FC Porto
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FC Porto were clear favourites.
FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 40). FC Porto had 13 days of rest, Famalicao 14.2 and had to travel 30 km.
Away travel30 kmRest days13 · 14.2Matches / 14d1 · 0
FC Porto67%
Draw21%
Famalicao11%
FC Porto71%
Draw18%
Famalicao11%
FC Porto67%
Draw21%
Famalicao11%
FC Porto61%
Draw24%
Famalicao15%
FC Porto68%
Draw21%
Famalicao11%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 42%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Porto)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalSergio Guelho
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.10
- Matches 20
Team strength
FC Porto
Famalicao
81
L90 StrengthIn forecast
40
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
74
AttackIn forecast
24
80
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFamalicao
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC PortoFamalicao
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.22
0.41
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.81
1.78
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
0.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.98
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
96%
Scored inContext
70%
67%
Clean sheetsContext
52%
14.04
ShotsContext
12.04
5.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.28
38%
On target shareContext
33%
9.37
Shots in the boxContext
8.12
66%
Box shareContext
64%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
2.20
OffsidesContext
1.71
9.04
Shots allowedContext
10.85
2.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.04
3.42
BlocksContext
2.65
2.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
89%
Save rateContext
82%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
444
PassesContext
390
377
Accurate passesContext
319
85%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.94
13.33
FoulsContext
16.04
12.04
Fouls sufferedContext
16.41
2.22
Yellow cardsContext
2.41
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.55
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
0.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.92
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
100%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
13.00
ShotsContext
10.60
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.11
37%
On target shareContext
35%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
61%
Box shareContext
58%
14%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.57
9.60
Shots allowedContext
11.00
2.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.25
BlocksContext
2.90
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
85%
Save rateContext
82%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
398
PassesContext
407
330
Accurate passesContext
338
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.94
12.10
FoulsContext
12.80
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
17.30
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Porto
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km95 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Famalicao
Rest14.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel30 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Porto |
Famalicao |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 22 Mar | 14.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 21 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 30 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 95 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 5 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Porto
Confirmed XI
99Diogo Costa(G)
12Z. Sanusi
4J. Kiwior
5J. Bednarek
20Alberto Baio
86Rodrigo Mora
22A. Varela
8V. Froholdt
77O. Pietuszewski
29T. Moffi
11Pepê
Famalicao
Confirmed XI
25L. Carević(G)
5Rafa Soares
16J. de Haas
55I. Ba
17Rodrigo Pinheiro
14M. De Amorim
6T. van de Looi
7Sorriso
20Gustavo Sá
23Gil Dias
12S. Elisor
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Porto
Absences are shown before kick-off
Famalicao
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Porto+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Famalicao+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Porto · Home
2.69points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 11-2-0
- Scored
- 2.08
- Conceded
- 0.31
Famalicao · Away
1.46points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-4
- Scored
- 0.77
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | FC Porto | Famalicao |
|---|---|---|
| SC Braga | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Moreirense | W 3–0 HW 2–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Benfica | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Arouca | W 3–1 HW 4–0 A | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Rio Ave | W 1–0 HW 3–0 A | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Nacional | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Sporting CP | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Casa Pia | L 1–2 AW 4–0 H | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| GIL Vicente | W 3–0 HW 2–0 A | L 0–5 AD 0–0 H |
| Guimaraes | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Santa Clara | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H |
| AVS | W 2–0 H | W 3–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Alverca | W 3–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Estrela | W 3–1 H | L 2–3 H |
| Tondela | W 2–0 A | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Estoril | W 1–0 H | W 4–0 H |
| Points | 69 of 78 · 2.65 per game | 45 of 78 · 1.73 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
5 FC Porto wins2 draws0 Famalicao wins
Goals per game2.43 – 1.00
Over 2.571%
Both scored71%
Clean sheets29% · 0%
- 9 Nov 2025Famalicao0–1FC Porto
- 18 Apr 2025FC Porto2–1Famalicao
- 7 Dec 2024Famalicao1–1FC Porto
- 13 Apr 2024FC Porto2–2Famalicao
- 2 Dec 2023Famalicao0–3FC Porto
- 20 May 2023Famalicao2–4FC Porto
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Porto | Famalicao | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.41 | 0.81 | |
| Match goals | 2.41 | 2.04 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 52% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 37% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 30% | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 52% | |
| Failed to score | 4% | 30% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| FC Porto | Famalicao | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.10 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Porto | Famalicao | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.13 | 4.93 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.33 | 4.96 | |
| Match total | 8.46 | 9.89 | 9.24 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 12/24 | 63% 17/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 8/24 | 48% 13/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 21% 5/24 | 44% 12/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.48 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.93 | 2.19 | |
| Match total | 5.23 | 4.67 | 5.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 78% 21/27 | 67% 18/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 59% 16/27 | 52% 14/27 | |
| FC Porto | Famalicao | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 8.66 | 9.50 | 9.24 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.30 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 5.90 | 3.70 | 5.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sergio Guelho Portugal · 20 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.25league 4.80
Red cards0.00league 0.26
Cards 5+35%league 57%
Fouls26.5league 26.9
Penalties0.10league 0.44
Home wins55%league 41%
FC Porto1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W24 Aug 25H · Casa Pia4–03
Famalicao1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W26 Oct 25H · Guimaraes2–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Porto27 games · scored 54 · conceded 11
8
1
0-15
7
1
16-30
8
1
31-45
11
3
46-60
9
3
61-75
11
2
76-90
Famalicao27 games · scored 33 · conceded 22
3
1
0-15
6
4
16-30
5
3
31-45
6
5
46-60
7
2
61-75
6
7
76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 18 · conceded 8
3
1
0-15
5
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
Famalicao10 games · scored 13 · conceded 8
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
5
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
