Eredivisie Gameweek 30 Sun, Apr 25 · 16:00 Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven 3rd · 19 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Ajax 4th · 18 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel111 kmRest days14 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
PSV Eindhoven—%
Draw—%
Ajax—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Eindhoven)

Forecast from 10 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for PSV Eindhoven and Ajax. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

PSV EindhovenAjax
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
71 Current StrengthIn forecast 53
60 AttackIn forecast 66
64 DefenceIn forecast 55
32 Form indexContext 63
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

PSV Eindhoven

Attack—
Defense risk—

Ajax

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

PSV EindhovenAjax
3.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.00
1.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33
2.43 xGVia Att/Def 2.06
0.91 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12
+0.57 Goals minus xGContext +0.94
100% Scored inContext 100%
11% Clean sheetsContext 22%
19.44 ShotsContext 22.78
7.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 8.11
37% On target shareContext 36%
13.44 Shots in the boxContext 16.22
71% Box shareContext 71%
15% ConversionContext 13%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.13
10.89 Shots allowedContext 10.00
4.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
3.29 BlocksContext 2.67
3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.13
67% Save rateContext 74%
61% PossessionIn forecast 62%
573 PassesContext 581
508 Accurate passesContext 516
89% Pass accuracyContext 89%
7.01 Team ratingContext 7.03
9.78 FoulsContext 9.56
9.89 Fouls sufferedContext 9.89
1.56 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
2.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.90
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
2.27 xGVia Att/Def 2.03
1.11 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.96
+0.33 Goals minus xGContext +0.87
90% Scored inContext 100%
10% Clean sheetsContext 30%
17.30 ShotsContext 21.70
6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.80
38% On target shareContext 36%
11.60 Shots in the boxContext 15.40
67% Box shareContext 71%
15% ConversionContext 13%
2.22 OffsidesContext 2.33
11.70 Shots allowedContext 9.50
4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70
3.56 BlocksContext 2.60
3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89
71% Save rateContext 74%
58% PossessionIn forecast 62%
526 PassesContext 576
464 Accurate passesContext 509
88% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.95 Team ratingContext 7.05
10.50 FoulsContext 9.80
11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50
1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

PSV Eindhoven
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km253 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 32 · 6 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -4.7 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · ADO Den Haag1–22.4 xPts
  • L13 OctA · RB Leipzig0–11.2 xPts
  • W9 OctH · Heerenveen2–02.5 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Twente2–31.8 xPts
  • W13 SepH · Sparta Rotterdam4–12.7 xPts
Ajax
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel111 km70 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 63 · 11 pts vs 9.5 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Groningen5–21.4 xPts
  • D10 OctH · NEC Nijmegen1–12.1 xPts
  • D19 SepH · Excelsior2–22.1 xPts
  • W15 SepH · Willem II5–12.5 xPts
  • W12 SepA · Fortuna Sittard5–11.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
PSV Eindhoven Ajax
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14Eredivisie 2026-2027, 11 Apr14Eredivisie 2026-2027, 11 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km111 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways253 km70 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 20 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

PSV Eindhoven Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs ADO Den Haag (A) 1–2, 17 Oct
32M. Kovář(G)
18F. Kostić 4A. Obispo 2L. Geertruida 8S. Dest
17Mauro Júnior 24K. Sano
35A. Santos 20G. Til 27D. Man
21S. Mijnans
Ajax Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Groningen (A) 5–2, 18 Oct
1M. ter Stegen(G)
5O. Wijndal 36D. Janse 30A. Bouwman 2Lucas Rosa
24J. Mokio 4S. Amrabat 18D. Klaassen
10O. Gloukh 38Marcos Leonardo 8J. Brandt

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
PSV Eindhoven Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Ajax Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

PSV Eindhoven · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
3-1-0
Scored
3.25
Conceded
1.00
Ajax · Away 3.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
4-0-0
Scored
4.00
Conceded
0.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentPSV EindhovenAjax
Heerenveen W 2–0 H D 2–2 H
Groningen W 5–1 H W 5–2 A
Excelsior W 2–1 A D 2–2 H
Fortuna Sittard D 2–2 H W 5–1 A
Points10 of 12 · 2.50 per game8 of 12 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

2 PSV Eindhoven wins3 draws2 Ajax wins
Goals per game2.14 – 1.86 Over 2.571% Both scored86% Clean sheets0% · 14%
  • 5 Sep 2026Ajax1–3PSV Eindhoven
  • 2 May 2026Ajax2–2PSV Eindhoven
  • 21 Sep 2025PSV Eindhoven2–2Ajax
  • 30 Mar 2025PSV Eindhoven0–2Ajax
  • 2 Nov 2024Ajax3–2PSV Eindhoven
  • 3 Feb 2024Ajax1–1PSV Eindhoven

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

PSV EindhovenAjaxForecast
Scored per game 3.003.00
Conceded per game 1.331.33
Match goals 4.334.33
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 89%78%
Over 3.5 67%78%
Both teams scored 89%78%
Clean sheets 11%22%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games99
PSV EindhovenAjaxForecast
Scored per game 2.602.70
Conceded per game 1.201.20
Match goals 3.803.90
Over 1.5 90%90%
Over 2.5 70%70%
Over 3.5 50%70%
Both teams scored 80%70%
Clean sheets 10%30%
Failed to score 10%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

PSV EindhovenAjaxLeague
Corners
Corners won5.296.88
Corners conceded3.863.00
Match total9.159.8810.39
Over 8.557% 4/763% 5/8
Over 9.557% 4/750% 4/8
Over 10.543% 3/738% 3/8
Cards
Cards1.672.00
Opponent cards2.001.78
Match total3.673.782.77
Over 3.533% 3/956% 5/9
Over 4.533% 3/933% 3/9
PSV EindhovenAjaxLeague
Corners
Corners won5.446.88
Corners conceded3.893.00
Match total9.339.8810.39
Over 8.556% 5/963% 5/8
Over 9.556% 5/950% 4/8
Over 10.544% 4/938% 3/8
Cards
Cards1.901.90
Opponent cards2.402.00
Match total4.303.902.77
Over 3.540% 4/1060% 6/10
Over 4.540% 4/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

PSV Eindhoven9 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
4 4 0-15
5 1 16-30
5 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
3 61-75
6 4 76-90
Ajax9 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
2 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
7 3 31-45
3 2 46-60
7 1 61-75
6 4 76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 26 · conceded 12
4 4 0-15
5 1 16-30
5 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
2 1 61-75
6 3 76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 29 · conceded 12
2 1 0-15
3 1 16-30
7 3 31-45
4 2 46-60
7 1 61-75
6 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Eredivisie

View all fixtures →
PEC Zwolle Telstar Apr 2516:00 Excelsior Willem II Apr 2516:00 PSV Eindhoven Ajax Apr 2516:00 AZ Alkmaar Cambuur Apr 2516:00 Fortuna Sittard Groningen Apr 2516:00 Feyenoord Sparta Rotterdam Apr 2516:00 Heerenveen ADO Den Haag Apr 2516:00 GO Ahead Eagles Utrecht Apr 2516:00 Twente NEC Nijmegen Apr 2516:00