Excelsior
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Excelsior were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Excelsior. Excelsior had 6.9 days of rest, NAC Breda 7 and had to travel 43 km.
Away travel43 kmRest days6.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Excelsior44%
Draw26%
NAC Breda30%
Excelsior45%
Draw27%
NAC Breda28%
Excelsior45%
Draw26%
NAC Breda29%
Excelsior36%
Draw27%
NAC Breda37%
Excelsior44%
Draw26%
NAC Breda30%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 81
Team strength
Excelsior
NAC Breda
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
15
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
14
21
AttackIn forecast
19
18
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNAC Breda
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ExcelsiorNAC Breda
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.15
1.85
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.69
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.91
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.70
-0.24
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
77%
Scored inContext
69%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
8%
12.08
ShotsContext
11.85
4.15
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.25
34%
On target shareContext
33%
7.46
Shots in the boxContext
7.62
61%
Box shareContext
62%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
1.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
16.15
Shots allowedContext
13.08
6.77
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.31
4.62
BlocksContext
3.00
4.69
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.62
69%
Save rateContext
68%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
358
PassesContext
380
276
Accurate passesContext
299
77%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.75
13.31
FoulsContext
11.85
8.77
Fouls sufferedContext
12.69
1.31
Yellow cardsContext
1.77
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.23
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.81
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.80
ShotsContext
12.60
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
33%
On target shareContext
34%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
60%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.88
16.20
Shots allowedContext
12.20
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
5.10
BlocksContext
2.60
4.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
77%
Save rateContext
69%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
355
PassesContext
391
273
Accurate passesContext
309
77%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.73
12.70
FoulsContext
11.50
8.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Excelsior
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km115 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
NAC Breda
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel43 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Excelsior |
NAC Breda |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 22 Nov | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 22 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 43 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 115 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Excelsior
Confirmed XI
1S. van Gassel(G)
17Nolan Martens
3R. Meissen
4C. Widell
2Ilias Bronkhorst
20L. Hartjes
23I. Yegoian
11G. de Regt
10N. Naujoks
30D. Sanches Fernandes
33Jerolldino Bergraaf
NAC Breda
Confirmed XI
99D. Bielica(G)
4B. Kemper
22R. Hillen
3D. Odoi
25C. Valerius
2B. Lucassen
14K. Sowah
16M. Balard
10M. Nassoh
17S. van Hooijdonk
7C. Brym
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Excelsior
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
NAC Breda
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Excelsior-1.1 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- NAC Breda+1.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Excelsior · Home
1.00points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-4
- Scored
- 0.83
- Conceded
- 1.17
NAC Breda · Away
0.33points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-4
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 2.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Excelsior | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| Ajax | W 2–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Heracles | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Heerenveen | L 1–2 A | D 3–3 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| FC Volendam | W 2–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Twente | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Feyenoord | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 0–5 A | L 0–3 A |
| Points | 12 of 30 · 1.20 per game | 11 of 30 · 1.10 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Excelsior | NAC Breda | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.15 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.85 | 1.69 | |
| Match goals | 2.85 | 2.85 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 69% | 69% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 62% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 8% | |
| Failed to score | 23% | 31% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Excelsior | NAC Breda | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.90 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Excelsior | NAC Breda | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.38 | 4.54 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.38 | 4.15 | |
| Match total | 9.76 | 8.69 | 9.99 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 8/13 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 5/13 | 31% 4/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 5/13 | 31% 4/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.46 | 2.08 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.38 | 2.08 | |
| Match total | 2.84 | 4.16 | 3.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 31% 4/13 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 23% 3/13 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Excelsior | NAC Breda | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 9.30 | 9.99 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 4.10 | 3.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 81 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.07league 3.29
Red cards0.12league 0.22
Cards 5+43%league 31%
Fouls23.4league 21.9
Penalties0.31league 0.27
Home wins47%league 48%
Excelsior2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L17 Feb 24A · Sparta Rotterdam2–42
- L25 Nov 23H · Feyenoord2–41
NAC Breda2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D7 Mar 25H · Sparta Rotterdam1–11
- W7 Dec 24A · Sparta Rotterdam2–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Excelsior13 games · scored 13 · conceded 24
6
2
0-15
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
6
46-60
4
61-75
4
5
76-90
NAC Breda13 games · scored 15 · conceded 22
1
4
0-15
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
5
5
46-60
3
61-75
4
6
76-90
Excelsior10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
5
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
NAC Breda10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
