FC Porto vs Guimaraes – 11 Aug 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 1 Mon, Aug 11 · 20:45 Estádio Do Dragão, Porto

FC Porto

3–0Full time

Guimaraes

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

FC Porto were slight favourites.

FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 47). FC Porto had ? days of rest, Guimaraes ? and had to travel 42 km.

Away travel42 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0

FC Porto55%

Draw24%

Guimaraes21%

Expected goals 1.78 – 1.02

FC Porto54%

Draw25%

Guimaraes21%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.02

FC Porto54%

Draw25%

Guimaraes21%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.02

FC Porto47%

Draw26%

Guimaraes27%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.15

FC Porto54%

Draw25%

Guimaraes21%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.02

Over 2.5 53% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Porto)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalAntonio Nobre

Cards per match 5.5
Penalties per match 0.34
Matches 61

Team strength

FC Porto

Guimaraes

64 L90 StrengthIn forecast 47

80 Current StrengthIn forecast 27

74 AttackIn forecast 28

80 DefenceIn forecast 39

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FC Porto

Attack—

Defense risk—

Guimaraes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FC Porto

Guimaraes

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.01

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.08

+0.41 Goals minus xGContext +0.29

80% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

12.50 ShotsContext 11.90

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.78

39% On target shareContext 29%

8.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.10

67% Box shareContext 67%

13% ConversionContext 11%

1.70 OffsidesContext 1.86

8.40 Shots allowedContext 10.60

3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

2.14 BlocksContext 1.67

2.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

67% Save rateContext 64%

61% PossessionIn forecast 57%

512 PassesContext 477

444 Accurate passesContext 402

87% Pass accuracyContext 84%

7.06 Team ratingContext 6.92

15.30 FoulsContext 14.50

13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 12.90

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FC Porto

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Guimaraes

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel42 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FC Porto	Guimaraes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	42 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	7	4.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FC Porto Confirmed XI

4-3-3

99Diogo Costa(G)

52Martim Fernandes 5J. Bednarek 18P. Pérez 20Alberto Baio

10Gabri Veiga 22A. Varela 8V. Froholdt

17Borja Sainz 9Samu Omorodion 11Pepê

Guimaraes Confirmed XI

3-4-3

27Charles(G)

3M. Nóbrega 24T. Borevković 2Miguel Maga

13J. Teixeira Mendes 8Tomás Händel 10Tiago Silva 21Vando Felix

19O. Camara 11Gustavo Silva 77Nuno Santos

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FC Porto Absences are shown before kick-off

Guimaraes Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

FC Porto+0.5 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Guimaraes-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

FC Porto · Home No home games yet this season.

Guimaraes · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

4 FC Porto wins1 draws1 Guimaraes wins

Goals per game1.83 – 0.67 Over 2.567% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

24 Feb 2025FC Porto1–1Guimaraes
21 Sep 2024Guimaraes0–3FC Porto
7 Apr 2024FC Porto1–2Guimaraes
11 Nov 2023Guimaraes1–2FC Porto
27 May 2023FC Porto3–0Guimaraes
21 Jan 2023Guimaraes0–1FC Porto

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	FC Porto	Guimaraes	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.81
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	53%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	54%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	FC Porto	Guimaraes	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.81
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	53%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	54%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FC Porto	Guimaraes	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	9.43
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.86
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	FC Porto	Guimaraes	League
Corners
Corners won	4.89	6.20
Corners conceded	4.56	3.30
Match total	9.45	9.50	9.43
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.90
Opponent cards	3.60	2.30
Match total	6.10	5.20	4.86
Over 3.5	100% 10/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Antonio Nobre Portugal · 61 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.05league 4.86

Red cards0.43league 0.00

Cards 5+56%league 57%

Fouls28.1league 26.7

Penalties0.34league 0.29

Home wins61%league 57%

FC Porto6 with this referee

Record3-2-1 Cards · opp.3.8 · 3.8 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds4

D24 Feb 25H · Guimaraes1–12
L30 Mar 24A · Estoril0–110
D3 Feb 24H · Rio Ave0–04
W2 Dec 23A · Famalicao3–05
W23 Sep 23H · GIL Vicente2–11

Guimaraes9 with this referee

Record4-4-1 Cards · opp.3.2 · 3.3 Pens for · against3 · 1 Reds1

W16 Mar 25H · Estrela2–01
D24 Feb 25A · FC Porto1–12
D16 Dec 24A · Rio Ave2–21
D27 Oct 24A · Estrela2–23
D17 Feb 24A · Portimonense1–15

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.