FC Basel 1893
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Aston Villa were slight favourites.
Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (85 vs 45). FC Basel 1893 had 14 days of rest, Aston Villa 5.3 and had to travel 869 km.
Away travel869 kmRest days14 · 5.3Matches / 14d1 · 3
FC Basel 189319%
Draw23%
Aston Villa58%
FC Basel 189319%
Draw24%
Aston Villa58%
FC Basel 189319%
Draw23%
Aston Villa58%
FC Basel 189314%
Draw20%
Aston Villa66%
FC Basel 189319%
Draw24%
Aston Villa57%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Basel)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeHalil Umut Meler
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 23
Team strength
FC Basel 1893
Aston Villa
45
L90 StrengthIn forecast
85
41
Current StrengthIn forecast
82
36
AttackIn forecast
83
42
DefenceIn forecast
78
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC Basel 1893Aston Villa
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.67
xGVia Att/Def
1.63
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.92
-0.27
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
80%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
14.40
ShotsContext
13.40
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
32%
On target shareContext
45%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
61%
Box shareContext
64%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.60
17.40
Shots allowedContext
10.40
6.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
5.20
BlocksContext
4.00
5.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
81%
Save rateContext
90%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
424
PassesContext
492
348
Accurate passesContext
435
82%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.97
14.00
FoulsContext
12.25
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
15.40
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.22
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.67
xGVia Att/Def
1.63
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
-0.45
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
78%
Scored inContext
90%
11%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.78
ShotsContext
14.30
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.20
34%
On target shareContext
43%
7.89
Shots in the boxContext
9.70
58%
Box shareContext
68%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
1.80
OffsidesContext
1.33
15.33
Shots allowedContext
11.70
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
4.11
BlocksContext
3.89
4.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
74%
Save rateContext
71%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
432
PassesContext
448
358
Accurate passesContext
383
83%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.95
13.78
FoulsContext
10.89
15.22
Fouls sufferedContext
15.30
1.89
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Basel 1893
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km815 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Aston Villa
Rest5.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel869 km439 km in 14d
Schedule load27%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Basel 1893 |
Aston Villa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 27 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 27 Nov | 5.3Premier League 2025-2026, 6 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 869 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 815 km | 439 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 42 | 2.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Basel 1893
Confirmed XI
1M. Hitz(G)
31D. Schmid
24F. Daniliuc
32J. Adjetey
6K. Tsunemoto
5A. Silu
7P. Otele
14A. Bacanin
22L. Leroy
11B. Traoré
10X. Shaqiri
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
40M. Bizot(G)
12L. Digne
3V. Lindelöf
4E. Konsa
2M. Cash
24A. Onana
26L. Bogarde
19J. Sancho
10E. Buendía
29E. Guessand
17D. Malen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Basel 1893
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Aston Villa
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Basel 1893+0.3 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Aston Villa-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Basel 1893 · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Aston Villa · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| FC Basel 1893 | Aston Villa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.20 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| FC Basel 1893 | Aston Villa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.90 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 5 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Basel 1893 | Aston Villa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 3.25 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.25 | 8.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.60 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| FC Basel 1893 | Aston Villa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 3.56 | |
| Match total | 8.67 | 8.56 | 8.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.22 | 1.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.55 | 3.70 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 5/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Halil Umut Meler Türkiye · 23 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.52league 4.13
Red cards0.22league 0.19
Cards 5+52%league 42%
Fouls24.7league 24.7
Penalties0.30league 0.36
Home wins26%league 51%
FC Basel 1893No previous matches with this referee.
Aston VillaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Basel 18935 games · scored 7 · conceded 7
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Aston Villa5 games · scored 8 · conceded 3
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
FC Basel 18939 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Aston Villa10 games · scored 19 · conceded 10
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
6
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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