FC Porto
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FC Porto were clear favourites.
FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 29). FC Porto usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. FC Porto had 5.9 days of rest, Casa Pia 9.1 and had to travel.
Rest days5.9 · 9.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
FC Porto67%
Draw20%
Casa Pia13%
FC Porto67%
Draw20%
Casa Pia13%
FC Porto67%
Draw20%
Casa Pia12%
FC Porto60%
Draw23%
Casa Pia17%
FC Porto67%
Draw20%
Casa Pia13%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Porto)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalSergio Guelho
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 10
Team strength
FC Porto
Casa Pia
66
L90 StrengthIn forecast
29
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
74
AttackIn forecast
13
80
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCasa Pia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC PortoCasa Pia
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.81
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
0.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.11
+0.69
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
100%
Scored inContext
50%
100%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
16.00
ShotsContext
8.50
6.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
41%
On target shareContext
41%
10.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
66%
Box shareContext
56%
16%
ConversionContext
12%
1.50
OffsidesContext
—
11.00
Shots allowedContext
17.50
2.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.50
3.50
BlocksContext
4.50
1.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
75%
Save rateContext
69%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
424
PassesContext
275
365
Accurate passesContext
202
86%
Pass accuracyContext
73%
7.07
Team ratingContext
6.78
18.50
FoulsContext
16.50
8.50
Fouls sufferedContext
15.50
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
4.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
0.77
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
+0.59
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
90%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.00
ShotsContext
6.30
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
38%
On target shareContext
38%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
4.25
65%
Box shareContext
60%
15%
ConversionContext
14%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.33
9.10
Shots allowedContext
14.10
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.63
BlocksContext
3.60
2.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
65%
Save rateContext
71%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
482
PassesContext
334
417
Accurate passesContext
258
87%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
7.04
Team ratingContext
6.84
15.70
FoulsContext
15.40
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.60
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
3.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Porto
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km85 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Casa Pia
Rest9.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Porto |
Casa Pia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 18 Aug | 9.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 15 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 85 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
FC Porto
Confirmed XI
99Diogo Costa(G)
12Z. Sanusi
5J. Bednarek
18P. Pérez
20Alberto Baio
10Gabri Veiga
22A. Varela
8V. Froholdt
17Borja Sainz
26L. de Jong
7William Gomes
Casa Pia
Confirmed XI
1P. Sequeira(G)
2D. Tchamba
6José Fonte
4João Goulart
12F. Benaissa-Yahia
74Renato Nhaga
24I. Mohamed
72Gaizka Larrazabal
13Oluwakorede Osundina
29J. Livolant
90Cassiano
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Porto
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Casa Pia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Porto-0.4 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Casa Pia+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Porto · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Casa Pia · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
5 FC Porto wins1 draws0 Casa Pia wins
Goals per game1.67 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 17%
- 12 Apr 2025Casa Pia0–1FC Porto
- 2 Dec 2024FC Porto2–0Casa Pia
- 21 Apr 2024Casa Pia1–2FC Porto
- 9 Dec 2023FC Porto3–1Casa Pia
- 14 May 2023FC Porto2–1Casa Pia
- 7 Jan 2023Casa Pia0–0FC Porto
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Porto | Casa Pia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.00 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| FC Porto | Casa Pia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.00 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Porto | Casa Pia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 2.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.50 | 8.00 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 10.00 | 9.47 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 4.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 6.50 | 4.79 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| FC Porto | Casa Pia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.44 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 6.63 | |
| Match total | 9.44 | 10.38 | 9.47 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 3.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.40 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.70 | 5.80 | 4.79 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 10/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sergio Guelho Portugal · 10 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 4.91
Red cards0.00league 0.14
Cards 5+30%league 59%
Fouls26.8league 28.3
Penalties0.00league 0.32
Home wins50%league 41%
FC PortoNo previous matches with this referee.
Casa Pia1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L16 Mar 25A · Nacional1–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Porto2 games · scored 5 · conceded 0
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Casa Pia2 games · scored 2 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 19 · conceded 10
3
2
0-15
4
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
Casa Pia10 games · scored 9 · conceded 11
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
