Eredivisie Gameweek 30 Sun, Apr 25 · 16:00 De Grolsch Veste, Enschede
Twente 5th · 17 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
NEC Nijmegen 12th · 10 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel83 kmRest days14 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Twente—%
Draw—%
NEC Nijmegen—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Enschede)

Forecast from 10 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Twente and NEC Nijmegen. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

TwenteNEC Nijmegen
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
45 Current StrengthIn forecast 32
41 AttackIn forecast 37
49 DefenceIn forecast 33
58 Form indexContext 18
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Twente

Attack—
Defense risk—

NEC Nijmegen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

TwenteNEC Nijmegen
1.89 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.67
1.11 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.78
1.63 xGVia Att/Def 2.16
0.74 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48
+0.26 Goals minus xGContext -0.49
89% Scored inContext 89%
22% Clean sheetsContext 0%
20.56 ShotsContext 15.11
7.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.22
34% On target shareContext 28%
13.44 Shots in the boxContext 9.78
65% Box shareContext 64%
9% ConversionContext 11%
1.57 OffsidesContext 2.57
11.11 Shots allowedContext 11.56
3.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.44
4.57 BlocksContext 3.11
2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56
69% Save rateContext 58%
58% PossessionIn forecast 60%
535 PassesContext 488
462 Accurate passesContext 401
86% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.97 Team ratingContext 6.59
11.33 FoulsContext 11.33
8.44 Fouls sufferedContext 12.11
0.78 Yellow cardsContext 1.33
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20
1.63 xGVia Att/Def 1.94
0.74 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39
+0.27 Goals minus xGContext -0.84
90% Scored inContext 70%
20% Clean sheetsContext 0%
20.56 ShotsContext 12.00
7.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80
34% On target shareContext 32%
13.44 Shots in the boxContext 7.60
65% Box shareContext 59%
9% ConversionContext 9%
1.57 OffsidesContext 2.43
11.11 Shots allowedContext 12.70
3.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30
4.57 BlocksContext 2.80
2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10
69% Save rateContext 59%
58% PossessionIn forecast 52%
535 PassesContext 442
462 Accurate passesContext 358
86% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.97 Team ratingContext 6.44
11.33 FoulsContext 11.70
8.44 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Twente
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km310 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 58 · 10 pts vs 9.1 for an average club · +0.4 vs expected
  • L18 OctH · Utrecht1–22.1 xPts
  • D10 OctA · Fortuna Sittard1–11.9 xPts
  • W20 SepH · PSV Eindhoven3–21.0 xPts
  • W12 SepH · ADO Den Haag2–02.4 xPts
  • W9 SepH · Telstar1–02.2 xPts
NEC Nijmegen
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel83 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 18 · 4 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected
  • D18 OctH · Fortuna Sittard2–21.9 xPts
  • D15 OctH · Levski Sofia1–11.8 xPts
  • D10 OctA · Ajax1–10.7 xPts
  • D20 SepH · GO Ahead Eagles1–11.7 xPts
  • L17 SepA · Juventus0–50.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Twente NEC Nijmegen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14Eredivisie 2026-2027, 11 Apr14Eredivisie 2026-2027, 11 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km83 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways310 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 20 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Twente Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Utrecht (H) 1–2, 18 Oct
16J. Drommel(G)
29A. Adelgaard 4Ruud Nijstad 3R. Pröpper 28B. van Rooij
8D. Weidmann 6R. Zerrouki
27S. Ørjasæter 14K. Hlynsson 11D. Rots
9W. Weghorst
NEC Nijmegen Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Fortuna Sittard (H) 2–2, 18 Oct
1G. Crettaz(G)
24D. Fonville 22A. Kaplan 21T. Storm
35Jamiro Monteiro 18D. Geiger 6D. Nejašmić 34Kevin Kers
99Clement Bischoff 20N. Lebreton
30B. Linssen

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Twente Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
NEC Nijmegen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Twente · Home 2.40points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
4-0-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.00
NEC Nijmegen · Away 1.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
2-1-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentTwenteNEC Nijmegen
Fortuna Sittard D 1–1 A D 2–2 H
Telstar W 1–0 H L 1–2 H
Cambuur W 4–1 A L 0–3 A
PEC Zwolle W 3–1 H W 3–1 A
Points10 of 12 · 2.50 per game4 of 12 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Twente wins3 draws1 NEC Nijmegen wins
Goals per game1.83 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored67% Clean sheets17% · 17%
  • 25 Apr 2026Twente1–1NEC Nijmegen
  • 18 Oct 2025NEC Nijmegen3–3Twente
  • 23 Feb 2025Twente2–0NEC Nijmegen
  • 10 Aug 2024NEC Nijmegen1–2Twente
  • 20 Jan 2024NEC Nijmegen1–0Twente
  • 11 Nov 2023Twente3–3NEC Nijmegen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

TwenteNEC NijmegenForecast
Scored per game 1.891.67
Conceded per game 1.111.78
Match goals 3.003.44
Over 1.5 78%100%
Over 2.5 56%78%
Over 3.5 44%56%
Both teams scored 67%89%
Clean sheets 22%0%
Failed to score 11%11%
Games99
TwenteNEC NijmegenForecast
Scored per game 1.901.10
Conceded per game 1.202.20
Match goals 3.103.30
Over 1.5 80%100%
Over 2.5 60%70%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 70%70%
Clean sheets 20%0%
Failed to score 10%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

TwenteNEC NijmegenLeague
Corners
Corners won7.224.88
Corners conceded3.893.75
Match total11.118.6310.39
Over 8.5100% 9/950% 4/8
Over 9.578% 7/938% 3/8
Over 10.567% 6/938% 3/8
Cards
Cards0.781.33
Opponent cards1.561.78
Match total2.343.112.77
Over 3.522% 2/956% 5/9
Over 4.50% 0/90% 0/9
TwenteNEC NijmegenLeague
Corners
Corners won7.224.00
Corners conceded3.893.88
Match total11.117.8810.39
Over 8.5100% 9/938% 3/8
Over 9.578% 7/925% 2/8
Over 10.567% 6/925% 2/8
Cards
Cards1.001.50
Opponent cards1.601.40
Match total2.602.902.77
Over 3.530% 3/1040% 4/10
Over 4.510% 1/100% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Twente9 games · scored 17 · conceded 10
2 1 0-15
3 5 16-30
3 31-45
2 2 46-60
4 1 61-75
3 1 76-90
NEC Nijmegen9 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
3 3 0-15
3 3 16-30
1 2 31-45
2 3 46-60
2 3 61-75
4 2 76-90
Twente10 games · scored 19 · conceded 12
2 1 0-15
3 6 16-30
3 31-45
2 3 46-60
4 1 61-75
5 1 76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 22
3 3 0-15
3 3 16-30
6 31-45
1 3 46-60
1 5 61-75
3 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Eredivisie

View all fixtures →
PEC Zwolle Telstar Apr 2516:00 Excelsior Willem II Apr 2516:00 PSV Eindhoven Ajax Apr 2516:00 AZ Alkmaar Cambuur Apr 2516:00 Fortuna Sittard Groningen Apr 2516:00 Feyenoord Sparta Rotterdam Apr 2516:00 Heerenveen ADO Den Haag Apr 2516:00 GO Ahead Eagles Utrecht Apr 2516:00 Twente NEC Nijmegen Apr 2516:00