Everton vs Newcastle

Premier League Gameweek 24 Sat, Feb 6 · 15:00 Goodison Park, Liverpool

Everton 8th · 10 pts · 7 played DDWDL

VS— Compare

Newcastle 11th · 8 pts · 7 played DLWLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel195 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Everton—%

Draw—%

Newcastle—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Liverpool)

Forecast from 22 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Trend Newcastle 71% Both teams scored Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Everton

Newcastle

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

67 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

61 AttackIn forecast 61

66 DefenceIn forecast 61

50 Form indexContext 35

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Everton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Newcastle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Everton

Newcastle

1.14 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.43

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.37 xGVia Att/Def 1.19

1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.74

-0.23 Goals minus xGContext +0.24

71% Scored inContext 86%

43% Clean sheetsContext 14%

14.43 ShotsContext 12.29

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.57

35% On target shareContext 29%

10.83 Shots in the boxContext 7.57

68% Box shareContext 62%

8% ConversionContext 12%

2.29 OffsidesContext 2.71

13.71 Shots allowedContext 17.43

4.29 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.29

5.00 BlocksContext 7.57

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.29

70% Save rateContext 62%

47% PossessionIn forecast 52%

433 PassesContext 430

361 Accurate passesContext 359

83% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.98 Team ratingContext 6.75

7.43 FoulsContext 12.14

13.29 Fouls sufferedContext 11.29

1.71 Yellow cardsContext 2.71

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.26 xGVia Att/Def 1.19

1.44 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.60

-0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.21

70% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

13.40 ShotsContext 12.40

4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

34% On target shareContext 32%

9.89 Shots in the boxContext 7.30

70% Box shareContext 59%

8% ConversionContext 11%

2.25 OffsidesContext 2.44

14.40 Shots allowedContext 17.50

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.70

5.44 BlocksContext 6.90

3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.90

70% Save rateContext 68%

47% PossessionIn forecast 53%

414 PassesContext 452

342 Accurate passesContext 380

83% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.80

9.70 FoulsContext 11.00

12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Everton DDWDL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 50 · 6 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected

L17 OctH · Chelsea0–21.5 xPts
D11 OctA · Hull City2–21.7 xPts
W19 SepH · Ipswich1–02.0 xPts
D12 SepA · Tottenham0–01.3 xPts
D6 SepH · Manchester United2–21.3 xPts

Newcastle DLWLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel195 km796 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 35 · 4 pts vs 5.7 for an average club · -3.3 vs expected

L17 OctH · Aston Villa0–11.2 xPts
L12 OctA · Coventry1–41.5 xPts
W19 SepH · Hull City2–12.0 xPts
L14 SepA · Leeds1–41.1 xPts
D5 SepH · Bournemouth2–21.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Everton	Newcastle
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Premier League 2026-2027, 30 Jan	7Premier League 2026-2027, 30 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	195 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	796 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4.2	4.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Everton Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Chelsea (H) 0–2, 17 Oct

1J. Pickford(G)

16V. Mykolenko 4J. Branthwaite 6J. Tarkowski 2A. Maitland-Niles

37J. Garner 45H. Armstrong

10J. Grealish 8K. Dewsbury-Hall 34M. Röhl

11T. Barry

Newcastle Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Aston Villa (H) 0–1, 17 Oct

21L. Horníček(G)

3L. Hall 4S. Botman 12M. Thiaw 67L. Miley

7Joelinton 6Nico González

11H. Barnes 28J. Willock 20M. Fernandez-Pardo

9Y. Wissa

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Everton Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Newcastle Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Everton · Home 1.75points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-1
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.00

Newcastle · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 2.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Everton	Newcastle
Hull City	D 2–2 A	W 2–1 H
Tottenham	D 0–0 A	W 2–0 A
Bournemouth	D 1–1 A	D 2–2 H
Points	3 of 9 · 1.00 per game	7 of 9 · 2.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

4 Everton wins2 draws4 Newcastle wins

Goals per game1.20 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets40% · 20%

28 Feb 2026Newcastle2–3Everton
29 Nov 2025Everton1–4Newcastle
25 May 2025Newcastle0–1Everton
5 Oct 2024Everton0–0Newcastle
2 Apr 2024Newcastle1–1Everton
7 Dec 2023Everton3–0Newcastle

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Everton	Newcastle
Scored per game	1.14	1.43
Conceded per game	1.00	2.00
Match goals	2.14	3.43
Over 1.5	71%	86%
Over 2.5	29%	71%
Over 3.5	29%	57%
Both teams scored	43%	71%
Clean sheets	43%	14%
Failed to score	29%	14%
Games	7	7

	Everton	Newcastle
Scored per game	1.10	1.40
Conceded per game	1.30	1.80
Match goals	2.40	3.20
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	60%
Over 3.5	40%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	70%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Everton	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	5.33	4.57
Corners conceded	6.00	5.29
Match total	11.33	9.86	9.49
Over 8.5	67% 4/6	57% 4/7
Over 9.5	67% 4/6	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	67% 4/6	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	1.71	2.71
Opponent cards	2.29	2.14
Match total	4.00	4.85	4.17
Over 3.5	57% 4/7	57% 4/7
Over 4.5	57% 4/7	57% 4/7

	Everton	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	5.78	4.80
Corners conceded	5.56	4.60
Match total	11.34	9.40	9.49
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.20
Opponent cards	1.90	2.20
Match total	3.80	4.40	4.17
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.