Everton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Manchester City were slight favourites.
Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 70). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Manchester City. Everton had 9.2 days of rest, Manchester City 12 and had to travel 50 km.
Away travel50 kmRest days9.2 · 12Matches / 14d1 · 1
Everton24%
Draw22%
Manchester City55%
Everton26%
Draw26%
Manchester City48%
Everton23%
Draw22%
Manchester City55%
Everton18%
Draw19%
Manchester City63%
Everton25%
Draw23%
Manchester City52%
Over 2.5 69%
Both score 67%
Likeliest score 1–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Liverpool, Merseyside)
No weather data yet
RefereeMichael Oliver
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 200
Team strength
Everton
Manchester City
70
L90 StrengthIn forecast
89
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
91
61
AttackIn forecast
92
66
DefenceIn forecast
82
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisManchester City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EvertonManchester City
1.21
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.21
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.88
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.88
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
74%
Scored inContext
88%
32%
Clean sheetsContext
42%
11.03
ShotsContext
15.27
3.68
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.42
33%
On target shareContext
36%
7.55
Shots in the boxContext
11.27
68%
Box shareContext
74%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.71
13.59
Shots allowedContext
9.79
4.27
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.33
4.38
BlocksContext
3.10
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
66%
Save rateContext
73%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
387
PassesContext
589
309
Accurate passesContext
522
80%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.95
Team ratingContext
7.11
10.32
FoulsContext
10.00
11.41
Fouls sufferedContext
11.24
1.82
Yellow cardsContext
1.79
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
1.84
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.24
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.10
ShotsContext
17.80
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.40
41%
On target shareContext
36%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
12.60
68%
Box shareContext
70%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
1.89
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.50
Shots allowedContext
10.60
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
4.00
BlocksContext
3.33
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
61%
Save rateContext
72%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
408
PassesContext
619
329
Accurate passesContext
556
81%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.94
Team ratingContext
7.13
9.90
FoulsContext
9.30
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Everton
Rest9.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km573 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Manchester City
Rest12 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel50 km71 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Everton |
Manchester City |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.2Premier League 2025-2026, 25 Apr | 12Premier League 2025-2026, 22 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 50 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 573 km | 71 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 4.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Everton
Confirmed XI
1J. Pickford(G)
16V. Mykolenko
5M. Keane
6J. Tarkowski
15J. O'Brien
37J. Garner
42T. Iroegbunam
10I. Ndiaye
22K. Dewsbury-Hall
34M. Röhl
9Beto
Manchester City
Confirmed XI
25G. Donnarumma(G)
33N. O'Reilly
15A. Guéhi
45A. Khusanov
27M. Nunes
20Bernardo Silva
14Nico González
11J. Doku
10M. Cherki
42A. Semenyo
9E. Haaland
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Everton
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Manchester City
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Everton+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Manchester City+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Everton · Home
1.29points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-7
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.24
Manchester City · Away
1.82points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 9-4-4
- Scored
- 1.65
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Everton | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H |
| Liverpool | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A | W 2–1 AW 3–0 H |
| Brentford | D 2–2 AL 2–4 H | W 1–0 A |
| Chelsea | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A | W 3–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Arsenal | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Burnley | W 2–0 HD 0–0 A | W 1–0 AW 5–1 H |
| Newcastle | W 3–2 AL 1–4 H | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Manchester United | L 0–1 HW 1–0 A | L 0–2 AW 3–0 H |
| Bournemouth | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Fulham | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H | W 3–0 HW 5–4 A |
| Brighton | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Leeds | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | W 1–0 AW 3–2 H |
| Aston Villa | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Wolves | D 1–1 HW 3–2 A | W 2–0 HW 4–0 A |
| Nottingham Forest | W 2–0 AW 3–0 H | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Sunderland | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Tottenham | L 0–3 H | D 2–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Crystal Palace | W 2–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| Points | 47 of 99 · 1.42 per game | 67 of 96 · 2.09 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
0 Everton wins2 draws8 Manchester City wins
Goals per game0.30 – 2.30
Over 2.540%
Both scored30%
Clean sheets0% · 70%
- 18 Oct 2025Manchester City2–0Everton
- 19 Apr 2025Everton0–2Manchester City
- 26 Dec 2024Manchester City1–1Everton
- 10 Feb 2024Manchester City2–0Everton
- 27 Dec 2023Everton1–3Manchester City
- 14 May 2023Everton0–3Manchester City
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Everton | Manchester City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.21 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.21 | 0.88 | |
| Match goals | 2.41 | 2.88 | 3.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 41% | 61% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 15% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 48% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 32% | 42% | |
| Failed to score | 26% | 12% | |
| Games | 34 | 33 |
| Everton | Manchester City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.70 | 3.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Everton | Manchester City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.21 | 6.09 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.06 | 3.84 | |
| Match total | 9.27 | 9.93 | 10.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 22/34 | 66% 21/32 | |
| Over 9.5 | 41% 14/34 | 50% 16/32 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 12/34 | 38% 12/32 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.94 | 1.79 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.68 | 2.06 | |
| Match total | 3.62 | 3.85 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% 16/34 | 64% 21/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 41% 14/34 | 33% 11/33 | |
| Everton | Manchester City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 8.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 11.80 | 10.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.70 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michael Oliver 200 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.68league 3.79
Red cards0.13league 0.12
Cards 5+35%league 39%
Fouls22.4league 21.5
Penalties0.21league 0.21
Home wins42%league 43%
Everton23 with this referee
Record9-6-8
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against4 · 0
Reds5
- W30 Dec 25A · Nottingham Forest2–00
- W30 Aug 25A · Wolves3–21
- W18 May 25H · Southampton2–01
- D12 Feb 25H · Liverpool2–24
- W19 Oct 24A · Ipswich2–01
Manchester City24 with this referee
Record17-4-3
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.1
Pens for · against2 · 4
- D14 Mar 26A · West Ham1–12
- D4 Jan 26H · Chelsea1–13
- L26 Oct 25A · Aston Villa0–14
- W29 Dec 24A · Leicester2–01
- W4 Dec 24H · Nottingham Forest3–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Everton34 games · scored 41 · conceded 41
3
4
0-15
7
9
16-30
7
5
31-45
6
6
46-60
4
7
61-75
14
10
76-90
Manchester City33 games · scored 66 · conceded 29
9
0-15
9
4
16-30
19
5
31-45
8
6
46-60
13
8
61-75
8
6
76-90
Everton10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
6
76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 16 · conceded 10
2
0-15
4
5
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
