FC Augsburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
FC Augsburg
9th · 40 pts · 32 played
DDWDW
3–1Full time
Borussia Mönchengladbach
11th · 35 pts · 32 played
DLDDW
FC Augsburg48.0%fair odds 2.08
Draw24.2%fair odds 4.13
Borussia Mönchengladbach27.8%fair odds 3.59
Expected goals1.80 – 1.32total 3.12
Likeliest score1–111.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Borussia Mönchengladbach
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| FC Augsburg ↓ · Borussia Mönchengladbach → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.1 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are FC Augsburg goals, columns Borussia Mönchengladbach goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.1%9.04
- 2–19.4%10.61
- 1–07.4%13.56
- 2–07.1%14.05
- 1–27.0%14.38
- 2–26.2%16.02
- 3–15.6%17.73
- 0–15.3%18.89
- 0–05.0%20.11
- 3–04.3%23.48
Winning margin
11.9%
FC Augsburg by 3+
fair 8.41
14.7%
FC Augsburg by 2
fair 6.79
21.4%
FC Augsburg by 1
fair 4.68
24.2%
Draw
fair 4.13
15.6%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 1
fair 6.40
8.0%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 2
fair 12.47
4.2%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 3+
fair 23.94
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
21%5+
FC Augsburg goals
17%0
30%1
27%2
16%3
11%4+
Borussia Mönchengladbach goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 48.0% | 47.9% | +0.1 pp |
| Draw | 24.2% | 24.7% | -0.5 pp |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 27.8% | 27.4% | +0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 60.3% | 57.8% | +2.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 61.8% | 59.8% | +2.0 pp |
| Expected goals FC Augsburg | 1.80 | 1.74 | +0.06 |
| Expected goals Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1.32 | 1.27 | +0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- FC Augsburg win48.0%2.08
- Draw24.2%4.13
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win27.8%3.59
- Double chance FC Augsburg or draw72.2%1.39
- Double chance FC Augsburg or Borussia Mönchengladbach75.8%1.32
- Double chance Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw52.0%1.92
- Draw no bet FC Augsburg63.3%1.58
- Draw no bet Borussia Mönchengladbach36.7%2.72
Goals
- Over 0.595.0%1.05
- Over 1.582.4%1.21
- Over 2.560.3%1.66
- Over 3.538.0%2.63
- Over 4.520.5%4.87
- Under 1.517.6%5.67
- Under 2.539.7%2.52
- Under 3.562.0%1.61
Both teams to score
- Yes61.8%1.62
- No38.2%2.62
- Yes and over 2.550.7%1.97
- FC Augsburg win and yes26.4%3.79
- Draw and yes19.2%5.20
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win and yes16.2%6.18
Team goals
- FC Augsburg over 0.583.4%1.20
- FC Augsburg over 1.553.6%1.87
- FC Augsburg over 2.526.8%3.73
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 0.573.4%1.36
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 1.538.2%2.62
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 2.514.9%6.73
- FC Augsburg clean sheet26.6%3.76
- Borussia Mönchengladbach clean sheet16.6%6.02
- FC Augsburg win to nil21.6%4.63
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win to nil11.6%8.59
Handicap
- FC Augsburg −1.526.6%3.76
- FC Augsburg −2.511.9%8.41
- Borussia Mönchengladbach +1.573.4%1.36
- Borussia Mönchengladbach +2.588.1%1.13
- Borussia Mönchengladbach −1.512.2%8.20
- FC Augsburg +1.587.8%1.14
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored289
Favourite won55.7%
Avg chance given to result43.0%
1X2 Brier0.568
Over 2.5 called right61.9%
BTTS called right59.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 38 | 38.3% | 34.2% |
| 40–50% | 91 | 45.0% | 46.2% |
| 50–60% | 75 | 55.1% | 60.0% |
| 60–70% | 45 | 64.7% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 27 | 74.1% | 77.8% |
| 80%+ | 13 | 87.2% | 76.9% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 240 of 289 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5628 | 0.5582 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.3% | 42.7% |
| Favourite won | 56.7% | 55.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 240 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✗Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–0 Borussia Dortmund20·22·58
- ✓FC St. Pauli 1–2 FSV Mainz 0524·25·51
- ✓Bayer Leverkusen 4–1 RB Leipzig43·22·35
- ✗Union Berlin 2–2 1.FC Köln32·24·44
- ✗Eintracht Frankfurt 1–2 Hamburger SV63·20·17
- ✗1899 Hoffenheim 3–3 VfB Stuttgart37·23·40
- ✗Werder Bremen 1–3 FC Augsburg48·24·28
- ✗Bayern München 3–3 1. FC Heidenheim94·4·2
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 289 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.