FC Midtjylland vs Sturm Graz – 24 Sep 2025

UEFA Europa League Matchday 1 Wed, Sep 24 · 17:45 MCH Arena, Herning

FC Midtjylland

2–0Full time

Sturm Graz

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

FC Midtjylland were slight favourites.

FC Midtjylland were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 32). FC Midtjylland had ? days of rest, Sturm Graz ? and had to travel 1,102 km.

Away travel1,102 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0

FC Midtjylland51%

Draw25%

Sturm Graz24%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.10

FC Midtjylland51%

Draw25%

Sturm Graz24%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.07

FC Midtjylland51%

Draw25%

Sturm Graz24%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.10

FC Midtjylland44%

Draw26%

Sturm Graz30%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.23

FC Midtjylland51%

Draw25%

Sturm Graz24%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.07

Over 2.5 53% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Herning)

No weather data yet

RefereeOrel Grinfeeld

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.31
Matches 16

Team strength

FC Midtjylland

Sturm Graz

43 L90 StrengthIn forecast 32

47 Current StrengthIn forecast 38

37 AttackIn forecast 32

42 DefenceIn forecast 37

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FC Midtjylland

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sturm Graz

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FC Midtjylland

Sturm Graz

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

90% Scored inContext 70%

50% Clean sheetsContext 40%

16.25 ShotsContext 14.50

7.38 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

45% On target shareContext 35%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.50

60% Box shareContext 59%

15% ConversionContext 10%

1.80 OffsidesContext 1.71

11.25 Shots allowedContext 14.00

5.29 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

3.00 BlocksContext 3.30

4.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30

81% Save rateContext 69%

49% PossessionIn forecast 50%

420 PassesContext 394

352 Accurate passesContext 310

84% Pass accuracyContext 79%

7.07 Team ratingContext 6.91

11.13 FoulsContext 12.60

11.38 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FC Midtjylland

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Sturm Graz

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel1,102 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FC Midtjylland	Sturm Graz
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,102 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	8.1	8.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FC Midtjylland Confirmed XI

4-3-1-2

16E. Ólafsson(G)

22M. Bech 3H. Lee 4O. Diao 43M. Mbabu

21D. Castillo 19P. Bravo 8P. Billing

10G. Cho

7F. Gluda Djú 74Júnior Brumado

Sturm Graz Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1O. Christensen(G)

17E. Karić 24D. Lavalée 47E. Aiwu 5T. Oermann

21T. Chukwuani 4J. Gorenc Stankovič

8F. Rózga 20S. Jatta 19T. Horvat

77M. Malone

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FC Midtjylland Absences are shown before kick-off

Sturm Graz Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

FC Midtjylland+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Sturm Graz+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

FC Midtjylland · Home No home games yet this season.

Sturm Graz · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	FC Midtjylland	Sturm Graz	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.81
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	53%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	55%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	FC Midtjylland	Sturm Graz	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.81
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	53%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	55%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FC Midtjylland	Sturm Graz
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	FC Midtjylland	Sturm Graz
Corners
Corners won	4.75	3.89
Corners conceded	3.25	6.67
Match total	8.00	10.56
Over 8.5	38% 3/8	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	25% 2/8	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	13% 1/8	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.80
Opponent cards	1.20	2.30
Match total	3.20	4.10
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Orel Grinfeeld 16 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.19

Red cards0.31

Cards 5+44%

Fouls25.6

Penalties0.31

Home wins56%

FC Midtjylland2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.2.5 · 4.5 Pens for · against0 · 1

L13 Feb 25H · Real Sociedad1–23
D13 Aug 24A · Ferencvarosi TC1–12

Sturm Graz

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.