Famalicao
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Famalicao were clear favourites.
Famalicao were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 10). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for AVS. Famalicao had 8.1 days of rest, AVS 7 and had to travel.
Rest days8.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Famalicao62%
Draw23%
AVS15%
Famalicao68%
Draw20%
AVS13%
Famalicao62%
Draw23%
AVS15%
Famalicao55%
Draw26%
AVS19%
Famalicao63%
Draw22%
AVS15%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila Nova de Famalicão)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalLuis Carlos Mateus Filipe
- Cards per match 5.5
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 4
Team strength
Famalicao
AVS
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
10
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
24
AttackIn forecast
17
36
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAVS
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FamalicaoAVS
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
0.95
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.55
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
0.88
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.78
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
70%
Scored inContext
45%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.90
ShotsContext
10.20
4.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.85
32%
On target shareContext
28%
8.05
Shots in the boxContext
5.89
65%
Box shareContext
57%
10%
ConversionContext
7%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.70
Shots allowedContext
14.20
4.16
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.45
2.63
BlocksContext
3.21
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
77%
Save rateContext
56%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
382
PassesContext
315
311
Accurate passesContext
237
81%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.54
17.05
FoulsContext
13.35
16.25
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.15
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.70
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.87
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.31
60%
Scored inContext
40%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.40
ShotsContext
11.00
4.63
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
36%
On target shareContext
30%
6.11
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
54%
Box shareContext
58%
13%
ConversionContext
6%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.63
11.50
Shots allowedContext
14.80
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.10
2.70
BlocksContext
3.00
3.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
68%
Save rateContext
63%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
402
PassesContext
299
331
Accurate passesContext
220
82%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.51
16.00
FoulsContext
11.00
16.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Famalicao
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km32 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AVS
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Famalicao |
AVS |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 1 Feb | 7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 2 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 32 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Famalicao
Confirmed XI
25L. Carević(G)
28Pedro Bondo
16J. de Haas
55I. Ba
2Gustavo Garcia
6T. van de Looi
7Sorriso
20Gustavo Sá
80Pedro Santos
23Gil Dias
9Umar Abubakar
AVS
Confirmed XI
1Adriel
12Leonardo Rivas
3Paulo Vitor
42C. Devenish
97Mateus Pivô
70Roni
20Diego Duarte
8Pedro Lima
23Gustavo Mendonça
11B. Akinsola
7Tómané
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Famalicao
Absences are shown before kick-off
AVS
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Famalicao+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- AVS+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Famalicao · Home
1.40points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-4
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 0.80
AVS · Away
0.22points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-7
- Scored
- 0.78
- Conceded
- 3.11
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Famalicao | AVS |
|---|---|---|
| GIL Vicente | L 0–5 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Tondela | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Santa Clara | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Alverca | L 0–1 A | L 1–3 H |
| Estrela | L 2–3 H | L 0–3 A |
| Benfica | L 0–1 A | L 0–3 H |
| Estoril | W 4–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| SC Braga | L 1–2 H | L 0–4 HD 2–2 A |
| Moreirense | D 2–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Nacional | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Guimaraes | W 2–0 H | L 0–4 A |
| Arouca | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Rio Ave | D 0–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Casa Pia | D 1–1 A | D 3–3 AL 0–2 H |
| Sporting CP | L 1–2 H | L 0–6 A |
| Points | 26 of 57 · 1.37 per game | 5 of 57 · 0.26 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
3 Famalicao wins0 draws0 AVS wins
Goals per game2.67 – 1.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 30 Aug 2025AVS0–1Famalicao
- 30 Mar 2025Famalicao4–1AVS
- 3 Nov 2024AVS2–3Famalicao
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Famalicao | AVS | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.95 | 2.55 | |
| Match goals | 2.15 | 3.25 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 55% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 65% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 45% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 55% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Famalicao | AVS | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Famalicao | AVS | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.75 | 3.82 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 5.12 | |
| Match total | 9.65 | 8.94 | 9.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 12/20 | 59% 10/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 9/20 | 41% 7/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 45% 9/20 | 41% 7/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.15 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.75 | 5.10 | 5.24 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 13/20 | 60% 12/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 9/20 | 60% 12/20 | |
| Famalicao | AVS | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.30 | 3.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 8.33 | 9.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 5.30 | 5.24 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe Portugal · 4 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.50league 4.90
Red cards0.00league 0.28
Cards 5+75%league 59%
Fouls30.0league 27.0
Penalties0.25league 0.45
Home wins25%league 41%
FamalicaoNo previous matches with this referee.
AVS1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D2 Nov 25H · Tondela2–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Famalicao20 games · scored 24 · conceded 19
3
1
0-15
5
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
4
4
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
6
76-90
AVS20 games · scored 14 · conceded 51
1
8
0-15
1
7
16-30
4
9
31-45
1
11
46-60
2
9
61-75
5
7
76-90
Famalicao10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
AVS10 games · scored 7 · conceded 27
5
0-15
3
16-30
2
5
31-45
1
6
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
