Arouca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel57 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Arouca—%
Draw—%
Guimaraes—%
Weather (Arouca)
Forecast from 2 Jan
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Arouca and Guimaraes. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Guimaraes
+0.32
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.39xG against1.07
-
Insight
Arouca
4
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Arouca
0.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Defence
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
AroucaGuimaraes
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
27
28
AttackIn forecast
28
37
DefenceIn forecast
39
45
Form indexContext
13
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGuimaraes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AroucaGuimaraes
1.38
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.63
0.88
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.25
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.48
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.85
75%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
10.50
ShotsContext
17.25
3.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.57
36%
On target shareContext
23%
6.25
Shots in the boxContext
10.63
60%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
4%
1.83
OffsidesContext
1.43
14.25
Shots allowedContext
9.13
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.43
3.75
BlocksContext
3.00
3.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.17
81%
Save rateContext
62%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
440
PassesContext
449
372
Accurate passesContext
370
85%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.69
10.38
FoulsContext
15.63
10.38
Fouls sufferedContext
9.88
2.88
Yellow cardsContext
2.63
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
+0.48
Goals minus xGContext
-0.89
80%
Scored inContext
40%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.30
ShotsContext
16.60
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.22
35%
On target shareContext
23%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
10.30
60%
Box shareContext
62%
15%
ConversionContext
3%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.67
13.80
Shots allowedContext
8.90
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.56
4.00
BlocksContext
2.63
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
79%
Save rateContext
62%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
439
PassesContext
448
370
Accurate passesContext
370
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.70
11.00
FoulsContext
14.70
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Arouca
WDLDW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 45 · 8 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
Guimaraes
LDLDL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel57 km38 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 13 · 2 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -4.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Arouca |
Guimaraes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 10 Jan | 7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 10 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 57 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 38 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Arouca
Last XI · not confirmed
12I. de Arruabarrena(G)
18O. Lebedenko
3José Fontán
15Javi Sánchez
28Tiago Esgaio
8T. Fukui
6E. van Ee
7N. Djouahra
10Pablo Gozálbez
19A. Trezza
17Barbero
Guimaraes
Last XI · not confirmed
48O. Zych(G)
13J. Teixeira Mendes
28Thiago Balieiro
21T. Borevković
23T. Strata
8Gonçalo Nogueira
44L. Doucet
7O. Camara
20Samu
17M. Nogueira
9A. Jakupovic
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Arouca
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Guimaraes
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Arouca · Home
2.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.75
Guimaraes · Away
0.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-4
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Arouca | Guimaraes |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | D 2–2 A | L 2–3 A |
| Moreirense | W 4–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 Arouca wins3 draws3 Guimaraes wins
Goals per game1.44 – 1.44
Over 2.556%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets22% · 11%
- 8 Aug 2026Guimaraes0–1Arouca
- 7 Feb 2026Arouca3–2Guimaraes
- 30 Aug 2025Guimaraes1–1Arouca
- 18 Jan 2025Guimaraes2–2Arouca
- 12 Aug 2024Arouca0–1Guimaraes
- 18 May 2024Arouca1–3Guimaraes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Arouca | Guimaraes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.38 | 0.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.88 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 1.88 | |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 25% | |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 38% | |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 50% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Arouca | Guimaraes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 1.80 | |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 20% | |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% | |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Arouca | Guimaraes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.13 | 5.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.38 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.51 | 9.75 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 5.25 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 6/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Arouca | Guimaraes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 9.60 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 5.20 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Arouca8 games · scored 11 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Guimaraes7 games · scored 5 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Arouca10 games · scored 17 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
1
76-90
Guimaraes9 games · scored 5 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
