FC Augsburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
FC Augsburg
11th · 32 pts · 28 played
WLLLD
2–2Full time
1899 Hoffenheim
5th · 50 pts · 28 played
LWDLL
FC Augsburg38.5%fair odds 2.60
Draw23.6%fair odds 4.23
1899 Hoffenheim37.9%fair odds 2.64
Expected goals1.71 – 1.70total 3.41
Likeliest score1–110.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
1899 Hoffenheim
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| FC Augsburg ↓ · 1899 Hoffenheim → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are FC Augsburg goals, columns 1899 Hoffenheim goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.1%9.89
- 2–18.2%12.15
- 1–28.1%12.27
- 2–27.0%14.33
- 1–05.2%19.41
- 0–15.1%19.61
- 2–04.8%20.62
- 0–24.8%21.02
- 3–14.7%21.29
- 1–34.6%21.69
Winning margin
8.4%
FC Augsburg by 3+
fair 11.89
11.6%
FC Augsburg by 2
fair 8.60
18.5%
FC Augsburg by 1
fair 5.41
23.6%
Draw
fair 4.23
18.3%
1899 Hoffenheim by 1
fair 5.46
11.4%
1899 Hoffenheim by 2
fair 8.77
8.1%
1899 Hoffenheim by 3+
fair 12.29
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
10%1
20%2
22%3
19%4
26%5+
FC Augsburg goals
18%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
10%4+
1899 Hoffenheim goals
18%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 38.5% | 38.8% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 23.6% | 24.7% | -1.1 pp |
| 1899 Hoffenheim win | 37.9% | 36.5% | +1.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 66.2% | 61.1% | +5.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 67.5% | 63.6% | +3.9 pp |
| Expected goals FC Augsburg | 1.71 | 1.61 | +0.11 |
| Expected goals 1899 Hoffenheim | 1.70 | 1.55 | +0.14 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- FC Augsburg win38.5%2.60
- Draw23.6%4.23
- 1899 Hoffenheim win37.9%2.64
- Double chance FC Augsburg or draw62.1%1.61
- Double chance FC Augsburg or 1899 Hoffenheim76.4%1.31
- Double chance 1899 Hoffenheim or draw61.5%1.63
- Draw no bet FC Augsburg50.4%1.98
- Draw no bet 1899 Hoffenheim49.6%2.02
Goals
- Over 0.596.2%1.04
- Over 1.585.9%1.16
- Over 2.566.2%1.51
- Over 3.544.4%2.25
- Over 4.525.8%3.88
- Under 1.514.1%7.11
- Under 2.533.8%2.96
- Under 3.555.6%1.80
Both teams to score
- Yes67.5%1.48
- No32.5%3.07
- Yes and over 2.557.3%1.74
- FC Augsburg win and yes24.0%4.16
- Draw and yes19.8%5.05
- 1899 Hoffenheim win and yes23.6%4.23
Team goals
- FC Augsburg over 0.582.0%1.22
- FC Augsburg over 1.551.1%1.96
- FC Augsburg over 2.524.6%4.06
- 1899 Hoffenheim over 0.581.7%1.22
- 1899 Hoffenheim over 1.550.6%1.98
- 1899 Hoffenheim over 2.524.2%4.13
- FC Augsburg clean sheet18.3%5.46
- 1899 Hoffenheim clean sheet18.0%5.55
- FC Augsburg win to nil14.5%6.89
- 1899 Hoffenheim win to nil14.2%7.03
Handicap
- FC Augsburg −1.520.0%4.99
- FC Augsburg −2.58.4%11.89
- 1899 Hoffenheim +1.580.0%1.25
- 1899 Hoffenheim +2.591.6%1.09
- 1899 Hoffenheim −1.519.5%5.12
- FC Augsburg +1.580.5%1.24
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored252
Favourite won56.3%
Avg chance given to result43.2%
1X2 Brier0.560
Over 2.5 called right60.7%
BTTS called right57.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 33 | 38.3% | 36.4% |
| 40–50% | 79 | 44.9% | 45.6% |
| 50–60% | 68 | 55.2% | 60.3% |
| 60–70% | 39 | 64.5% | 69.2% |
| 70–80% | 22 | 73.9% | 77.3% |
| 80%+ | 11 | 86.3% | 81.8% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 205 of 252 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5524 | 0.5497 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.6% | 43.1% |
| Favourite won | 57.6% | 57.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 205 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Eintracht Frankfurt 2–2 1.FC Köln54·25·21
- ✗Union Berlin 1–1 FC St. Pauli48·27·25
- ✗VfB Stuttgart 0–2 Borussia Dortmund43·22·35
- ✗Hamburger SV 1–1 FC Augsburg39·25·36
- ✓Bayer Leverkusen 6–3 VfL Wolfsburg72·17·10
- ✗1899 Hoffenheim 1–2 FSV Mainz 0541·26·33
- ✗Borussia Mönchengladbach 2–2 1. FC Heidenheim59·23·19
- ✓Werder Bremen 1–2 RB Leipzig29·25·46
- ✓SC Freiburg 2–3 Bayern München12·15·72
- ✓FC Augsburg 2–5 VfB Stuttgart31·25·44
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 252 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.