FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 – 20 Sep 2025

Bundesliga Gameweek 4 Sat, Sep 20 · 14:30 WWK Arena, Augsburg

FC Augsburg 12th · 3 pts · 3 played WLL

1–4Full time

FSV Mainz 05 15th · 1 pts · 3 played LDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

FSV Mainz 05 were the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 44). FC Augsburg had 6 days of rest, FSV Mainz 05 7 and had to travel 261 km.

Away travel261 kmRest days6 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

FC Augsburg37%

Draw26%

FSV Mainz 0537%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.46

FC Augsburg37%

Draw27%

FSV Mainz 0535%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.32

FC Augsburg37%

Draw26%

FSV Mainz 0537%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.42

FC Augsburg30%

Draw25%

FSV Mainz 0545%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.64

FC Augsburg37%

Draw27%

FSV Mainz 0536%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.35

Over 2.5 56% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Augsburg)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyDaniel Schlager

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.31
Matches 74

Team strength

FC Augsburg

FSV Mainz 05

44 L90 StrengthIn forecast 55

50 Current StrengthIn forecast 55

72 AttackIn forecast 68

23 DefenceIn forecast 56

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FC Augsburg

Attack—

Defense risk—

FSV Mainz 05

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FC Augsburg

FSV Mainz 05

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.33

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

0.73 xGVia Att/Def 1.16

2.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18

+1.27 Goals minus xGContext -0.83

100% Scored inContext 33%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

10.67 ShotsContext 15.67

4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.33

41% On target shareContext 15%

6.67 Shots in the boxContext 12.00

63% Box shareContext 77%

19% ConversionContext 2%

3.00 OffsidesContext 4.50

15.67 Shots allowedContext 14.00

6.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.67

4.33 BlocksContext 3.67

4.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.67

70% Save rateContext 63%

42% PossessionIn forecast 55%

357 PassesContext 427

279 Accurate passesContext 336

78% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.81

14.33 FoulsContext 10.67

11.33 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

4.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.33

This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.04 xGVia Att/Def 1.52

2.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.23

+0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

70% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 0%

12.40 ShotsContext 15.60

4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

32% On target shareContext 29%

7.78 Shots in the boxContext 11.60

60% Box shareContext 73%

9% ConversionContext 10%

2.38 OffsidesContext 3.75

15.30 Shots allowedContext 11.30

6.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

3.89 BlocksContext 2.50

4.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.40

66% Save rateContext 62%

46% PossessionIn forecast 54%

405 PassesContext 421

331 Accurate passesContext 335

82% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.92

9.30 FoulsContext 11.10

10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 9.90

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FC Augsburg

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,159 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

FSV Mainz 05

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel261 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FC Augsburg	FSV Mainz 05
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Sep	7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 13 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	261 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,159 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FC Augsburg Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1F. Dahmen(G)

16C. Zesiger 6J. Gouweleeuw 5C. Matsima

8E. Rexhbeçaj 4H. Massengo 36M. Kömür 27M. Wolf

26E. Saad 32F. Rieder

20A. Claude-Maurice

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

FSV Mainz 05 Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

27R. Zentner(G)

31D. Kohr 25A. Hanche-Olsen 21D. da Costa

2P. Mwene 10N. Amiri 6K. Sano 19A. Caci

9A. Nordin 8P. Nebel

11A. Sieb

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FC Augsburg Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

FSV Mainz 05 Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

FC Augsburg-0.1 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
FSV Mainz 05+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

FC Augsburg · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 3.00

FSV Mainz 05 · Away 1.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 FC Augsburg wins1 draws5 FSV Mainz 05 wins

Goals per game1.13 – 1.88 Over 2.575% Both scored75% Clean sheets13% · 25%

8 Feb 2025FSV Mainz 050–0FC Augsburg
20 Sep 2024FC Augsburg2–3FSV Mainz 05
17 Feb 2024FSV Mainz 051–0FC Augsburg
23 Sep 2023FC Augsburg2–1FSV Mainz 05
11 Feb 2023FSV Mainz 053–1FC Augsburg
20 Aug 2022FC Augsburg1–2FSV Mainz 05

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	FC Augsburg	FSV Mainz 05	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	0.33
Conceded per game	2.00	1.00
Match goals	4.00	1.33	2.92
Over 1.5	100%	33%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	56%
Over 3.5	67%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	33%	59%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	67%
Games	3	3

	FC Augsburg	FSV Mainz 05	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	0.33
Conceded per game	2.00	1.00
Match goals	4.00	1.33	2.92
Over 1.5	100%	33%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	56%
Over 3.5	67%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	33%	59%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	67%
Games	3	3

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FC Augsburg	FSV Mainz 05	League
Corners
Corners won	4.33	6.67
Corners conceded	4.33	3.67
Match total	8.66	10.34	9.96
Over 8.5	67% 2/3	67% 2/3
Over 9.5	67% 2/3	67% 2/3
Over 10.5	33% 1/3	33% 1/3
Cards
Cards	4.00	2.67
Opponent cards	3.00	1.67
Match total	7.00	4.34	4.63
Over 3.5	100% 3/3	67% 2/3
Over 4.5	100% 3/3	33% 1/3

	FC Augsburg	FSV Mainz 05	League
Corners
Corners won	4.13	6.40
Corners conceded	5.88	3.50
Match total	10.01	9.90	9.96
Over 8.5	75% 6/8	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	75% 6/8	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	1.80
Opponent cards	1.50	2.00
Match total	3.80	3.80	4.63
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Daniel Schlager Germany · 74 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.20league 4.25

Red cards0.20league 0.36

Cards 5+49%league 50%

Fouls22.7league 23.0

Penalties0.31league 0.50

Home wins57%league 43%

FC Augsburg10 with this referee

Record3-3-4 Cards · opp.3.2 · 1.9 Pens for · against1 · 6 Reds4

D8 Feb 25A · FSV Mainz 050–03
L12 Jan 25H · VfB Stuttgart0–15
L22 Nov 24A · Bayern München0–32
W28 Oct 23H · VfL Wolfsburg3–26
D19 Aug 23H · Borussia Mönchengladbach4–41

FSV Mainz 057 with this referee

Record1-3-3 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.1 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

L30 Mar 25A · Borussia Dortmund1–30
D8 Feb 25H · FC Augsburg0–03
W6 Apr 24H · SV Darmstadt 984–02
L10 Sep 22A · 1899 Hoffenheim1–43
D14 Aug 22H · Union Berlin0–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.