Famalicao vs Maritimo – 16 Aug 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 2 Sun, Aug 16 · 20:30 Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Vila Nova de Famalicão

Famalicao 11th · 1 pts · 1 played D

1–2Full time

Maritimo 7th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Famalicao were clear favourites.

Famalicao were the stronger side on L90 Strength (44 vs 15). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Famalicao. Famalicao had 9 days of rest, Maritimo 8.2 and had to travel 1,222 km.

Away travel1,222 kmRest days9 · 8.2Matches / 14d1 · 1

Famalicao67%

Draw20%

Maritimo14%

Expected goals 2.07 – 0.80

Famalicao66%

Draw20%

Maritimo14%

Expected goals 2.11 – 0.85

Famalicao67%

Draw20%

Maritimo13%

Expected goals 2.07 – 0.80

Famalicao60%

Draw23%

Maritimo18%

Expected goals 1.85 – 0.90

Famalicao67%

Draw20%

Maritimo14%

Expected goals 2.06 – 0.80

Over 2.5 55% Both score 48% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vila Nova de Famalicão)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalMiguel Nogueira

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 65

Team strength

Famalicao

Maritimo

44 L90 StrengthIn forecast 15

38 Current StrengthIn forecast 16

24 AttackIn forecast 15

36 DefenceIn forecast 20

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Famalicao

Attack—

Defense risk—

Maritimo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Famalicao

Maritimo

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.35 xGVia Att/Def —

0.64 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

-0.05 Goals minus xGContext —

90% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.10 ShotsContext 15.30

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

38% On target shareContext 34%

7.78 Shots in the boxContext 10.78

65% Box shareContext 65%

12% ConversionContext 11%

1.33 OffsidesContext 1.50

8.10 Shots allowedContext 12.40

2.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

2.22 BlocksContext 3.22

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

80% Save rateContext 65%

52% PossessionIn forecast 46%

415 PassesContext 360

349 Accurate passesContext 292

84% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.89

11.90 FoulsContext 15.90

14.90 Fouls sufferedContext 13.90

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 3.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Famalicao D

Rest9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km619 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 45 · 1 pts vs 1.5 for an average club · -0.5 vs expected

D7 AugA · Estoril1–11.5 xPts

Maritimo W

Rest8.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,222 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

Form 58 · 3 pts vs 2.1 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected

W8 AugH · Casa Pia1–01.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Famalicao	Maritimo
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 7 Aug	8.2Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 8 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,222 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	619 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	5.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Famalicao Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25L. Carević(G)

28Pedro Bondo 4F. van Breemen 3L. Realpe 17Rodrigo Pinheiro

14M. De Amorim 6T. van de Looi

11Óscar Aranda 19Paulo Moreira 7Sorriso

70G. Koutsias

Maritimo Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13Alfonso Pastor(G)

23Paulo Henrique 44Romain Correia 4Rafael Fernandes 2Igor Julião

18V. Danilović 6Rodrigo Andrade

10Martín Tejón 14R. Guzzo 11M. Diouri

17Adrián Butzke

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Famalicao Absences are shown before kick-off

Maritimo Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Famalicao+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Maritimo+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Famalicao · Home No home games yet this season.

Maritimo · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Famalicao wins1 draws0 Maritimo wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 50%

22 Apr 2023Famalicao3–2Maritimo
6 Nov 2022Maritimo0–0Famalicao

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Famalicao	Maritimo	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	0.00
Match goals	2.00	1.00	2.87
Over 1.5	100%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	55%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	48%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Famalicao	Maritimo	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.00
Conceded per game	0.90	0.00
Match goals	2.20	1.00	2.87
Over 1.5	60%	0%
Over 2.5	40%	0%	55%
Over 3.5	30%	0%
Both teams scored	60%	0%	48%
Clean sheets	40%	100%
Failed to score	10%	0%
Games	10	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Famalicao	Maritimo	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	2.00
Corners conceded	7.00	6.00
Match total	13.00	8.00	9.21
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.00
Opponent cards	1.00	2.00
Match total	3.00	4.00	4.93
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Famalicao	Maritimo	League
Corners
Corners won	5.56	5.10
Corners conceded	5.00	5.90
Match total	10.56	11.00	9.21
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	78% 7/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.50	3.70
Opponent cards	2.60	2.70
Match total	5.10	6.40	4.93
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Miguel Nogueira Portugal · 65 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.14league 4.80

Red cards0.28league 0.27

Cards 5+48%league 53%

Fouls25.4league 24.9

Penalties0.23league 0.33

Home wins40%league 40%

Famalicao8 with this referee

Record2-2-4 Cards · opp.2.8 · 3.3 Pens for · against2 · 1

L18 Apr 25A · FC Porto1–23
L15 Mar 25A · Sporting CP1–31
L21 Dec 24H · Farense1–23
D9 Nov 24H · Arouca0–05
D17 Dec 23H · Estoril1–14

Maritimo1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L11 Sep 22H · GIL Vicente1–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.