Everton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Everton were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Everton had 4.8 days of rest, Fulham 7 and had to travel 286 km.
Away travel286 kmRest days4.8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Everton44%
Draw26%
Fulham30%
Everton44%
Draw27%
Fulham29%
Everton44%
Draw26%
Fulham30%
Everton36%
Draw26%
Fulham37%
Everton44%
Draw27%
Fulham30%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Liverpool, Merseyside)
No weather data yet
RefereeAndy Madley
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 119
Team strength
Everton
Fulham
65
L90 StrengthIn forecast
65
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
61
AttackIn forecast
66
66
DefenceIn forecast
68
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFulham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EvertonFulham
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
-0.33
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.80
ShotsContext
11.30
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.78
28%
On target shareContext
30%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.30
69%
Box shareContext
65%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.60
Shots allowedContext
11.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
5.40
BlocksContext
3.00
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
63%
Save rateContext
70%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
380
PassesContext
436
302
Accurate passesContext
362
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.78
10.70
FoulsContext
14.00
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
-0.33
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.80
ShotsContext
11.30
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.78
28%
On target shareContext
30%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.30
69%
Box shareContext
65%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.60
Shots allowedContext
11.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
5.40
BlocksContext
3.00
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
63%
Save rateContext
70%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
380
PassesContext
436
302
Accurate passesContext
362
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.78
10.70
FoulsContext
14.00
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Everton
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km392 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fulham
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel286 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Everton |
Fulham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.8Premier League 2025-2026, 3 Nov | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 286 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 392 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 16.2 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Everton
Confirmed XI
1J. Pickford(G)
16V. Mykolenko
5M. Keane
6J. Tarkowski
37J. Garner
27I. Gueye
42T. Iroegbunam
18J. Grealish
22K. Dewsbury-Hall
10I. Ndiaye
11T. Barry
Fulham
Confirmed XI
1B. Leno(G)
30K. Sessegnon
3C. Bassey
5J. Andersen
2K. Tete
16S. Berge
20S. Lukić
22Kevin
17A. Iwobi
8H. Wilson
7R. Jiménez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Everton
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fulham
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Everton-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Fulham+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Everton · Home
1.60points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Fulham · Away
0.20points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-4
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 2.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Everton | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | D 0–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Wolves | W 3–2 A | W 3–0 H |
| Brighton | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Leeds | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 7 of 12 · 1.75 per game | 7 of 12 · 1.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 Everton wins3 draws3 Fulham wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.25
Over 2.538%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 50%
- 10 May 2025Fulham1–3Everton
- 26 Oct 2024Everton1–1Fulham
- 30 Jan 2024Fulham0–0Everton
- 12 Aug 2023Everton0–1Fulham
- 15 Apr 2023Everton1–3Fulham
- 29 Oct 2022Fulham0–0Everton
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Everton | Fulham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.60 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Everton | Fulham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.60 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Everton | Fulham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 10.10 | 9.84 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.30 | 3.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Everton | Fulham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 10.10 | 9.84 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.30 | 3.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andy Madley 119 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.32league 3.58
Red cards0.11league 0.11
Cards 5+29%league 40%
Fouls23.1league 21.7
Penalties0.14league 0.18
Home wins48%league 50%
Everton14 with this referee
Record6-3-5
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.6
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D22 Feb 25H · Manchester United2–24
- L2 Nov 24A · Southampton0–12
- W28 Sep 24H · Crystal Palace2–12
- W24 Apr 24H · Liverpool2–00
- D2 Sep 23A · Sheffield Utd2–22
Fulham9 with this referee
Record4-1-4
Cards · opp.1.2 · 0.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L28 Sep 25A · Aston Villa1–34
- L25 May 25H · Manchester City0–20
- W16 Mar 25H · Tottenham2–00
- W11 Feb 23H · Nottingham Forest2–00
- W26 Dec 22A · Crystal Palace3–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Everton10 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Fulham10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
6
46-60
4
61-75
2
4
76-90
Everton10 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Fulham10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
6
46-60
4
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
