FC Augsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
FC Augsburg
9th · 40 pts · 32 played
DDWDW
3–1Full time
Borussia Mönchengladbach
11th · 35 pts · 32 played
DLDDW
Our take
FC Augsburg were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards FC Augsburg. FC Augsburg had 7 days of rest, Borussia Mönchengladbach 5.9 and had to travel 447 km.
Away travel447 kmRest days7 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
FC Augsburg48%
Draw24%
Borussia Mönchengladbach28%
FC Augsburg45%
Draw27%
Borussia Mönchengladbach28%
FC Augsburg47%
Draw25%
Borussia Mönchengladbach28%
FC Augsburg40%
Draw25%
Borussia Mönchengladbach35%
FC Augsburg48%
Draw25%
Borussia Mönchengladbach27%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Augsburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTobias Reichel
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 57
Team strength
FC AugsburgBorussia Mönchengladbach
46
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
72
AttackIn forecast
34
23
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBorussia Mönchengladbach
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC AugsburgBorussia Mönchengladbach
1.31
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.16
1.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.56
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.68
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
75%
Scored inContext
63%
16%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
12.66
ShotsContext
11.16
4.28
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
34%
On target shareContext
36%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.77
63%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.24
OffsidesContext
2.19
14.09
Shots allowedContext
13.69
4.77
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.34
4.64
BlocksContext
3.26
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.84
64%
Save rateContext
72%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
379
PassesContext
429
301
Accurate passesContext
353
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.82
10.63
FoulsContext
10.16
11.22
Fouls sufferedContext
10.31
2.41
Yellow cardsContext
1.72
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.60
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
90%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.70
ShotsContext
11.40
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
34%
On target shareContext
35%
9.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
68%
Box shareContext
70%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.11
16.10
Shots allowedContext
12.10
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
5.00
BlocksContext
3.11
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
73%
Save rateContext
77%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
334
PassesContext
438
260
Accurate passesContext
356
78%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.91
9.70
FoulsContext
8.70
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.10
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Augsburg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,087 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel447 km657 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Augsburg |
Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 2 May | 5.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 3 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 447 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,087 km | 657 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Augsburg
Confirmed XI
1F. Dahmen(G)
16C. Zesiger
6J. Gouweleeuw
5C. Matsima
13D. Giannoulis
32F. Rieder
17K. Jakić
27M. Wolf
36M. Kömür
30A. Kade
38M. Gregoritsch
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Confirmed XI
33M. Nicolas(G)
29J. Scally
2F. Chiarodia
4K. Diks
16P. Sander
7K. Stöger
6Y. Engelhardt
27R. Reitz
36W. Mohya
18S. Machino
9F. Honorat
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Augsburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Augsburg+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Borussia Mönchengladbach-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Augsburg · Home
1.44points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-5-5
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.69
Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away
0.88points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-8
- Scored
- 1.06
- Conceded
- 1.63
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | FC Augsburg | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen | W 3–1 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 AL 0–4 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | L 0–3 AL 4–6 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | D 2–2 HL 0–3 A | L 1–5 A |
| Hamburger SV | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 2–5 HL 2–3 A | L 0–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–2 AL 0–6 H | L 0–1 AD 0–0 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | D 3–3 AW 3–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–2 AW 3–1 H | D 0–0 AL 1–3 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A | D 2–2 HW 3–0 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 0–2 AL 1–4 H | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | W 2–0 HW 4–0 A |
| Bayern München | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H | L 1–4 AL 0–3 H |
| SC Freiburg | D 2–2 HW 3–1 A | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Union Berlin | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Points | 40 of 93 · 1.29 per game | 32 of 93 · 1.03 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
5 FC Augsburg wins1 draws3 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets33% · 22%
- 11 Jan 2026Borussia Mönchengladbach4–0FC Augsburg
- 22 Feb 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach0–3FC Augsburg
- 4 Oct 2024FC Augsburg2–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 21 Jan 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach1–2FC Augsburg
- 19 Aug 2023FC Augsburg4–4Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 27 May 2023Borussia Mönchengladbach2–0FC Augsburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Augsburg | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.31 | 1.16 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 1.56 | |
| Match goals | 3.06 | 2.72 | 3.12 |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 50% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 34% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 41% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 16% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 38% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| FC Augsburg | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.50 | 3.12 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Augsburg | Borussia Mönchengladbach | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.41 | 3.77 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 4.77 | |
| Match total | 9.97 | 8.54 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 20/32 | 43% 13/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 17/32 | 37% 11/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 14/32 | 27% 8/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.44 | 1.81 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.78 | 2.19 | |
| Match total | 4.22 | 4.00 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 20/32 | 44% 14/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 16/32 | 38% 12/32 | |
| FC Augsburg | Borussia Mönchengladbach | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 2.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.30 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 12.10 | 7.12 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 5.20 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Reichel Germany · 57 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.77league 3.71
Red cards0.11league 0.17
Cards 5+39%league 38%
Fouls24.0league 20.2
Penalties0.30league 0.35
Home wins46%league 43%
FC Augsburg5 with this referee
Record2-2-1
Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.2
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- D29 Mar 25A · 1899 Hoffenheim1–12
- D1 Feb 25A · FC St. Pauli1–13
- W30 Nov 24H · VfL Bochum1–03
- L17 Feb 24A · FSV Mainz 050–13
- W14 May 22H · SpVgg Greuther Fürth2–12
Borussia Mönchengladbach5 with this referee
Record2-2-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L17 Oct 25A · Union Berlin1–33
- W2 Dec 23H · 1899 Hoffenheim2–12
- D17 Mar 23H · Werder Bremen2–21
- D26 Feb 22H · VfL Wolfsburg2–22
- W31 Oct 21H · VfL Bochum2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Augsburg32 games · scored 42 · conceded 56
6
7
0-15
5
10
16-30
8
12
31-45
9
10
46-60
4
9
61-75
10
8
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach32 games · scored 37 · conceded 50
5
8
0-15
4
8
16-30
6
11
31-45
3
2
46-60
9
9
61-75
10
12
76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 17 · conceded 17
3
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
