chelsea
WLDLW
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel286 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 68 · 7 pts vs 5.0 for an average club · +0.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Everton |
Chelsea |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Premier League 2026-2027, 11 Oct | 6.9Premier League 2026-2027, 10 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 286 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 357 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Everton
Confirmed XI
1J. Pickford(G)
16V. Mykolenko
4J. Branthwaite
6J. Tarkowski
2A. Maitland-Niles
37J. Garner
45H. Armstrong
10J. Grealish
8K. Dewsbury-Hall
34M. Röhl
11T. Barry
Chelsea
Confirmed XI
1E. Martínez(G)
21J. Hato
6L. Colwill
5M. Lacroix
34J. Acheampong
14J. Henderson
25M. Caicedo
17M. Rogers
10C. Palmer
7Pedro Neto
9João Pedro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Everton
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals
Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −11.8% of weighted minutes
- DEF V. Mykolenko Starter 6.78 Def −11.8%
Chelsea
Attack line −1.6% · Defence line −0.0% of weighted minutes
- ATT J. Gittens Rotation 6.68 Att −1.6%
Total impact vs full squads
- Everton-0.7 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Chelsea+0.8 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Everton · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
Chelsea · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Everton | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Hull City | D 2–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Bournemouth | D 1–1 A | W 5–1 H |
| Points | 2 of 6 · 1.00 per game | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
3 Everton wins3 draws4 Chelsea wins
Goals per game0.90 – 1.30
Over 2.530%
Both scored20%
Clean sheets40% · 50%
- 21 Mar 2026Everton3–0Chelsea
- 13 Dec 2025Chelsea2–0Everton
- 26 Apr 2025Chelsea1–0Everton
- 22 Dec 2024Everton0–0Chelsea
- 15 Apr 2024Chelsea6–0Everton
- 10 Dec 2023Everton2–0Chelsea
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Everton | Chelsea | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.83 | 2.17 | |
| Match goals | 2.17 | 4.67 | 3.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 100% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 83% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Everton | Chelsea | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 4.00 | 3.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 90% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Everton | Chelsea | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.80 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 11.20 | 11.17 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 3/5 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.50 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Everton | Chelsea | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.78 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.78 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 11.56 | 10.00 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 5.40 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Paul Tierney 130 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.78league 3.83
Red cards0.12league 0.15
Cards 5+41%league 42%
Fouls22.2league 23.0
Penalties0.16league 0.17
Home wins39%league 38%
Everton8 with this referee
Record2-1-5
Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.6
Pens for · against0 · 2
- W22 Aug 26H · Crystal Palace2–00
- L15 Apr 24A · Chelsea0–64
- D19 Feb 24H · Crystal Palace1–10
- W2 Dec 23A · Nottingham Forest1–00
- L15 Oct 22A · Tottenham0–24
Chelsea14 with this referee
Record8-2-4
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.8
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds2
- L14 Mar 26H · Newcastle0–12
- W15 Apr 24H · Everton6–01
- L31 Jan 24A · Liverpool1–44
- W30 Dec 23A · Luton3–22
- D13 May 23H · Nottingham Forest2–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Everton6 games · scored 8 · conceded 5
1
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Chelsea6 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
7
0-15
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
76-90
Everton10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
2
0-15
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
6
76-90
Chelsea10 games · scored 20 · conceded 20
7
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
5
46-60
5
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
