UEFA Europa League Matchday 4 Thu, Nov 6 · 17:45 St. Jakob-Park, Basel
FC Basel 1893 25th · 3 pts · 3 played
3–1Full time
FCSB 29th · 3 pts · 3 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

FC Basel 1893 were slight favourites.

FC Basel 1893 were the stronger side on L90 Strength (45 vs 34). FC Basel 1893 had 14 days of rest, FCSB 14 and had to travel 1,462 km.

Away travel1,462 kmRest days14 · 14Matches / 14d0 · 0
FC Basel 189350%
Draw25%
FCSB24%
Expected goals 1.68 – 1.10
FC Basel 189351%
Draw26%
FCSB24%
Expected goals 1.67 – 1.07
FC Basel 189351%
Draw26%
FCSB24%
Expected goals 1.66 – 1.06
FC Basel 189343%
Draw27%
FCSB31%
Expected goals 1.50 – 1.23
FC Basel 189350%
Draw25%
FCSB24%
Expected goals 1.69 – 1.10
Over 2.5 52% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Basel)

No weather data yet

Referee · AlbaniaJuxhin Xhaja
  • Cards per match 5.3
  • Penalties per match 0.38
  • Matches 16

Team strength

FC Basel 1893FCSB
45 L90 StrengthIn forecast 34
41 Current StrengthIn forecast 33
36 AttackIn forecast 36
42 DefenceIn forecast 33
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FC Basel 1893

Attack—
Defense risk—

FCSB

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FC Basel 1893FCSB
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.67
1.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33
1.42 xGVia Att/Def 0.61
1.67 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.25
-0.42 Goals minus xGContext +0.06
67% Scored inContext 67%
33% Clean sheetsContext 33%
12.00 ShotsContext 11.00
3.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
31% On target shareContext 46%
8.33 Shots in the boxContext 5.67
69% Box shareContext 58%
8% ConversionContext 6%
— OffsidesContext 1.00
20.67 Shots allowedContext 18.00
5.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.67
7.33 BlocksContext 2.67
4.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 6.67
82% Save rateContext 87%
43% PossessionIn forecast 41%
351 PassesContext 329
276 Accurate passesContext 257
79% Pass accuracyContext 78%
6.94 Team ratingContext 6.85
15.33 FoulsContext 13.67
10.33 Fouls sufferedContext 14.67
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 3.33
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
1.57 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
1.42 xGVia Att/Def 0.61
1.67 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.25
-0.42 Goals minus xGContext +0.89
71% Scored inContext 80%
14% Clean sheetsContext 20%
12.57 ShotsContext 10.40
4.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
34% On target shareContext 48%
7.43 Shots in the boxContext 5.67
60% Box shareContext 58%
8% ConversionContext 14%
1.67 OffsidesContext 1.00
16.14 Shots allowedContext 17.80
5.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.80
4.71 BlocksContext 5.25
4.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.40
73% Save rateContext 79%
49% PossessionIn forecast 48%
403 PassesContext 329
329 Accurate passesContext 257
82% Pass accuracyContext 78%
6.85 Team ratingContext 6.85
14.29 FoulsContext 12.20
15.71 Fouls sufferedContext 14.80
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.10
0.14 Red cardsContext 0.20
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 7 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FC Basel 1893
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
FCSB
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,462 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
FC Basel 1893 FCSB
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 23 Oct14UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 23 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,462 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 10 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one21.121.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FC Basel 1893 Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
1M. Hitz(G)
29M. Cissé 24F. Daniliuc 26A. Barišić 3N. Vouilloz
22L. Leroy 5A. Silu
19M. Šotiček 10X. Shaqiri 11B. Traoré
17M. Broschinski
+3 more reported missing outside this XI
FCSB Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
32Ș. Târnovanu(G)
33R. Radunović 4D. Graovac 30S. Ngezana 28A. Pantea
8A. Șut 10F. Tănase
93M. Thiam 27D. Olaru 11D. Miculescu
9G. Bîrligea
+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
FC Basel 1893 Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FCSB Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • FC Basel 1893-0.4 pp
  • Draw-0.2 pp
  • FCSB+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

FC Basel 1893 · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
0.00
FCSB · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
1.00
Conceded
0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

FC Basel 1893FCSBForecast
Scored per game 1.000.67
Conceded per game 1.331.33
Match goals 2.332.00 2.77
Over 1.5 100%67%
Over 2.5 33%33% 52%
Over 3.5 0%0%
Both teams scored 33%33% 55%
Clean sheets 33%33%
Failed to score 33%33%
Games33
FC Basel 1893FCSBForecast
Scored per game 1.000.67
Conceded per game 1.331.33
Match goals 2.332.00 2.77
Over 1.5 100%67%
Over 2.5 33%33% 52%
Over 3.5 0%0%
Both teams scored 33%33% 55%
Clean sheets 33%33%
Failed to score 33%33%
Games33

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

FC Basel 1893FCSBLeague
Corners
Corners won2.334.33
Corners conceded5.676.67
Match total8.0011.009.13
Over 8.533% 1/367% 2/3
Over 9.533% 1/367% 2/3
Over 10.50% 0/367% 2/3
Cards
Cards2.003.33
Opponent cards1.003.00
Match total3.006.334.20
Over 3.533% 1/3100% 3/3
Over 4.50% 0/367% 2/3
FC Basel 1893FCSBLeague
Corners
Corners won3.294.00
Corners conceded4.865.40
Match total8.159.409.13
Over 8.557% 4/740% 2/5
Over 9.529% 2/740% 2/5
Over 10.50% 0/740% 2/5
Cards
Cards2.432.30
Opponent cards1.863.00
Match total4.295.304.20
Over 3.557% 4/790% 9/10
Over 4.543% 3/760% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Juxhin Xhaja Albania · 16 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.94league 4.06
Red cards0.31league 0.15
Cards 5+63%league 39%
Fouls23.8league 24.9
Penalties0.38league 0.39
Home wins38%league 48%
FC Basel 1893

No previous matches with this referee.

FCSB2 with this referee
Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.4.0 · 3.5 Pens for · against0 · 0
  • D12 Dec 24A · 1899 Hoffenheim0–03
  • W3 Aug 23H · CSKA 19483–25

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

FC Basel 18933 games · scored 3 · conceded 4
1 1 0-15
16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
61-75
2 1 76-90
FCSB3 games · scored 2 · conceded 4
1 3 0-15
16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
61-75
76-90
FC Basel 18937 games · scored 7 · conceded 11
2 1 0-15
2 16-30
1 3 31-45
3 46-60
2 61-75
2 2 76-90
FCSB9 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
2 4 0-15
2 16-30
1 2 31-45
4 2 46-60
2 2 61-75
2 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

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