Excelsior
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Excelsior had 14.7 days of rest, Fortuna Sittard 14.8 and had to travel 141 km.
Away travel141 kmRest days14.7 · 14.8Matches / 14d0 · 0
Excelsior41%
Draw27%
Fortuna Sittard33%
Excelsior40%
Draw27%
Fortuna Sittard33%
Excelsior40%
Draw27%
Fortuna Sittard33%
Excelsior33%
Draw27%
Fortuna Sittard40%
Excelsior41%
Draw27%
Fortuna Sittard32%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsAlex Bos
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 29
Team strength
Excelsior
Fortuna Sittard
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
21
AttackIn forecast
19
18
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFortuna Sittard
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ExcelsiorFortuna Sittard
0.88
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.63
2.13
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
2.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
-0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.53
75%
Scored inContext
88%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
11.88
ShotsContext
12.63
3.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.71
33%
On target shareContext
33%
7.25
Shots in the boxContext
8.38
61%
Box shareContext
64%
7%
ConversionContext
13%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.83
18.00
Shots allowedContext
13.50
7.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.88
5.00
BlocksContext
3.75
5.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
69%
Save rateContext
72%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
349
PassesContext
391
264
Accurate passesContext
305
76%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.80
14.13
FoulsContext
13.00
8.63
Fouls sufferedContext
10.38
1.38
Yellow cardsContext
2.13
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
2.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
2.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
80%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.80
ShotsContext
12.30
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.22
36%
On target shareContext
31%
7.22
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
61%
Box shareContext
65%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
1.29
OffsidesContext
1.75
17.00
Shots allowedContext
13.30
7.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
4.60
BlocksContext
3.80
4.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
65%
Save rateContext
76%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
362
PassesContext
387
276
Accurate passesContext
302
76%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.84
12.90
FoulsContext
12.30
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Excelsior
Rest14.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fortuna Sittard
Rest14.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel141 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Excelsior |
Fortuna Sittard |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 4 Oct | 14.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 4 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 141 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.3 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Excelsior
Confirmed XI
1S. van Gassel(G)
12A. Zagré
3R. Meissen
4C. Widell
2Ilias Bronkhorst
6A. Carlén
18C. Nadje
11G. de Regt
23I. Yegoian
22S. Mitrović
9S. Włodarczyk
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed XI
31M. Branderhorst(G)
8J. Dahlhaus
44Iván Márquez
4S. Adewoye
12Ivo Pinto
80R. Fosso
23P. Brittijn
7K. Peterson
17J. Lonwijk
18D. Limnios
9K. Sierhuis
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Excelsior
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fortuna Sittard
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Excelsior+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Fortuna Sittard-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Excelsior · Home
0.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.25
Fortuna Sittard · Away
0.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Excelsior | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| FC Volendam | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Twente | W 1–0 H | L 2–3 A |
| Utrecht | L 1–4 A | W 1–0 H |
| Feyenoord | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 0–5 A | W 3–2 H |
| Points | 6 of 15 · 1.20 per game | 9 of 15 · 1.80 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Excelsior wins1 draws0 Fortuna Sittard wins
Goals per game2.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 26 Aug 2023Excelsior2–2Fortuna Sittard
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Excelsior | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.88 | 1.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.13 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.13 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 63% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 63% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 13% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Excelsior | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.88 | 1.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.13 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.13 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 63% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 63% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 13% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Excelsior | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.63 | 4.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.88 | 5.86 | |
| Match total | 8.51 | 10.15 | 9.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.63 | 2.13 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.25 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 2.88 | 3.63 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 4/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 3/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Excelsior | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 5.44 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 10.33 | 9.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.30 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alex Bos Netherlands · 29 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.45league 3.51
Red cards0.31league 0.22
Cards 5+28%league 36%
Fouls22.9league 22.5
Penalties0.38league 0.26
Home wins45%league 49%
Excelsior2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D16 Dec 23H · GO Ahead Eagles1–10
- L29 Oct 23A · FC Volendam1–32
Fortuna Sittard4 with this referee
Record3-0-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L12 Apr 25H · Feyenoord0–22
- W22 Dec 24A · Utrecht5–23
- W11 Aug 24A · GO Ahead Eagles2–01
- W2 Dec 23H · Vitesse3–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Excelsior8 games · scored 7 · conceded 17
4
1
0-15
3
16-30
3
31-45
3
46-60
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
Fortuna Sittard8 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
4
0-15
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
6
2
76-90
Excelsior10 games · scored 10 · conceded 23
5
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
4
31-45
1
4
46-60
4
61-75
3
6
76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
4
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
7
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
