FC Augsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
FC Augsburg
13th · 22 pts · 21 played
DDWWL
1–0Full time
1. FC Heidenheim
18th · 13 pts · 21 played
LDLLL
Our take
FC Augsburg were slight favourites.
FC Augsburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 24). FC Augsburg had 8 days of rest, 1. FC Heidenheim 8 and had to travel 65 km.
Away travel65 kmRest days8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 2
FC Augsburg57%
Draw23%
1. FC Heidenheim20%
FC Augsburg54%
Draw25%
1. FC Heidenheim21%
FC Augsburg56%
Draw23%
1. FC Heidenheim21%
FC Augsburg49%
Draw24%
1. FC Heidenheim27%
FC Augsburg56%
Draw23%
1. FC Heidenheim21%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Augsburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFelix Zwayer
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 120
Team strength
FC Augsburg1. FC Heidenheim
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
72
AttackIn forecast
48
23
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1. FC Heidenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC Augsburg1. FC Heidenheim
1.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.24
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.79
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.31
67%
Scored inContext
62%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.19
ShotsContext
11.43
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.55
34%
On target shareContext
30%
7.25
Shots in the boxContext
7.85
60%
Box shareContext
66%
9%
ConversionContext
8%
2.30
OffsidesContext
2.18
13.05
Shots allowedContext
15.29
4.55
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.57
4.32
BlocksContext
3.95
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
58%
Save rateContext
59%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
397
PassesContext
351
317
Accurate passesContext
272
80%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.70
11.19
FoulsContext
10.00
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.24
2.62
Yellow cardsContext
1.62
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.05
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.75
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.36
50%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.90
ShotsContext
12.90
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
34%
On target shareContext
25%
7.78
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
61%
Box shareContext
69%
7%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.33
13.40
Shots allowedContext
14.60
4.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
4.80
BlocksContext
4.00
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
58%
Save rateContext
57%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
402
PassesContext
360
322
Accurate passesContext
276
80%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.72
9.60
FoulsContext
9.90
13.40
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Augsburg
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km523 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
1. FC Heidenheim
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel65 km738 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Augsburg |
1. FC Heidenheim |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 7 Feb | 8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 7 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 65 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 523 km | 738 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Augsburg
Confirmed XI
1F. Dahmen(G)
16C. Zesiger
31K. Schlotterbeck
40N. Banks
19Robin Fellhauer
4H. Massengo
17K. Jakić
30A. Kade
20A. Claude-Maurice
36M. Kömür
38M. Gregoritsch
1. FC Heidenheim
Confirmed XI
41D. Ramaj(G)
5B. Gimber
6P. Mainka
2M. Busch
26Hennes Behrens
3J. Schöppner
16J. Niehues
22A. Ibrahimović
10C. Conteh
8E. Dinkçi
9S. Schimmer
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Augsburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1. FC Heidenheim
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Augsburg+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- 1. FC Heidenheim-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Augsburg · Home
1.36points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-4
- Scored
- 1.27
- Conceded
- 1.73
1. FC Heidenheim · Away
0.40points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-8
- Scored
- 0.90
- Conceded
- 2.30
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | FC Augsburg | 1. FC Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 0–2 AL 1–4 H | L 1–2 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Bayern München | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H | L 0–4 H |
| SC Freiburg | D 2–2 HW 3–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Union Berlin | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–4 A | L 0–3 H |
| Werder Bremen | D 0–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 2–0 H | L 0–6 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 0–3 A | L 1–3 A |
| Hamburger SV | W 1–0 H | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 2–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–1 H | L 2–3 AL 0–2 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–6 H | L 0–3 HL 0–2 A |
| 1.FC Köln | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H |
| Points | 22 of 60 · 1.10 per game | 10 of 60 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
3 FC Augsburg wins0 draws2 1. FC Heidenheim wins
Goals per game1.80 – 1.80
Over 2.580%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets20% · 20%
- 27 Sep 20251. FC Heidenheim2–1FC Augsburg
- 25 Jan 2025FC Augsburg2–11. FC Heidenheim
- 1 Sep 20241. FC Heidenheim4–0FC Augsburg
- 9 Mar 2024FC Augsburg1–01. FC Heidenheim
- 22 Oct 20231. FC Heidenheim2–5FC Augsburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Augsburg | 1. FC Heidenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.14 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.86 | 2.24 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.14 | 3.11 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 95% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 71% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 62% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 38% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| FC Augsburg | 1. FC Heidenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 3.20 | 3.11 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Augsburg | 1. FC Heidenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.24 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.76 | 5.26 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.26 | 9.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 11/21 | 74% 14/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 9/21 | 53% 10/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 7/21 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.81 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.48 | 3.77 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 15/21 | 52% 11/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 12/21 | 38% 8/21 | |
| FC Augsburg | 1. FC Heidenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 5.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 12.13 | 9.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.50 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Felix Zwayer Germany · 120 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.72league 3.75
Red cards0.15league 0.18
Cards 5+54%league 38%
Fouls21.8league 20.7
Penalties0.31league 0.36
Home wins44%league 46%
FC Augsburg6 with this referee
Record4-0-2
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W23 Aug 25A · SC Freiburg3–15
- L14 Dec 24H · Bayer Leverkusen0–23
- W15 Sep 24H · FC St. Pauli3–14
- W2 Mar 24A · SV Darmstadt 986–00
- W4 Mar 23H · Werder Bremen2–12
1. FC Heidenheim4 with this referee
Record0-3-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- L13 Sep 25H · Borussia Dortmund0–23
- D31 Mar 24A · VfB Stuttgart3–31
- D13 Jan 24A · 1.FC Köln1–11
- D26 Nov 23H · VfL Bochum0–04
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Augsburg21 games · scored 24 · conceded 39
3
4
0-15
3
9
16-30
5
8
31-45
6
7
46-60
2
6
61-75
5
5
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim21 games · scored 19 · conceded 47
1
2
0-15
2
7
16-30
3
12
31-45
5
9
46-60
3
9
61-75
5
8
76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 9 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim10 games · scored 11 · conceded 21
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
6
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
5
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
