Famalicao
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Famalicao66.2%fair odds 1.51
Draw20.8%fair odds 4.82
Maritimo13.0%fair odds 7.69
Expected goals2.07 – 0.80total 2.87
Likeliest score2–012.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Maritimo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Famalicao ↓ · Maritimo → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Famalicao goals, columns Maritimo goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–012.1%8.26
- 1–011.2%8.93
- 1–19.9%10.10
- 2–19.7%10.28
- 3–08.3%11.98
- 3–16.7%14.90
- 0–06.1%16.26
- 4–04.3%23.16
- 0–14.0%24.72
- 2–23.9%25.57
Winning margin
21.8%
Famalicao by 3+
fair 4.58
20.4%
Famalicao by 2
fair 4.91
24.0%
Famalicao by 1
fair 4.16
20.8%
Draw
fair 4.82
9.0%
Maritimo by 1
fair 11.07
3.1%
Maritimo by 2
fair 32.52
0.9%
Maritimo by 3+
fair 112.34
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Famalicao goals
13%0
26%1
27%2
19%3
16%4+
Maritimo goals
45%0
36%1
14%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Famalicao win | 66.2% | 66.0% | +0.2 pp |
| Draw | 20.8% | 20.9% | -0.1 pp |
| Maritimo win | 13.0% | 13.1% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.8% | 54.4% | +0.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 48.8% | 48.6% | +0.2 pp |
| Expected goals Famalicao | 2.07 | 2.06 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals Maritimo | 0.80 | 0.80 | +0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Famalicao win66.2%1.51
- Draw20.8%4.82
- Maritimo win13.0%7.69
- Double chance Famalicao or draw87.0%1.15
- Double chance Famalicao or Maritimo79.2%1.26
- Double chance Maritimo or draw33.8%2.96
- Draw no bet Famalicao83.6%1.20
- Draw no bet Maritimo16.4%6.10
Goals
- Over 0.593.9%1.07
- Over 1.578.6%1.27
- Over 2.554.8%1.83
- Over 3.532.4%3.08
- Over 4.516.4%6.10
- Under 1.521.4%4.67
- Under 2.545.2%2.21
- Under 3.567.6%1.48
Both teams to score
- Yes48.8%2.05
- No51.2%1.95
- Yes and over 2.538.9%2.57
- Famalicao win and yes27.6%3.62
- Draw and yes14.6%6.84
- Maritimo win and yes6.5%15.34
Team goals
- Famalicao over 0.587.4%1.14
- Famalicao over 1.561.2%1.63
- Famalicao over 2.534.2%2.92
- Maritimo over 0.555.2%1.81
- Maritimo over 1.519.3%5.19
- Maritimo over 2.54.8%20.83
- Famalicao clean sheet44.8%2.23
- Maritimo clean sheet12.6%7.92
- Famalicao win to nil38.6%2.59
- Maritimo win to nil6.5%15.44
Handicap
- Famalicao −1.542.2%2.37
- Famalicao −2.521.8%4.58
- Maritimo +1.557.8%1.73
- Maritimo +2.578.2%1.28
- Maritimo −1.54.0%25.22
- Famalicao +1.596.0%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored15
Favourite won40.0%
Avg chance given to result38.7%
1X2 Brier0.661
Over 2.5 called right40.0%
BTTS called right46.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 38.5% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 4 | 44.8% | 0.0% |
| 50–60% | 4 | 51.0% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 64.2% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 73.7% | 66.7% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 81.1% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 15 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 15 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.