FC Midtjylland
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
FC Midtjylland51.1%fair odds 1.96
Draw25.1%fair odds 3.98
Sturm Graz23.7%fair odds 4.21
Expected goals1.71 – 1.10total 2.81
Likeliest score1–111.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Sturm Graz
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| FC Midtjylland ↓ · Sturm Graz → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.9 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are FC Midtjylland goals, columns Sturm Graz goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%8.39
- 1–09.7%10.30
- 2–19.7%10.32
- 2–08.8%11.33
- 0–06.6%15.11
- 1–26.2%16.10
- 0–16.0%16.64
- 3–15.5%18.09
- 2–25.3%18.80
- 3–05.0%19.86
Winning margin
12.4%
FC Midtjylland by 3+
fair 8.09
15.8%
FC Midtjylland by 2
fair 6.32
23.0%
FC Midtjylland by 1
fair 4.36
25.1%
Draw
fair 3.98
14.5%
Sturm Graz by 1
fair 6.89
6.5%
Sturm Graz by 2
fair 15.37
2.7%
Sturm Graz by 3+
fair 36.52
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
15%5+
FC Midtjylland goals
18%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
10%4+
Sturm Graz goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Midtjylland win | 51.1% | 51.0% | +0.1 pp |
| Draw | 25.1% | 25.5% | -0.4 pp |
| Sturm Graz win | 23.7% | 23.5% | +0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.3% | 51.7% | +1.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.2% | 53.9% | +1.3 pp |
| Expected goals FC Midtjylland | 1.71 | 1.68 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals Sturm Graz | 1.10 | 1.07 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- FC Midtjylland win51.1%1.96
- Draw25.1%3.98
- Sturm Graz win23.7%4.21
- Double chance FC Midtjylland or draw76.3%1.31
- Double chance FC Midtjylland or Sturm Graz74.9%1.34
- Double chance Sturm Graz or draw48.9%2.05
- Draw no bet FC Midtjylland68.3%1.46
- Draw no bet Sturm Graz31.7%3.15
Goals
- Over 0.593.4%1.07
- Over 1.577.7%1.29
- Over 2.553.3%1.88
- Over 3.531.0%3.22
- Over 4.515.4%6.50
- Under 1.522.3%4.48
- Under 2.546.7%2.14
- Under 3.569.0%1.45
Both teams to score
- Yes55.2%1.81
- No44.8%2.23
- Yes and over 2.543.3%2.31
- FC Midtjylland win and yes24.4%4.10
- Draw and yes18.5%5.41
- Sturm Graz win and yes12.3%8.12
Team goals
- FC Midtjylland over 0.582.0%1.22
- FC Midtjylland over 1.551.1%1.96
- FC Midtjylland over 2.524.6%4.07
- Sturm Graz over 0.566.6%1.50
- Sturm Graz over 1.530.0%3.33
- Sturm Graz over 2.59.9%10.08
- FC Midtjylland clean sheet33.4%3.00
- Sturm Graz clean sheet18.0%5.54
- FC Midtjylland win to nil26.7%3.74
- Sturm Graz win to nil11.4%8.75
Handicap
- FC Midtjylland −1.528.2%3.55
- FC Midtjylland −2.512.4%8.09
- Sturm Graz +1.571.8%1.39
- Sturm Graz +2.587.6%1.14
- Sturm Graz −1.59.2%10.81
- FC Midtjylland +1.590.8%1.10
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
No finished matches with a forecast in this competition yet.