FC Porto vs Rio Ave – 22 Feb 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 23 Sun, Feb 22 · 20:30 Estádio Do Dragão, Porto

FC Porto 1st · 59 pts · 22 played WWLDW

1–0Full time

Rio Ave 15th · 20 pts · 22 played LLLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

FC Porto were clear favourites.

FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 19). FC Porto had 7.2 days of rest, Rio Ave 6 and had to travel 25 km.

Away travel25 kmRest days7.2 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 1

FC Porto77%

Draw16%

Rio Ave7%

Expected goals 2.38 – 0.57

FC Porto80%

Draw14%

Rio Ave6%

Expected goals 2.71 – 0.66

FC Porto77%

Draw16%

Rio Ave7%

Expected goals 2.38 – 0.57

FC Porto71%

Draw19%

Rio Ave9%

Expected goals 2.12 – 0.64

FC Porto78%

Draw16%

Rio Ave7%

Expected goals 2.44 – 0.59

Over 2.5 57% Both score 40% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Porto)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalDavid Rafael Oliveira da Silva

Cards per match 6.8
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 12

Team strength

FC Porto

Rio Ave

77 L90 StrengthIn forecast 19

80 Current StrengthIn forecast 21

74 AttackIn forecast 18

80 DefenceIn forecast 21

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FC Porto

Attack—

Defense risk—

Rio Ave

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FC Porto

Rio Ave

1.95 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.05

0.32 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.95

1.73 xGVia Att/Def 0.89

0.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.64

+0.22 Goals minus xGContext +0.16

95% Scored inContext 59%

73% Clean sheetsContext 9%

13.73 ShotsContext 9.09

5.32 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.21

39% On target shareContext 40%

9.45 Shots in the boxContext 5.95

67% Box shareContext 61%

14% ConversionContext 12%

2.30 OffsidesContext 2.67

9.32 Shots allowedContext 16.18

2.16 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.55

3.50 BlocksContext 4.32

2.06 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.71

90% Save rateContext 65%

56% PossessionIn forecast 46%

450 PassesContext 378

383 Accurate passesContext 314

85% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.98 Team ratingContext 6.80

13.18 FoulsContext 12.59

11.86 Fouls sufferedContext 15.23

2.09 Yellow cardsContext 2.18

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 22 and 22 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30

1.62 xGVia Att/Def 0.79

0.61 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.72

+0.08 Goals minus xGContext +0.01

100% Scored inContext 40%

60% Clean sheetsContext 0%

12.60 ShotsContext 9.10

4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.38

37% On target shareContext 39%

8.10 Shots in the boxContext 6.11

63% Box shareContext 61%

14% ConversionContext 9%

2.56 OffsidesContext 3.33

9.40 Shots allowedContext 15.80

2.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.70

3.30 BlocksContext 4.00

2.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.67

83% Save rateContext 60%

57% PossessionIn forecast 49%

431 PassesContext 390

366 Accurate passesContext 329

85% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.73

13.10 FoulsContext 11.40

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 15.90

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FC Porto

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km2,390 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Rio Ave

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel25 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FC Porto	Rio Ave
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 15 Feb	6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 16 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	25 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,390 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 5	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4.9	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FC Porto Confirmed XI

4-3-3

99Diogo Costa(G)

12Z. Sanusi 13P. Rosario 5J. Bednarek 20Alberto Baio

10Gabri Veiga 22A. Varela 8V. Froholdt

77O. Pietuszewski 27D. Gül 11Pepê

Rio Ave Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

99E. van der Gouw(G)

77O. Richards 39Gustavo Mancha 32J. Brabec 17M. Vrousai

5A. Ntoi 44T. Nikitscher

18D. Špikić 80O. Pohlmann 7Diogo Bezerra

11Jalen Blesa

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FC Porto Absences are shown before kick-off

Rio Ave Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

FC Porto+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Rio Ave+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

FC Porto · Home 2.60points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 8-2-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.30

Rio Ave · Away 1.00points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 2-5-4
Scored: 1.09
Conceded: 2.09

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	FC Porto	Rio Ave
Nacional	W 1–0 AW 1–0 H	L 0–4 AD 1–1 H
Sporting CP	D 1–1 HW 2–1 A	L 0–4 A
Casa Pia	L 1–2 AW 4–0 H	W 3–1 H
GIL Vicente	W 3–0 HW 2–0 A	D 2–2 A
Guimaraes	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H	L 0–1 H
Santa Clara	W 1–0 A	D 1–1 H
AVS	W 2–0 H	W 2–1 A
Alverca	W 3–0 A	D 1–1 A
Estrela	W 3–1 H	W 2–1 A
Tondela	W 2–0 A	W 3–0 H
Estoril	W 1–0 H	L 0–4 H
Famalicao	W 1–0 A	D 0–0 A
SC Braga	W 2–1 H	L 0–3 AD 2–2 H
Moreirense	W 2–1 A	L 1–2 HL 1–3 A
Benfica	D 0–0 H	L 0–2 HD 1–1 A
Arouca	W 4–0 A	L 0–3 HD 3–3 A
Points	56 of 63 · 2.67 per game	20 of 63 · 0.95 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

4 FC Porto wins2 draws1 Rio Ave wins

Goals per game1.57 – 0.86 Over 2.557% Both scored43% Clean sheets57% · 14%

19 Sep 2025Rio Ave0–3FC Porto
3 Feb 2025Rio Ave2–2FC Porto
24 Aug 2024FC Porto2–0Rio Ave
3 Feb 2024FC Porto0–0Rio Ave
28 Aug 2023Rio Ave1–2FC Porto
18 Feb 2023FC Porto1–0Rio Ave

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	FC Porto	Rio Ave	Forecast
Scored per game	1.95	1.05
Conceded per game	0.32	1.95
Match goals	2.27	3.00	2.95
Over 1.5	68%	91%
Over 2.5	50%	68%	57%
Over 3.5	14%	36%
Both teams scored	27%	55%	40%
Clean sheets	73%	9%
Failed to score	5%	41%
Games	22	22

	FC Porto	Rio Ave	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	0.80
Conceded per game	0.50	2.30
Match goals	2.20	3.10	2.95
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	80%	57%
Over 3.5	10%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	40%	40%
Clean sheets	60%	0%
Failed to score	0%	60%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FC Porto	Rio Ave	League
Corners
Corners won	5.21	3.90
Corners conceded	3.47	6.71
Match total	8.68	10.61	9.18
Over 8.5	53% 10/19	76% 16/21
Over 9.5	32% 6/19	62% 13/21
Over 10.5	26% 5/19	52% 11/21
Cards
Cards	2.18	2.36
Opponent cards	2.95	2.55
Match total	5.13	4.91	5.20
Over 3.5	82% 18/22	59% 13/22
Over 4.5	59% 13/22	50% 11/22

	FC Porto	Rio Ave	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	4.60
Corners conceded	4.13	6.10
Match total	9.13	10.70	9.18
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	25% 2/8	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.10
Opponent cards	2.70	2.50
Match total	4.50	4.60	5.20
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · David Rafael Oliveira da Silva Portugal · 12 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards6.42league 4.87

Red cards0.33league 0.28

Cards 5+92%league 59%

Fouls29.3league 26.9

Penalties0.33league 0.44

Home wins50%league 42%

FC Porto1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 5.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

L26 Apr 25A · Estrela0–23

Rio Ave

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.