FC Basel 1893
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
FC Basel 189318.9%fair odds 5.30
Draw23.0%fair odds 4.34
Aston Villa58.1%fair odds 1.72
Expected goals1.01 – 1.92total 2.93
Likeliest score1–110.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Aston Villa
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| FC Basel 1893 ↓ · Aston Villa → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are FC Basel 1893 goals, columns Aston Villa goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.9%9.17
- 1–29.9%10.06
- 0–29.9%10.14
- 0–19.7%10.29
- 1–36.4%15.72
- 0–36.3%15.85
- 0–05.9%16.96
- 2–15.2%19.15
- 2–25.0%19.95
- 1–04.8%20.64
Winning margin
1.9%
FC Basel 1893 by 3+
fair 53.68
5.0%
FC Basel 1893 by 2
fair 20.17
12.0%
FC Basel 1893 by 1
fair 8.30
23.0%
Draw
fair 4.34
23.4%
Aston Villa by 1
fair 4.27
18.0%
Aston Villa by 2
fair 5.56
16.7%
Aston Villa by 3+
fair 5.99
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
23%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
FC Basel 1893 goals
36%0
37%1
19%2
6%3
2%4+
Aston Villa goals
15%0
28%1
27%2
17%3
13%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Basel 1893 win | 18.9% | 19.0% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 23.0% | 23.7% | -0.7 pp |
| Aston Villa win | 58.1% | 57.3% | +0.8 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.1% | 53.7% | +2.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.8% | 53.1% | +1.7 pp |
| Expected goals FC Basel 1893 | 1.01 | 0.98 | +0.03 |
| Expected goals Aston Villa | 1.92 | 1.85 | +0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- FC Basel 1893 win18.9%5.30
- Draw23.0%4.34
- Aston Villa win58.1%1.72
- Double chance FC Basel 1893 or draw41.9%2.39
- Double chance FC Basel 1893 or Aston Villa77.0%1.30
- Double chance Aston Villa or draw81.1%1.23
- Draw no bet FC Basel 189324.5%4.08
- Draw no bet Aston Villa75.5%1.32
Goals
- Over 0.594.1%1.06
- Over 1.579.5%1.26
- Over 2.556.1%1.78
- Over 3.533.7%2.97
- Over 4.517.3%5.78
- Under 1.520.5%4.89
- Under 2.543.9%2.28
- Under 3.566.3%1.51
Both teams to score
- Yes54.8%1.83
- No45.2%2.21
- Yes and over 2.543.9%2.28
- FC Basel 1893 win and yes10.1%9.89
- Draw and yes17.1%5.84
- Aston Villa win and yes27.5%3.63
Team goals
- FC Basel 1893 over 0.563.5%1.57
- FC Basel 1893 over 1.526.7%3.74
- FC Basel 1893 over 2.58.2%12.22
- Aston Villa over 0.585.3%1.17
- Aston Villa over 1.557.2%1.75
- Aston Villa over 2.530.2%3.31
- FC Basel 1893 clean sheet14.7%6.82
- Aston Villa clean sheet36.5%2.74
- FC Basel 1893 win to nil8.8%11.41
- Aston Villa win to nil30.6%3.27
Handicap
- FC Basel 1893 −1.56.8%14.66
- FC Basel 1893 −2.51.9%53.68
- Aston Villa +1.593.2%1.07
- Aston Villa +2.598.1%1.02
- Aston Villa −1.534.7%2.89
- FC Basel 1893 +1.565.3%1.53
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored99
Favourite won58.6%
Avg chance given to result41.6%
1X2 Brier0.561
Over 2.5 called right53.5%
BTTS called right50.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 11 | 38.5% | 45.5% |
| 40–50% | 40 | 44.7% | 47.5% |
| 50–60% | 35 | 54.6% | 74.3% |
| 60–70% | 9 | 66.2% | 44.4% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 73.7% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 81 of 99 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5545 | 0.5440 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.1% | 43.7% |
| Favourite won | 59.3% | 64.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 81 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 99 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.