FC Augsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FC Augsburg were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. FC Augsburg had 12.9 days of rest, Hamburger SV 14 and had to travel 579 km.
Away travel579 kmRest days12.9 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
FC Augsburg48%
Draw25%
Hamburger SV27%
FC Augsburg47%
Draw26%
Hamburger SV27%
FC Augsburg47%
Draw26%
Hamburger SV27%
FC Augsburg40%
Draw26%
Hamburger SV34%
FC Augsburg47%
Draw26%
Hamburger SV27%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Augsburg)
No weather data yet
RefereeRobin Braun
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.57
- Matches 7
Team strength
FC Augsburg
Hamburger SV
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
32
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
40
72
AttackIn forecast
37
23
DefenceIn forecast
43
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHamburger SV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC AugsburgHamburger SV
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
+0.46
Goals minus xGContext
-0.22
80%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.50
ShotsContext
12.80
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
31%
On target shareContext
35%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.44
58%
Box shareContext
61%
12%
ConversionContext
7%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.40
12.60
Shots allowedContext
15.00
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
3.75
BlocksContext
3.90
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
55%
Save rateContext
65%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
391
PassesContext
405
309
Accurate passesContext
337
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.86
12.60
FoulsContext
13.00
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
3.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
+0.46
Goals minus xGContext
-0.22
80%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.50
ShotsContext
12.80
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
31%
On target shareContext
35%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.44
58%
Box shareContext
61%
12%
ConversionContext
7%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.40
12.60
Shots allowedContext
15.00
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
3.75
BlocksContext
3.90
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
55%
Save rateContext
65%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
391
PassesContext
405
309
Accurate passesContext
337
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.86
12.60
FoulsContext
13.00
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
3.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Augsburg
Rest12.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km269 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Hamburger SV
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel579 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Augsburg |
Hamburger SV |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 9 Nov | 14Bundesliga 2025-2026, 8 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 579 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 269 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Augsburg
Confirmed XI
1F. Dahmen(G)
31K. Schlotterbeck
5C. Matsima
40N. Banks
13D. Giannoulis
4H. Massengo
19Robin Fellhauer
30A. Kade
36M. Kömür
20A. Claude-Maurice
32F. Rieder
Hamburger SV
Confirmed XI
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
25J. Torunarigha
44L. Vušković
24N. Capaldo
28M. Muheim
21N. Remberg
6A. Sambi Lokonga
16G. Gocholeishvili
7Jean-Luc Dompe
11R. Königsdörffer
20Fábio Vieira
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Augsburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Hamburger SV
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Augsburg+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Hamburger SV-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Augsburg · Home
0.60points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-4
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 3.00
Hamburger SV · Away
0.40points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-3
- Scored
- 0.40
- Conceded
- 2.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | FC Augsburg | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–6 H | L 1–2 A |
| 1.FC Köln | D 1–1 A | L 1–4 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–4 H | W 4–0 H |
| FC St. Pauli | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Bayern München | L 2–3 H | L 0–5 A |
| Points | 4 of 24 · 0.50 per game | 7 of 24 · 0.88 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| FC Augsburg | Hamburger SV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.80 | 2.50 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| FC Augsburg | Hamburger SV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.80 | 2.50 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Augsburg | Hamburger SV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 8.40 | 9.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.40 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 4.80 | 4.31 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| FC Augsburg | Hamburger SV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 8.40 | 9.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.40 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 4.80 | 4.31 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robin Braun 7 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.43league 4.12
Red cards0.29league 0.21
Cards 5+43%league 43%
Fouls20.0league 22.2
Penalties0.57league 0.36
Home wins43%league 45%
FC AugsburgNo previous matches with this referee.
Hamburger SVNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 14 · conceded 24
2
2
0-15
2
5
16-30
3
5
31-45
3
6
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
Hamburger SV10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
2
3
0-15
4
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 14 · conceded 24
2
2
0-15
2
5
16-30
3
5
31-45
3
6
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
Hamburger SV10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
2
3
0-15
4
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
