Famalicao vs Guimaraes – 26 Oct 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 9 Sun, Oct 26 · 15:30 Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Vila Nova de Famalicão

Famalicao 6th · 13 pts · 8 played WLDDD

2–0Full time

Guimaraes 9th · 11 pts · 8 played DWDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Guimaraes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 37). Famalicao had 21 days of rest, Guimaraes 21.8 and had to travel 19 km.

Away travel19 kmRest days21 · 21.8Matches / 14d0 · 0

Famalicao39%

Draw28%

Guimaraes33%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.22

Famalicao40%

Draw27%

Guimaraes33%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.27

Famalicao39%

Draw28%

Guimaraes33%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.22

Famalicao32%

Draw28%

Guimaraes40%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.37

Famalicao40%

Draw27%

Guimaraes33%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.27

Over 2.5 47% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vila Nova de Famalicão)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalSergio Guelho

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.14
Matches 14

Team strength

Famalicao

Guimaraes

37 L90 StrengthIn forecast 43

38 Current StrengthIn forecast 27

24 AttackIn forecast 28

36 DefenceIn forecast 39

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Famalicao

Attack—

Defense risk—

Guimaraes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Famalicao

Guimaraes

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.13

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.39 xGVia Att/Def 1.15

0.91 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

-0.39 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

75% Scored inContext 63%

63% Clean sheetsContext 13%

12.88 ShotsContext 12.88

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.88

27% On target shareContext 30%

9.50 Shots in the boxContext 6.38

75% Box shareContext 51%

8% ConversionContext 9%

2.17 OffsidesContext 2.33

9.88 Shots allowedContext 11.75

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.38

2.43 BlocksContext 3.00

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

86% Save rateContext 69%

50% PossessionIn forecast 50%

365 PassesContext 373

294 Accurate passesContext 304

81% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.99 Team ratingContext 6.74

18.00 FoulsContext 14.25

16.63 Fouls sufferedContext 14.88

2.63 Yellow cardsContext 2.38

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.57 xGVia Att/Def 1.13

1.04 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29

-0.47 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

80% Scored inContext 60%

50% Clean sheetsContext 10%

13.20 ShotsContext 12.50

3.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.89

27% On target shareContext 28%

9.50 Shots in the boxContext 6.60

72% Box shareContext 53%

8% ConversionContext 8%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.13

10.00 Shots allowedContext 11.70

3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

2.33 BlocksContext 2.63

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

82% Save rateContext 66%

51% PossessionIn forecast 52%

363 PassesContext 389

295 Accurate passesContext 320

81% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.98 Team ratingContext 6.74

17.10 FoulsContext 14.60

16.70 Fouls sufferedContext 14.00

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Famalicao

Rest21 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Guimaraes

Rest21.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel19 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Famalicao	Guimaraes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	21Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 5 Oct	21.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 4 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	19 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	0 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	6	6.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Famalicao Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25L. Carević(G)

5Rafa Soares 16J. de Haas 3L. Realpe 17Rodrigo Pinheiro

14M. De Amorim 6T. van de Looi

77A. Joujou 20Gustavo Sá 7Sorriso

12S. Elisor

Guimaraes Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25Juan Castillo(G)

17O. Lebedenko 26R. Abascal 4Óscar Rivas 2Miguel Maga

23Diogo Sousa 16Beni

22Fabio Blanco 20Samu 48N. Saviolo

90A. Ndoye

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Famalicao Absences are shown before kick-off

Guimaraes Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Famalicao+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Guimaraes+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Famalicao · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-2-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.50

Guimaraes · Away 0.75points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-3
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Famalicao	Guimaraes
Arouca	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 H
Santa Clara	W 3–0 H	W 2–1 H
Points	4 of 6 · 2.00 per game	4 of 6 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Famalicao wins1 draws4 Guimaraes wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.67 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets17% · 33%

8 Feb 2025Famalicao0–0Guimaraes
1 Sep 2024Guimaraes2–1Famalicao
9 Mar 2024Guimaraes1–0Famalicao
8 Oct 2023Famalicao1–3Guimaraes
14 Apr 2023Famalicao2–1Guimaraes
31 Oct 2022Guimaraes3–2Famalicao

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Famalicao	Guimaraes	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.13
Conceded per game	0.50	1.50
Match goals	1.50	2.63	2.57
Over 1.5	50%	100%
Over 2.5	25%	38%	47%
Over 3.5	0%	13%
Both teams scored	38%	50%	53%
Clean sheets	63%	13%
Failed to score	25%	38%
Games	8	8

	Famalicao	Guimaraes	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.13
Conceded per game	0.50	1.50
Match goals	1.50	2.63	2.57
Over 1.5	50%	100%
Over 2.5	25%	38%	47%
Over 3.5	0%	13%
Both teams scored	38%	50%	53%
Clean sheets	63%	13%
Failed to score	25%	38%
Games	8	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Famalicao	Guimaraes	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	4.25
Corners conceded	4.63	2.88
Match total	10.63	7.13	9.29
Over 8.5	75% 6/8	38% 3/8
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	38% 3/8
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	13% 1/8
Cards
Cards	2.75	2.38
Opponent cards	2.13	3.25
Match total	4.88	5.63	5.43
Over 3.5	75% 6/8	75% 6/8
Over 4.5	63% 5/8	63% 5/8

	Famalicao	Guimaraes	League
Corners
Corners won	6.70	5.10
Corners conceded	4.30	3.30
Match total	11.00	8.40	9.29
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.70	2.70
Opponent cards	3.00	3.30
Match total	5.70	6.00	5.43
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sergio Guelho Portugal · 14 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.50league 5.24

Red cards0.00league 0.28

Cards 5+36%league 66%

Fouls26.6league 27.8

Penalties0.14league 0.46

Home wins50%league 37%

Famalicao

No previous matches with this referee.

Guimaraes1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W3 May 25A · Nacional2–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.