Premier League Gameweek 24 Sat, Feb 6 · 15:00 Emirates Stadium, London
Arsenal 2nd · 18 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Liverpool 5th · 12 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel286 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Arsenal—%
Draw—%
Liverpool—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (London)

Forecast from 22 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Arsenal and Liverpool. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

ArsenalLiverpool
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
94 Current StrengthIn forecast 84
86 AttackIn forecast 85
95 DefenceIn forecast 84
92 Form indexContext 87
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Arsenal

Attack—
Defense risk—

Liverpool

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

ArsenalLiverpool
1.57 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29
0.71 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.14
1.67 xGVia Att/Def 1.55
0.78 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.20
-0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.26
86% Scored inContext 71%
57% Clean sheetsContext 43%
12.29 ShotsContext 15.71
4.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
34% On target shareContext 32%
8.71 Shots in the boxContext 8.71
73% Box shareContext 55%
13% ConversionContext 8%
4.00 OffsidesContext 2.14
11.14 Shots allowedContext 11.86
3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.43
3.00 BlocksContext 3.86
2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.29
71% Save rateContext 67%
61% PossessionIn forecast 56%
520 PassesContext 482
453 Accurate passesContext 408
87% Pass accuracyContext 85%
7.06 Team ratingContext 6.90
10.14 FoulsContext 13.86
15.86 Fouls sufferedContext 10.29
1.29 Yellow cardsContext 2.57
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80
0.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.89
0.85 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29
+0.04 Goals minus xGContext -0.09
90% Scored inContext 80%
60% Clean sheetsContext 30%
13.50 ShotsContext 17.40
4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70
34% On target shareContext 33%
9.30 Shots in the boxContext 11.00
71% Box shareContext 62%
12% ConversionContext 10%
3.60 OffsidesContext 2.50
10.80 Shots allowedContext 11.50
3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40
3.10 BlocksContext 3.20
2.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.10
75% Save rateContext 62%
57% PossessionIn forecast 56%
508 PassesContext 487
441 Accurate passesContext 417
87% Pass accuracyContext 86%
7.06 Team ratingContext 6.99
11.20 FoulsContext 12.10
14.30 Fouls sufferedContext 9.80
1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.10
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Arsenal
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km524 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 92 · 12 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Nottingham Forest1–01.9 xPts
  • W13 OctH · Lille3–02.5 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Leeds2–12.2 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Brighton0–31.8 xPts
  • W12 SepA · Sunderland2–02.0 xPts
Liverpool
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel286 km99 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 87 · 10 pts vs 4.7 for an average club · +2.5 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Brentford2–11.3 xPts
  • W14 OctA · Lask Linz6–31.8 xPts
  • L11 OctH · Manchester City0–31.3 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Bournemouth1–01.2 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Fulham0–02.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Arsenal Liverpool
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 15Low · 15
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Premier League 2026-2027, 30 Jan7Premier League 2026-2027, 30 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km286 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways524 km99 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 3 / 51 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one4.24.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Arsenal Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Nottingham Forest (A) 1–0, 18 Oct
1David Raya(G)
33R. Calafiori 6Gabriel Magalhães 15E. Konsa 4B. White
39Bruno Guimarães 41D. Rice
10E. Eze 8M. Ødegaard 7B. Saka
29K. Havertz
Liverpool Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Brentford (A) 2–1, 17 Oct
1A. Becker(G)
6M. Kerkez 4V. van Dijk 5J. Jacquet 33R. Araujo
8D. Szoboszlai 10A. Mac Allister
29B. Barcola 7F. Wirtz 23Víctor Muñoz
9A. Isak

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Arsenal Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Liverpool Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Arsenal · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
3-0-0
Scored
2.33
Conceded
0.67
Liverpool · Away 2.50points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
3-1-0
Scored
1.75
Conceded
0.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentArsenalLiverpool
Nottingham Forest W 1–0 A D 2–2 H
Points3 of 3 · 3.00 per game1 of 3 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

2 Arsenal wins5 draws3 Liverpool wins
Goals per game1.30 – 1.70 Over 2.560% Both scored60% Clean sheets10% · 40%
  • 8 Jan 2026Arsenal0–0Liverpool
  • 31 Aug 2025Liverpool1–0Arsenal
  • 11 May 2025Liverpool2–2Arsenal
  • 27 Oct 2024Arsenal2–2Liverpool
  • 4 Feb 2024Arsenal3–1Liverpool
  • 23 Dec 2023Liverpool1–1Arsenal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

ArsenalLiverpoolForecast
Scored per game 1.571.29
Conceded per game 0.711.14
Match goals 2.292.43
Over 1.5 71%71%
Over 2.5 57%57%
Over 3.5 0%29%
Both teams scored 29%43%
Clean sheets 57%43%
Failed to score 14%29%
Games77
ArsenalLiverpoolForecast
Scored per game 1.701.80
Conceded per game 0.601.30
Match goals 2.303.10
Over 1.5 70%80%
Over 2.5 60%60%
Over 3.5 0%30%
Both teams scored 30%60%
Clean sheets 60%30%
Failed to score 10%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

ArsenalLiverpoolLeague
Corners
Corners won4.714.86
Corners conceded4.004.43
Match total8.719.299.49
Over 8.543% 3/743% 3/7
Over 9.543% 3/743% 3/7
Over 10.529% 2/743% 3/7
Cards
Cards1.292.71
Opponent cards3.292.43
Match total4.585.144.17
Over 3.571% 5/771% 5/7
Over 4.557% 4/757% 4/7
ArsenalLiverpoolLeague
Corners
Corners won4.676.60
Corners conceded4.444.10
Match total9.1110.709.49
Over 8.544% 4/960% 6/10
Over 9.544% 4/960% 6/10
Over 10.533% 3/960% 6/10
Cards
Cards1.602.20
Opponent cards2.802.20
Match total4.404.404.17
Over 3.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 4.550% 5/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Arsenal6 games · scored 10 · conceded 5
1 1 0-15
2 16-30
2 31-45
3 2 46-60
2 61-75
2 76-90
Liverpool7 games · scored 9 · conceded 8
2 1 0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
3 1 46-60
2 3 61-75
2 1 76-90
Arsenal9 games · scored 15 · conceded 6
2 1 0-15
2 16-30
2 31-45
3 2 46-60
6 1 61-75
2 76-90
Liverpool10 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
2 1 0-15
2 2 16-30
2 1 31-45
6 1 46-60
4 6 61-75
2 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Manchester United Chelsea Feb 615:00 Fulham Manchester City Feb 615:00 Arsenal Liverpool Feb 615:00 Everton Newcastle Feb 615:00 Brighton Hull City Feb 615:00 Crystal Palace Coventry Feb 615:00 Ipswich Tottenham Feb 615:00 Leeds Bournemouth Feb 615:00 Nottingham Forest Brentford Feb 615:00 Sunderland Aston Villa Feb 615:00