FC Augsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
FC Augsburg
15th · 7 pts · 8 played
LLWDL
0–1Full time
Borussia Dortmund
4th · 17 pts · 8 played
WWDLW
Our take
Borussia Dortmund were clear favourites.
Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 38). FC Augsburg had 6.3 days of rest, Borussia Dortmund 6.1 and had to travel 427 km.
Away travel427 kmRest days6.3 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
FC Augsburg18%
Draw22%
Borussia Dortmund61%
FC Augsburg18%
Draw23%
Borussia Dortmund59%
FC Augsburg17%
Draw22%
Borussia Dortmund61%
FC Augsburg13%
Draw19%
Borussia Dortmund68%
FC Augsburg18%
Draw23%
Borussia Dortmund58%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Augsburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTobias Stieler
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 91
Team strength
FC AugsburgBorussia Dortmund
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
82
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
72
AttackIn forecast
69
23
DefenceIn forecast
80
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBorussia Dortmund
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC AugsburgBorussia Dortmund
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.75
2.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.75
0.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.60
1.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.89
+0.66
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
88%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
63%
11.25
ShotsContext
13.38
3.63
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.13
32%
On target shareContext
38%
6.25
Shots in the boxContext
9.25
56%
Box shareContext
71%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
2.86
OffsidesContext
1.86
13.00
Shots allowedContext
9.38
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.29
3.57
BlocksContext
2.29
2.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.83
56%
Save rateContext
77%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
396
PassesContext
539
317
Accurate passesContext
466
80%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.68
Team ratingContext
7.02
12.75
FoulsContext
11.25
10.25
Fouls sufferedContext
10.25
3.38
Yellow cardsContext
1.88
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
2.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.57
1.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
+0.42
Goals minus xGContext
+0.73
80%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.50
ShotsContext
13.00
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
29%
On target shareContext
39%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
57%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
18%
2.67
OffsidesContext
1.71
13.70
Shots allowedContext
9.90
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.22
3.88
BlocksContext
3.13
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
55%
Save rateContext
75%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
403
PassesContext
542
325
Accurate passesContext
466
81%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.71
Team ratingContext
7.03
11.50
FoulsContext
10.70
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Augsburg
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km805 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Borussia Dortmund
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel427 km955 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Augsburg |
Borussia Dortmund |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.3Bundesliga 2025-2026, 25 Oct | 6.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 25 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 427 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 805 km | 955 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.9 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Augsburg
Confirmed XI
1F. Dahmen(G)
13D. Giannoulis
31K. Schlotterbeck
5C. Matsima
40N. Banks
19Robin Fellhauer
20A. Claude-Maurice
4H. Massengo
8E. Rexhbeçaj
32F. Rieder
36M. Kömür
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed XI
1G. Kobel(G)
5A. Bensebaini
3W. Anton
28A. Anselmino
14M. Beier
8F. Nmecha
13P. Groß
2Yan Couto
10J. Brandt
9S. Guirassy
17C. Chukwuemeka
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Augsburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Borussia Dortmund
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Augsburg+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Borussia Dortmund-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Augsburg · Home
0.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 3.50
Borussia Dortmund · Away
1.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | FC Augsburg | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | L 0–6 H | D 1–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | L 1–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–4 H | W 2–0 A |
| FC St. Pauli | L 1–2 A | D 3–3 A |
| Bayern München | L 2–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 4 of 21 · 0.57 per game | 14 of 21 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 FC Augsburg wins2 draws4 Borussia Dortmund wins
Goals per game1.25 – 2.13
Over 2.563%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets13% · 13%
- 8 Mar 2025Borussia Dortmund0–1FC Augsburg
- 26 Oct 2024FC Augsburg2–1Borussia Dortmund
- 4 May 2024Borussia Dortmund5–1FC Augsburg
- 16 Dec 2023FC Augsburg1–1Borussia Dortmund
- 21 May 2023FC Augsburg0–3Borussia Dortmund
- 22 Jan 2023Borussia Dortmund4–3FC Augsburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Augsburg | Borussia Dortmund | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.50 | 3.14 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 88% | 38% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 63% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 88% | 38% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 63% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 0% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| FC Augsburg | Borussia Dortmund | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.50 | 3.14 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 88% | 38% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 63% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 88% | 38% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 63% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 0% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Augsburg | Borussia Dortmund | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.38 | 5.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.38 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 8.76 | 10.25 | 9.84 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.38 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| Match total | 5.38 | 3.75 | 4.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 63% 5/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| FC Augsburg | Borussia Dortmund | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 5.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 9.22 | 10.22 | 9.84 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.10 | 4.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Stieler Germany · 91 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.66league 4.22
Red cards0.19league 0.22
Cards 5+32%league 43%
Fouls22.1league 22.5
Penalties0.32league 0.40
Home wins54%league 43%
FC Augsburg3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W12 Apr 24H · Union Berlin2–01
- W22 Oct 23A · 1. FC Heidenheim5–22
- L29 Oct 22A · VfB Stuttgart1–22
Borussia Dortmund13 with this referee
Record8-1-4
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.9
Pens for · against4 · 3
- W1 Mar 25A · FC St. Pauli2–02
- L10 Jan 25H · Bayer Leverkusen2–31
- D7 Dec 24A · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–12
- W2 Nov 24H · RB Leipzig2–13
- L11 May 24A · FSV Mainz 050–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Augsburg8 games · scored 12 · conceded 20
1
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
6
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
Borussia Dortmund8 games · scored 14 · conceded 6
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
5
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 13 · conceded 26
1
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
7
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
5
76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 23 · conceded 10
1
0-15
5
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
8
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
