FC Porto
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FC Porto were clear favourites.
FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 33). FC Porto had 4.1 days of rest, GIL Vicente 9.2 and had to travel 43 km.
Away travel43 kmRest days4.1 · 9.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
FC Porto72%
Draw18%
GIL Vicente10%
FC Porto72%
Draw18%
GIL Vicente10%
FC Porto72%
Draw18%
GIL Vicente10%
FC Porto65%
Draw21%
GIL Vicente14%
FC Porto72%
Draw18%
GIL Vicente10%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Porto)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalAntonio Nobre
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 72
Team strength
FC Porto
GIL Vicente
77
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
74
AttackIn forecast
32
80
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGIL Vicente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC PortoGIL Vicente
2.06
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
0.22
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.72
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
0.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.98
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
94%
Scored inContext
78%
78%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
14.33
ShotsContext
13.89
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.39
38%
On target shareContext
32%
9.94
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
68%
Box shareContext
56%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.85
9.50
Shots allowedContext
10.06
2.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.76
3.67
BlocksContext
2.38
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.19
93%
Save rateContext
81%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
454
PassesContext
349
387
Accurate passesContext
278
85%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.81
13.44
FoulsContext
13.89
11.94
Fouls sufferedContext
14.61
2.22
Yellow cardsContext
2.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
0.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.02
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
100%
Scored inContext
80%
70%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.10
ShotsContext
13.60
5.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
42%
On target shareContext
29%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
70%
Box shareContext
53%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.86
9.80
Shots allowedContext
8.90
2.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
3.50
BlocksContext
2.14
2.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
94%
Save rateContext
79%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
491
PassesContext
361
423
Accurate passesContext
292
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.76
12.90
FoulsContext
13.20
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
14.80
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Porto
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km3,971 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
GIL Vicente
Rest9.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel43 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Porto |
GIL Vicente |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan | 9.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 17 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 43 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,971 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 5.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Porto
Confirmed XI
99Diogo Costa(G)
4J. Kiwior
5J. Bednarek
3Thiago Silva
52Martim Fernandes
10Gabri Veiga
13P. Rosario
8V. Froholdt
17Borja Sainz
9Samu Omorodion
11Pepê
GIL Vicente
Confirmed XI
99Daniel Figueira(G)
3G. Konan
39Jonathan Buatu
4M. Elimbi
2Zé Carlos
6Zé Carlos
95Santi García
7T. Touré
10Luís Esteves
77Murilo
89Gustavo Varela
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Porto
Absences are shown before kick-off
GIL Vicente
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Porto+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Porto · Home
2.75points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.25
GIL Vicente · Away
1.56points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | FC Porto | GIL Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Santa Clara | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| AVS | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Alverca | W 3–0 A | W 4–0 A |
| Estrela | W 3–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Tondela | W 2–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Estoril | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Famalicao | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| SC Braga | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Moreirense | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Benfica | D 0–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Arouca | W 4–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Rio Ave | W 3–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Nacional | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Sporting CP | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Casa Pia | W 4–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 49 of 51 · 2.88 per game | 31 of 51 · 1.82 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
4 FC Porto wins1 draws2 GIL Vicente wins
Goals per game1.71 – 1.00
Over 2.557%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets43% · 0%
- 18 Aug 2025GIL Vicente0–2FC Porto
- 19 Jan 2025GIL Vicente3–1FC Porto
- 10 Aug 2024FC Porto3–0GIL Vicente
- 25 Feb 2024GIL Vicente1–1FC Porto
- 23 Sep 2023FC Porto2–1GIL Vicente
- 26 Feb 2023FC Porto1–2GIL Vicente
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Porto | GIL Vicente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.06 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.22 | 0.72 | |
| Match goals | 2.28 | 2.06 | 3.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 72% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 28% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 22% | 39% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 78% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 6% | 22% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| FC Porto | GIL Vicente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.30 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.30 | 3.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Porto | GIL Vicente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.94 | 6.27 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.13 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 8.07 | 10.60 | 9.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 7/16 | 67% 10/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 4/16 | 67% 10/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 19% 3/16 | 67% 10/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.28 | 2.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.78 | 2.94 | |
| Match total | 5.06 | 5.77 | 5.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 78% 14/18 | 83% 15/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 10/18 | 67% 12/18 | |
| FC Porto | GIL Vicente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.14 | 6.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.14 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 7.28 | 10.22 | 9.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 29% 2/7 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/7 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/7 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 6.00 | 5.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Antonio Nobre Portugal · 72 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.99league 4.98
Red cards0.43league 0.29
Cards 5+56%league 59%
Fouls27.8league 27.2
Penalties0.33league 0.46
Home wins60%league 39%
FC Porto7 with this referee
Record4-2-1
Cards · opp.3.4 · 3.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds4
- W11 Aug 25H · Guimaraes3–01
- D24 Feb 25H · Guimaraes1–12
- L30 Mar 24A · Estoril0–110
- D3 Feb 24H · Rio Ave0–04
- W2 Dec 23A · Famalicao3–05
GIL Vicente3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W29 Aug 25H · Moreirense2–01
- L9 Feb 25A · SC Braga0–21
- L23 Sep 23A · FC Porto1–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Porto18 games · scored 37 · conceded 4
5
0-15
5
1
16-30
6
31-45
9
2
46-60
7
1
61-75
5
76-90
GIL Vicente18 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
5
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
9
3
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 19 · conceded 3
2
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
5
1
46-60
5
61-75
2
1
76-90
GIL Vicente10 games · scored 14 · conceded 9
3
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
