FC Augsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
FC Augsburg
15th · 13 pts · 14 played
LWLWL
0–0Full time
Werder Bremen
12th · 16 pts · 14 played
WLDLL
Our take
It was too close to call.
Werder Bremen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 39). FC Augsburg had 7 days of rest, Werder Bremen 5.8 and had to travel 543 km.
Away travel543 kmRest days7 · 5.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
FC Augsburg40%
Draw26%
Werder Bremen34%
FC Augsburg38%
Draw27%
Werder Bremen34%
FC Augsburg39%
Draw26%
Werder Bremen35%
FC Augsburg32%
Draw26%
Werder Bremen42%
FC Augsburg39%
Draw27%
Werder Bremen34%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Augsburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTobias Welz
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 44
Team strength
FC AugsburgWerder Bremen
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
48
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
72
AttackIn forecast
56
23
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWerder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC AugsburgWerder Bremen
1.21
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.29
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.68
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
71%
Scored inContext
71%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
11.86
ShotsContext
12.21
3.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.36
31%
On target shareContext
36%
7.23
Shots in the boxContext
7.69
61%
Box shareContext
60%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.69
OffsidesContext
1.82
13.36
Shots allowedContext
15.64
4.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.21
4.42
BlocksContext
3.93
2.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
60%
Save rateContext
64%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
389
PassesContext
449
309
Accurate passesContext
369
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.77
12.00
FoulsContext
9.71
11.14
Fouls sufferedContext
9.64
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.43
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
60%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.60
ShotsContext
12.40
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
29%
On target shareContext
32%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.78
60%
Box shareContext
58%
9%
ConversionContext
8%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.80
Shots allowedContext
16.20
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.90
4.50
BlocksContext
4.00
2.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.80
54%
Save rateContext
70%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
391
PassesContext
446
309
Accurate passesContext
364
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.20
FoulsContext
9.40
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
9.70
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Augsburg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km504 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Werder Bremen
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel543 km190 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Augsburg |
Werder Bremen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 13 Dec | 5.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 543 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 504 km | 190 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 22 | 24.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Augsburg
Confirmed XI
1F. Dahmen(G)
16C. Zesiger
31K. Schlotterbeck
40N. Banks
13D. Giannoulis
4H. Massengo
17K. Jakić
19Robin Fellhauer
20A. Claude-Maurice
32F. Rieder
27M. Wolf
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
30M. Backhaus(G)
5A. Pieper
32M. Friedl
4N. Stark
23I. Schmidt
18Cameron Puertas
14S. Lynen
6J. Stage
3Y. Sugawara
20R. Schmid
11J. Njinmah
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Augsburg
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Werder Bremen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Augsburg+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Werder Bremen-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Augsburg · Home
1.29points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-4
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 2.14
Werder Bremen · Away
0.71points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-4
- Scored
- 1.43
- Conceded
- 2.29
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | FC Augsburg | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 0–1 A | L 1–4 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 2–0 H | D 3–3 H |
| Hamburger SV | W 1–0 H | L 2–3 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 2–3 A | L 0–4 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–6 H | L 0–2 A |
| 1.FC Köln | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–4 H | D 1–1 A |
| FC St. Pauli | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Bayern München | L 2–3 H | L 0–4 A |
| SC Freiburg | W 3–1 A | L 0–3 H |
| Points | 13 of 36 · 1.08 per game | 10 of 36 · 0.83 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 FC Augsburg wins1 draws2 Werder Bremen wins
Goals per game1.17 – 1.33
Over 2.550%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 19 Jan 2025Werder Bremen0–2FC Augsburg
- 24 Aug 2024FC Augsburg2–2Werder Bremen
- 27 Apr 2024FC Augsburg0–3Werder Bremen
- 9 Dec 2023Werder Bremen2–0FC Augsburg
- 4 Mar 2023FC Augsburg2–1Werder Bremen
- 9 Sep 2022Werder Bremen0–1FC Augsburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Augsburg | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.21 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.21 | 3.29 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 64% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 29% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| FC Augsburg | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.80 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Augsburg | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.14 | 5.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.29 | 7.38 | |
| Match total | 8.43 | 12.63 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 6/14 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 5/14 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 4/14 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.07 | 2.64 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.21 | |
| Match total | 5.07 | 3.85 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 79% 11/14 | 57% 8/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 71% 10/14 | 29% 4/14 | |
| FC Augsburg | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 5.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 7.17 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 13.00 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 3.50 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Welz Germany · 44 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.14league 3.91
Red cards0.16league 0.21
Cards 5+39%league 41%
Fouls23.4league 21.2
Penalties0.25league 0.32
Home wins48%league 47%
FC Augsburg8 with this referee
Record1-0-7
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.6
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- L27 Sep 25A · 1. FC Heidenheim1–26
- L21 Dec 24A · Holstein Kiel1–54
- W26 Oct 24H · Borussia Dortmund2–13
- L27 Apr 24H · Werder Bremen0–31
- L21 May 23H · Borussia Dortmund0–34
Werder Bremen5 with this referee
Record3-1-1
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W17 May 25A · 1. FC Heidenheim4–12
- W8 Mar 25A · Bayer Leverkusen2–04
- L5 Oct 24H · SC Freiburg0–11
- W27 Apr 24A · FC Augsburg3–02
- D17 Sep 22A · Bayer Leverkusen1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Augsburg14 games · scored 17 · conceded 28
3
2
0-15
3
7
16-30
3
6
31-45
3
6
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
Werder Bremen14 games · scored 18 · conceded 28
2
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
6
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
8
61-75
7
7
76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 10 · conceded 18
3
1
0-15
2
5
16-30
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 10 · conceded 18
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
46-60
2
5
61-75
4
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
