FC Augsburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
FC Augsburg
15th · 13 pts · 14 played
LWLWL
0–0Full time
Werder Bremen
12th · 16 pts · 14 played
WLDLL
FC Augsburg39.6%fair odds 2.53
Draw26.0%fair odds 3.85
Werder Bremen34.5%fair odds 2.90
Expected goals1.51 – 1.39total 2.90
Likeliest score1–112.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Werder Bremen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| FC Augsburg ↓ · Werder Bremen → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.2 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are FC Augsburg goals, columns Werder Bremen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.2%8.21
- 2–18.7%11.49
- 1–28.0%12.43
- 1–07.7%12.99
- 0–17.1%14.15
- 2–06.3%15.98
- 0–06.1%16.30
- 2–26.1%16.52
- 0–25.3%18.72
- 3–14.4%22.90
Winning margin
7.6%
FC Augsburg by 3+
fair 13.17
11.9%
FC Augsburg by 2
fair 8.37
20.0%
FC Augsburg by 1
fair 4.99
26.0%
Draw
fair 3.85
18.5%
Werder Bremen by 1
fair 5.42
10.2%
Werder Bremen by 2
fair 9.81
5.8%
Werder Bremen by 3+
fair 17.24
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
FC Augsburg goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
Werder Bremen goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 39.6% | 39.4% | +0.2 pp |
| Draw | 26.0% | 26.7% | -0.8 pp |
| Werder Bremen win | 34.5% | 33.9% | +0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.3% | 52.0% | +3.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 59.1% | 56.5% | +2.6 pp |
| Expected goals FC Augsburg | 1.51 | 1.44 | +0.07 |
| Expected goals Werder Bremen | 1.39 | 1.32 | +0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- FC Augsburg win39.6%2.53
- Draw26.0%3.85
- Werder Bremen win34.5%2.90
- Double chance FC Augsburg or draw65.5%1.53
- Double chance FC Augsburg or Werder Bremen74.0%1.35
- Double chance Werder Bremen or draw60.4%1.65
- Draw no bet FC Augsburg53.5%1.87
- Draw no bet Werder Bremen46.5%2.15
Goals
- Over 0.593.9%1.07
- Over 1.579.1%1.26
- Over 2.555.3%1.81
- Over 3.533.0%3.03
- Over 4.516.8%5.97
- Under 1.520.9%4.78
- Under 2.544.7%2.24
- Under 3.567.0%1.49
Both teams to score
- Yes59.1%1.69
- No40.9%2.44
- Yes and over 2.546.9%2.13
- FC Augsburg win and yes20.8%4.80
- Draw and yes19.8%5.04
- Werder Bremen win and yes18.4%5.43
Team goals
- FC Augsburg over 0.577.8%1.29
- FC Augsburg over 1.544.4%2.25
- FC Augsburg over 2.519.3%5.19
- Werder Bremen over 0.575.1%1.33
- Werder Bremen over 1.540.5%2.47
- Werder Bremen over 2.516.4%6.09
- FC Augsburg clean sheet24.9%4.02
- Werder Bremen clean sheet22.2%4.51
- FC Augsburg win to nil18.7%5.33
- Werder Bremen win to nil16.1%6.23
Handicap
- FC Augsburg −1.519.5%5.12
- FC Augsburg −2.57.6%13.17
- Werder Bremen +1.580.5%1.24
- Werder Bremen +2.592.4%1.08
- Werder Bremen −1.516.0%6.25
- FC Augsburg +1.584.0%1.19
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored127
Favourite won56.7%
Avg chance given to result43.3%
1X2 Brier0.556
Over 2.5 called right62.2%
BTTS called right55.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 16 | 38.1% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 41 | 45.1% | 41.5% |
| 50–60% | 33 | 54.8% | 57.6% |
| 60–70% | 22 | 65.2% | 77.3% |
| 70–80% | 12 | 74.0% | 75.0% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 88.9% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 108 of 127 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5408 | 0.5412 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.1% | 43.4% |
| Favourite won | 59.3% | 59.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 108 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✓Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 1.FC Köln72·17·11
- ✓FC St. Pauli 2–1 1. FC Heidenheim40·27·33
- ✓Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0 FC Augsburg58·23·19
- ✓1899 Hoffenheim 4–1 Hamburger SV57·23·21
- ✗Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–3 VfL Wolfsburg47·26·27
- ✗Union Berlin 3–1 RB Leipzig27·26·48
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 127 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.