FC Porto vs Benfica – 5 Oct 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 8 Sun, Oct 5 · 21:15 Estádio Do Dragão, Porto

FC Porto 1st · 21 pts · 7 played WWWWW

0–0Full time

Benfica 3rd · 17 pts · 7 played WDWDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. FC Porto had 3.1 days of rest, Benfica 9 and had to travel 273 km.

Away travel273 kmRest days3.1 · 9Matches / 14d3 · 2

FC Porto40%

Draw27%

Benfica33%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.24

FC Porto40%

Draw27%

Benfica33%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.26

FC Porto40%

Draw27%

Benfica33%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.24

FC Porto33%

Draw27%

Benfica40%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.40

FC Porto40%

Draw27%

Benfica33%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.26

Over 2.5 50% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Porto)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalMiguel Nogueira

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 53

Team strength

FC Porto

Benfica

74 L90 StrengthIn forecast 78

80 Current StrengthIn forecast 82

74 AttackIn forecast 81

80 DefenceIn forecast 81

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FC Porto

Attack—

Defense risk—

Benfica

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FC Porto

Benfica

2.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.86

0.14 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.57

2.08 xGVia Att/Def 1.90

0.49 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.88

+0.63 Goals minus xGContext -0.04

100% Scored inContext 100%

86% Clean sheetsContext 43%

15.86 ShotsContext 14.43

6.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.43

39% On target shareContext 38%

10.71 Shots in the boxContext 9.43

67% Box shareContext 64%

17% ConversionContext 13%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.80

9.71 Shots allowedContext 10.14

1.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.57 BlocksContext 2.14

1.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.57

91% Save rateContext 89%

56% PossessionIn forecast 62%

443 PassesContext 507

381 Accurate passesContext 438

86% Pass accuracyContext 86%

7.09 Team ratingContext 7.07

13.43 FoulsContext 14.14

10.14 Fouls sufferedContext 14.00

2.57 Yellow cardsContext 2.57

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

0.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

2.02 xGVia Att/Def 1.63

0.64 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.92

+0.48 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

100% Scored inContext 80%

80% Clean sheetsContext 40%

15.30 ShotsContext 13.50

5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

35% On target shareContext 36%

10.20 Shots in the boxContext 8.50

66% Box shareContext 61%

16% ConversionContext 11%

1.89 OffsidesContext 2.14

10.10 Shots allowedContext 9.30

2.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.44

3.30 BlocksContext 2.00

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.78

86% Save rateContext 85%

56% PossessionIn forecast 57%

447 PassesContext 487

385 Accurate passesContext 417

86% Pass accuracyContext 86%

7.08 Team ratingContext 7.00

12.30 FoulsContext 13.10

10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 14.10

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FC Porto

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km3,791 km in 14d

Schedule load33%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Benfica

Rest9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel273 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FC Porto	Benfica
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 33	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 2 Oct	9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 26 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	273 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,791 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 5	0 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	17.9	20

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FC Porto Confirmed XI

4-3-3

99Diogo Costa(G)

74Francisco Moura 4J. Kiwior 5J. Bednarek 20Alberto Baio

10Gabri Veiga 22A. Varela 8V. Froholdt

17Borja Sainz 9Samu Omorodion 11Pepê

Benfica Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Trubin(G)

26S. Dahl 30N. Otamendi 4António Silva 17A. Dedić

5E. Barrenechea 20Richard Ríos

8F. Aursnes 10H. Sudakov 11D. Lukébakio

14V. Pavlidis

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FC Porto Absences are shown before kick-off

Benfica Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

FC Porto+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Benfica+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

FC Porto · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 3-0-0
Scored: 2.67
Conceded: 0.00

Benfica · Away 3.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 3-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	FC Porto	Benfica
Rio Ave	W 3–0 A	D 1–1 H
GIL Vicente	W 2–0 A	W 2–1 H
Points	6 of 6 · 3.00 per game	4 of 6 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 FC Porto wins0 draws4 Benfica wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.83 Over 2.567% Both scored50% Clean sheets17% · 33%

6 Apr 2025FC Porto1–4Benfica
10 Nov 2024Benfica4–1FC Porto
3 Mar 2024FC Porto5–0Benfica
29 Sep 2023Benfica1–0FC Porto
7 Apr 2023Benfica1–2FC Porto
21 Oct 2022FC Porto0–1Benfica

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	FC Porto	Benfica	Forecast
Scored per game	2.71	1.86
Conceded per game	0.14	0.57
Match goals	2.86	2.43	2.66
Over 1.5	86%	86%
Over 2.5	71%	57%	50%
Over 3.5	29%	0%
Both teams scored	14%	57%	54%
Clean sheets	86%	43%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	7	7

	FC Porto	Benfica	Forecast
Scored per game	2.44	1.86
Conceded per game	0.22	0.57
Match goals	2.67	2.43	2.66
Over 1.5	78%	86%
Over 2.5	67%	57%	50%
Over 3.5	22%	0%
Both teams scored	22%	57%	54%
Clean sheets	78%	43%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	9	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FC Porto	Benfica	League
Corners
Corners won	6.43	5.67
Corners conceded	3.29	3.50
Match total	9.72	9.17	9.37
Over 8.5	71% 5/7	67% 4/6
Over 9.5	57% 4/7	33% 2/6
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	33% 2/6
Cards
Cards	2.71	2.71
Opponent cards	2.86	2.57
Match total	5.57	5.28	5.40
Over 3.5	86% 6/7	71% 5/7
Over 4.5	57% 4/7	57% 4/7

	FC Porto	Benfica	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	5.67
Corners conceded	3.60	3.00
Match total	9.60	8.67	9.37
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.80
Opponent cards	3.30	2.70
Match total	5.70	5.50	5.40
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Miguel Nogueira Portugal · 53 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.09league 5.21

Red cards0.26league 0.28

Cards 5+47%league 66%

Fouls25.5league 27.8

Penalties0.21league 0.44

Home wins43%league 37%

FC Porto5 with this referee

Record4-1-0 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.6 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

W18 Apr 25H · Famalicao2–13
W16 Dec 24H · Estrela2–00
W28 Oct 24A · AVS5–01
D3 Sep 23H · Arouca1–13
W2 Apr 23H · Portimonense1–02

Benfica6 with this referee

Record4-2-0 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.5 Pens for · against1 · 1

D17 May 25A · SC Braga1–12
W28 Mar 25A · GIL Vicente3–02
W7 Dec 24H · Guimaraes1–03
W28 Sep 24H · GIL Vicente5–11
W25 Feb 24H · Portimonense4–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.