Excelsior vs Willem II

Eredivisie Gameweek 30 Sun, Apr 25 · 16:00 Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam

Excelsior 10th · 11 pts · 9 played DLDLL

VS— Compare

Willem II 18th · 2 pts · 9 played DLLLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel59 kmRest days14 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1

Real contextStrength only

Excelsior—%

Draw—%

Willem II—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Rotterdam)

Forecast from 10 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Willem II 4 Losses in a row Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row

Team strength

Excelsior

Willem II

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

21 Current StrengthIn forecast 10

21 AttackIn forecast 10

18 DefenceIn forecast 9

11 Form indexContext 8

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Excelsior

Attack—

Defense risk—

Willem II

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Excelsior

Willem II

1.78 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.89

1.60 xGVia Att/Def 1.28

1.93 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.25

+0.18 Goals minus xGContext -0.28

89% Scored inContext 78%

22% Clean sheetsContext 0%

10.78 ShotsContext 11.67

3.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.78

35% On target shareContext 24%

8.25 Shots in the boxContext 7.78

70% Box shareContext 68%

17% ConversionContext 9%

1.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

15.67 Shots allowedContext 20.33

5.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.33

4.22 BlocksContext 4.33

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.44

64% Save rateContext 61%

43% PossessionIn forecast 40%

390 PassesContext 356

309 Accurate passesContext 276

79% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.47

11.56 FoulsContext 9.78

7.33 Fouls sufferedContext 9.89

1.22 Yellow cardsContext 1.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.60

1.47 xGVia Att/Def 1.28

1.89 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.25

+0.43 Goals minus xGContext -0.28

90% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.30 ShotsContext 11.67

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.78

34% On target shareContext 24%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.78

66% Box shareContext 68%

17% ConversionContext 9%

1.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

15.80 Shots allowedContext 20.33

5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.33

4.50 BlocksContext 4.33

3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.44

65% Save rateContext 61%

43% PossessionIn forecast 40%

389 PassesContext 356

309 Accurate passesContext 276

79% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.47

11.80 FoulsContext 9.78

7.60 Fouls sufferedContext 9.89

1.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Excelsior DLDLL

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km403 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 11 · 2 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -4.1 vs expected

L16 OctA · Heerenveen0–40.9 xPts
L11 OctH · Groningen1–51.7 xPts
D19 SepA · Ajax2–20.7 xPts
L13 SepH · Utrecht1–21.9 xPts
D8 SepA · NEC Nijmegen2–21.0 xPts

Willem II DLLLL

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel59 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 8 · 1 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · -2.5 vs expected

L17 OctA · Sparta Rotterdam2–30.8 xPts
L11 OctA · Utrecht1–30.7 xPts
L19 SepH · Fortuna Sittard0–11.4 xPts
L15 SepA · Ajax1–50.3 xPts
D11 SepA · AZ Alkmaar1–10.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Excelsior	Willem II
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14Eredivisie 2026-2027, 11 Apr	14Eredivisie 2026-2027, 11 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	59 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	403 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Excelsior Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Heerenveen (A) 0–4, 16 Oct

1S. van Gassel(G)

15Simon Janssen 14J. Plug 4C. Widell 2E. da Silva Moreira

20L. Hartjes 3R. Meissen 8I. Yegoian

30Á. Þorsteinsson 19D. Garden 7Aymen Sliti

Willem II Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Sparta Rotterdam (A) 2–3, 17 Oct

26M. Delanghe(G)

24N. Tjoe-A-On 23M. Dekker 3F. Stam 5H. ter Avest

52T. Vilhena 18Anass Zarrouk

32Vito van Crooij 19U. van Aalst 7J. Slory

9D. Haen

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Excelsior Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Willem II Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Excelsior · Home 0.75points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-3
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 2.50

Willem II · Away 0.20points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-4
Scored: 1.20
Conceded: 3.20

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	Excelsior	Willem II
Heerenveen	L 0–4 A	D 2–2 H
Ajax	D 2–2 A	L 1–5 A
Utrecht	L 1–2 H	L 1–3 A
NEC Nijmegen	D 2–2 A	L 1–4 H
Sparta Rotterdam	W 2–1 H	L 2–3 A
Points	5 of 15 · 1.00 per game	1 of 15 · 0.20 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

1 Excelsior wins0 draws0 Willem II wins

Goals per game3.00 – 0.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 0%

5 Sep 2026Willem II0–3Excelsior

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Excelsior	Willem II
Scored per game	1.78	1.00
Conceded per game	2.00	2.89
Match goals	3.78	3.89
Over 1.5	100%	89%
Over 2.5	100%	78%
Over 3.5	56%	67%
Both teams scored	67%	78%
Clean sheets	22%	0%
Failed to score	11%	22%
Games	9	9

	Excelsior	Willem II
Scored per game	1.90	1.00
Conceded per game	2.00	2.89
Match goals	3.90	3.89
Over 1.5	100%	89%
Over 2.5	100%	78%
Over 3.5	60%	67%
Both teams scored	70%	78%
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Failed to score	10%	22%
Games	10	9

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Excelsior	Willem II	League
Corners
Corners won	4.25	3.78
Corners conceded	4.50	6.56
Match total	8.75	10.34	10.39
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.22	1.33
Opponent cards	0.78	1.11
Match total	2.00	2.44	2.77
Over 3.5	11% 1/9	22% 2/9
Over 4.5	0% 0/9	11% 1/9

	Excelsior	Willem II	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	3.78
Corners conceded	4.56	6.56
Match total	8.56	10.34	10.39
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.10	1.30
Opponent cards	1.10	1.40
Match total	2.20	2.70	2.77
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.