Famalicao vs Estoril – 17 Jan 2027

Primeira Liga Gameweek 18 Sun, Jan 17 · 16:00 Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Vila Nova de Famalicão

Famalicao 13th · 7 pts · 8 played DDDWL

VS— Compare

Estoril 18th · 2 pts · 8 played LDLLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel310 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Real contextStrength only

Famalicao—%

Draw—%

Estoril—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Vila Nova de Famalicão)

Forecast from 2 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Trend Famalicao 63% Both teams scored Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored

Defence

Streaks

Streak Estoril 3 Losses in a row Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row

Team strength

Famalicao

Estoril

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

38 Current StrengthIn forecast 22

24 AttackIn forecast 21

36 DefenceIn forecast 29

30 Form indexContext 10

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Famalicao

Attack—

Defense risk—

Estoril

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Famalicao

Estoril

1.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

1.38 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

0.76 xGVia Att/Def 0.97

1.44 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.41

+0.49 Goals minus xGContext -0.47

75% Scored inContext 50%

25% Clean sheetsContext 13%

10.00 ShotsContext 12.88

3.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

33% On target shareContext 39%

4.75 Shots in the boxContext 7.63

47% Box shareContext 60%

13% ConversionContext 4%

1.40 OffsidesContext 2.00

11.88 Shots allowedContext 13.75

3.38 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.25

2.75 BlocksContext 3.86

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.83

59% Save rateContext 61%

55% PossessionIn forecast 47%

472 PassesContext 402

405 Accurate passesContext 322

86% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.70

11.63 FoulsContext 10.88

15.25 Fouls sufferedContext 13.38

2.25 Yellow cardsContext 2.13

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.60

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

0.90 xGVia Att/Def 1.02

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.75

+0.20 Goals minus xGContext -0.42

70% Scored inContext 60%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.50 ShotsContext 12.70

3.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

31% On target shareContext 38%

5.10 Shots in the boxContext 7.70

48% Box shareContext 61%

11% ConversionContext 5%

1.57 OffsidesContext 1.67

10.60 Shots allowedContext 13.50

2.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

2.67 BlocksContext 3.78

1.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

62% Save rateContext 58%

55% PossessionIn forecast 48%

465 PassesContext 411

399 Accurate passesContext 333

86% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.69

10.90 FoulsContext 11.00

14.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.80

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Famalicao DDDWL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 30 · 6 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected

L12 OctH · Alverca1–41.8 xPts
W19 SepA · Nacional4–01.7 xPts
D13 SepH · Sporting CP1–10.8 xPts
D5 SepA · Estrela2–21.4 xPts
D30 AugH · GIL Vicente0–01.6 xPts

Estoril LDLLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel310 km31 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 10 · 1 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -4.0 vs expected

L10 OctA · Academico Viseu1–21.0 xPts
L20 SepH · Casa Pia1–21.8 xPts
L14 SepA · SC Braga0–10.7 xPts
D7 SepH · Arouca0–01.4 xPts
L31 AugA · Benfica1–20.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Famalicao	Estoril
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 10 Jan	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 10 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	310 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	31 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Famalicao Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Alverca (H) 1–4, 12 Oct

25L. Carević(G)

28Pedro Bondo 15Víctor Rofino 36M. Mattara 17Rodrigo Pinheiro

21Tamás Szücs 8Marcos Peña

7Sorriso 14M. De Amorim 23Gil Dias

70G. Koutsias

Estoril Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Academico Viseu (A) 1–2, 10 Oct

1Joel Robles(G)

5A. Tsoungui 6Xavi Sintes 35S. Amissah

21R. Jurišić 10J. Holsgrove 44M. Robin 2Ricard Sánchez

12João Carvalho 99R. Guitane

7André Lacximicant

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Famalicao Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Estoril Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Famalicao · Home 0.50points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 0-2-2
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 1.75

Estoril · Away 0.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-4
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Famalicao	Estoril
Nacional	W 4–0 A	L 0–2 A
Points	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

4 Famalicao wins2 draws3 Estoril wins

Goals per game1.33 – 0.78 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets44% · 22%

7 Aug 2026Estoril1–1Famalicao
26 Apr 2026Estoril0–1Famalicao
14 Dec 2025Famalicao4–0Estoril
12 Apr 2025Famalicao3–0Estoril
1 Dec 2024Estoril2–1Famalicao
28 Apr 2024Estoril1–0Famalicao

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Famalicao	Estoril
Scored per game	1.25	0.50
Conceded per game	1.38	1.50
Match goals	2.63	2.00
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	50%	38%
Over 3.5	38%	0%
Both teams scored	63%	50%
Clean sheets	25%	13%
Failed to score	25%	50%
Games	8	8

	Famalicao	Estoril
Scored per game	1.10	0.60
Conceded per game	1.10	1.60
Match goals	2.20	2.20
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	40%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	50%	60%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Famalicao	Estoril	League
Corners
Corners won	5.75	5.57
Corners conceded	3.88	4.14
Match total	9.63	9.71	8.91
Over 8.5	75% 6/8	71% 5/7
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	57% 4/7
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	43% 3/7
Cards
Cards	2.38	2.38
Opponent cards	2.38	1.38
Match total	4.76	3.76	4.55
Over 3.5	75% 6/8	63% 5/8
Over 4.5	63% 5/8	38% 3/8

	Famalicao	Estoril	League
Corners
Corners won	6.20	5.00
Corners conceded	3.90	4.67
Match total	10.10	9.67	8.91
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.40
Opponent cards	2.40	1.60
Match total	4.50	4.00	4.55
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.