FC Augsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
FC Augsburg
11th · 32 pts · 28 played
WLLLD
2–2Full time
1899 Hoffenheim
5th · 50 pts · 28 played
LWDLL
Our take
It was too close to call.
1899 Hoffenheim were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 41). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for FC Augsburg. FC Augsburg had 6.2 days of rest, 1899 Hoffenheim 6.2 and had to travel 177 km.
Away travel177 kmRest days6.2 · 6.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
FC Augsburg39%
Draw24%
1899 Hoffenheim38%
FC Augsburg33%
Draw27%
1899 Hoffenheim39%
FC Augsburg38%
Draw24%
1899 Hoffenheim38%
FC Augsburg31%
Draw23%
1899 Hoffenheim46%
FC Augsburg39%
Draw25%
1899 Hoffenheim37%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 67%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Augsburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyDaniel Schlager
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 91
Team strength
FC Augsburg1899 Hoffenheim
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
58
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
72
AttackIn forecast
46
23
DefenceIn forecast
43
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1899 Hoffenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC Augsburg1899 Hoffenheim
1.21
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.96
1.82
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.46
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.58
1.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.38
71%
Scored inContext
82%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
12.39
ShotsContext
13.68
4.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.04
33%
On target shareContext
37%
7.63
Shots in the boxContext
9.63
61%
Box shareContext
69%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
2.35
OffsidesContext
2.18
13.32
Shots allowedContext
11.96
4.59
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.25
4.42
BlocksContext
3.46
2.92
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.08
61%
Save rateContext
70%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
393
PassesContext
461
314
Accurate passesContext
372
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.89
11.11
FoulsContext
13.25
11.29
Fouls sufferedContext
8.79
2.46
Yellow cardsContext
1.93
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.41
xGVia Att/Def
1.59
1.84
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.71
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.10
ShotsContext
15.10
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
36%
On target shareContext
35%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.40
60%
Box shareContext
71%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.22
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.70
Shots allowedContext
13.50
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
4.63
BlocksContext
3.78
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
71%
Save rateContext
60%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
389
PassesContext
459
309
Accurate passesContext
370
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.84
10.40
FoulsContext
10.80
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
8.10
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Augsburg
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,159 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel177 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Augsburg |
1899 Hoffenheim |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 4 Apr | 6.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 4 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 177 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,159 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Augsburg
Confirmed XI
1F. Dahmen(G)
16C. Zesiger
6J. Gouweleeuw
34Arthur Chaves
13D. Giannoulis
32F. Rieder
19Robin Fellhauer
27M. Wolf
20A. Claude-Maurice
30A. Kade
38M. Gregoritsch
1899 Hoffenheim
Confirmed XI
1O. Baumann(G)
21A. Hajdari
5O. Kabak
2R. Hranáč
29B. Toure
7L. Avdullahu
6G. Prömel
34V. Coufal
27A. Kramarić
19T. Lemperle
11F. Asllani
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Augsburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1899 Hoffenheim
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Augsburg+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- 1899 Hoffenheim-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Augsburg · Home
1.50points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-5
- Scored
- 1.36
- Conceded
- 1.71
1899 Hoffenheim · Away
1.79points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-4-3
- Scored
- 1.86
- Conceded
- 1.71
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | FC Augsburg | 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | W 4–1 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 2–5 HL 2–3 A | D 0–0 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–2 AL 0–6 H | L 0–5 AW 3–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–2 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 HW 3–2 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A | W 4–2 AW 3–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 0–2 AL 1–4 H | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Bayern München | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H | L 1–5 AL 1–4 H |
| SC Freiburg | D 2–2 HW 3–1 A | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Union Berlin | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 HW 4–2 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–4 A | W 5–1 H |
| Werder Bremen | D 0–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 0–1 A | W 3–1 AL 1–3 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Points | 32 of 81 · 1.19 per game | 47 of 81 · 1.74 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
1 FC Augsburg wins3 draws5 1899 Hoffenheim wins
Goals per game0.56 – 1.78
Over 2.544%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets22% · 44%
- 29 Nov 20251899 Hoffenheim3–0FC Augsburg
- 29 Mar 20251899 Hoffenheim1–1FC Augsburg
- 10 Nov 2024FC Augsburg0–01899 Hoffenheim
- 7 Apr 20241899 Hoffenheim3–1FC Augsburg
- 11 Nov 2023FC Augsburg1–11899 Hoffenheim
- 17 Feb 2023FC Augsburg1–01899 Hoffenheim
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Augsburg | 1899 Hoffenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.21 | 1.96 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.82 | 1.46 | |
| Match goals | 3.04 | 3.43 | 3.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 68% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 64% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 18% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| FC Augsburg | 1899 Hoffenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.60 | 3.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Augsburg | 1899 Hoffenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.36 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.32 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.68 | 10.50 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 61% 17/28 | 75% 21/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 14/28 | 68% 19/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 12/28 | 50% 14/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 1.43 | |
| Match total | 4.25 | 3.43 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 19/28 | 57% 16/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 54% 15/28 | 21% 6/28 | |
| FC Augsburg | 1899 Hoffenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 6.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.70 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 11.20 | 11.40 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.60 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniel Schlager Germany · 91 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.18league 3.74
Red cards0.24league 0.18
Cards 5+48%league 38%
Fouls22.3league 20.5
Penalties0.29league 0.36
Home wins56%league 44%
FC Augsburg12 with this referee
Record4-3-5
Cards · opp.3.1 · 1.9
Pens for · against2 · 6
Reds4
- W21 Feb 26A · VfL Wolfsburg3–24
- L20 Sep 25H · FSV Mainz 051–41
- D8 Feb 25A · FSV Mainz 050–03
- L12 Jan 25H · VfB Stuttgart0–15
- L22 Nov 24A · Bayern München0–32
1899 Hoffenheim8 with this referee
Record3-1-4
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W17 Jan 26H · Bayer Leverkusen1–02
- L17 May 25H · Bayern München0–40
- D9 Mar 25H · 1. FC Heidenheim1–12
- L14 Sep 24H · Bayer Leverkusen1–42
- L12 Nov 22H · VfL Wolfsburg1–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Augsburg28 games · scored 34 · conceded 51
3
6
0-15
4
10
16-30
6
10
31-45
9
10
46-60
3
7
61-75
9
8
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim28 games · scored 55 · conceded 41
4
6
0-15
9
8
16-30
15
6
31-45
13
5
46-60
5
8
61-75
9
8
76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
4
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 17 · conceded 19
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
6
4
31-45
6
46-60
5
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
