FC Porto
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FC Porto were clear favourites.
FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 16). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for FC Porto. FC Porto had 3 days of rest, Tondela 6 and had to travel 83 km.
Away travel83 kmRest days3 · 6Matches / 14d3 · 1
FC Porto82%
Draw13%
Tondela5%
FC Porto84%
Draw11%
Tondela5%
FC Porto82%
Draw13%
Tondela5%
FC Porto77%
Draw16%
Tondela7%
FC Porto83%
Draw12%
Tondela5%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 37%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Porto)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalClaudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 20
Team strength
FC Porto
Tondela
79
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
74
AttackIn forecast
16
80
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTondela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC PortoTondela
2.03
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.75
0.48
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.64
1.76
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
0.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
-0.30
97%
Scored inContext
43%
62%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
14.03
ShotsContext
9.75
5.24
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.26
37%
On target shareContext
32%
9.28
Shots in the boxContext
6.11
65%
Box shareContext
61%
15%
ConversionContext
8%
2.19
OffsidesContext
2.90
9.03
Shots allowedContext
12.71
2.31
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.82
3.25
BlocksContext
3.22
2.18
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.54
86%
Save rateContext
72%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
440
PassesContext
319
373
Accurate passesContext
251
85%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.69
13.62
FoulsContext
14.14
12.14
Fouls sufferedContext
11.61
2.28
Yellow cardsContext
2.54
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.04
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.67
xGVia Att/Def
0.82
0.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
90%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.70
ShotsContext
8.20
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.89
36%
On target shareContext
32%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
5.70
58%
Box shareContext
63%
15%
ConversionContext
11%
1.63
OffsidesContext
2.25
11.00
Shots allowedContext
13.00
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.25
BlocksContext
3.30
3.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
83%
Save rateContext
72%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
385
PassesContext
331
314
Accurate passesContext
261
82%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.71
11.90
FoulsContext
14.50
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Porto
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km3,414 km in 14d
Schedule load33%Moderate
Tondela
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel83 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Porto |
Tondela |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 33 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 16 Apr | 6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 13 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 83 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,414 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 5 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 5.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Porto
Confirmed XI
99Diogo Costa(G)
12Z. Sanusi
4J. Kiwior
5J. Bednarek
20Alberto Baio
86Rodrigo Mora
22A. Varela
8V. Froholdt
77O. Pietuszewski
27D. Gül
11Pepê
Tondela
Confirmed XI
31Bernardo Fontes(G)
27Rodrigo Conceição
20Brayan Medina
4Christian Marques
44João Silva
48Tiago Manso
70M. Moudjatovic
32Juan Rodríguez
10J. Hodge
7Pedro Henryque
16Rony Lopes
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Porto
Absences are shown before kick-off
Tondela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Porto+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Tondela+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Porto · Home
2.57points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 11-3-0
- Scored
- 2.07
- Conceded
- 0.43
Tondela · Away
0.85points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-8
- Scored
- 0.77
- Conceded
- 2.08
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | FC Porto | Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| Estoril | W 3–1 AW 1–0 H | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Famalicao | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | L 0–3 AL 0–1 H |
| SC Braga | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Moreirense | W 3–0 HW 2–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Benfica | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Arouca | W 3–1 HW 4–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Rio Ave | W 1–0 HW 3–0 A | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Nacional | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Sporting CP | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A | L 0–3 H |
| Casa Pia | L 1–2 AW 4–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| GIL Vicente | W 3–0 HW 2–0 A | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Guimaraes | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | L 0–5 AL 0–1 H |
| Santa Clara | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A |
| AVS | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Alverca | W 3–0 A | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Estrela | W 3–1 H | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Points | 73 of 84 · 2.61 per game | 21 of 81 · 0.78 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 FC Porto wins0 draws0 Tondela wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 7 Dec 2025Tondela0–2FC Porto
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Porto | Tondela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.03 | 0.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.48 | 1.64 | |
| Match goals | 2.52 | 2.39 | 3.13 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 64% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 54% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 36% | 37% |
| Clean sheets | 62% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 3% | 57% | |
| Games | 29 | 28 |
| FC Porto | Tondela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.50 | 3.13 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 37% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Porto | Tondela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.08 | 3.68 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.32 | 5.43 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 9.11 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% 12/25 | 50% 14/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 32% 8/25 | 43% 12/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 5/25 | 36% 10/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.34 | 2.61 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.93 | 2.21 | |
| Match total | 5.27 | 4.82 | 5.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 79% 23/29 | 68% 19/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 59% 17/29 | 50% 14/28 | |
| FC Porto | Tondela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.44 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.11 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 7.55 | 9.50 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 4.30 | 5.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Claudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira Portugal · 20 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.70league 4.78
Red cards0.25league 0.24
Cards 5+45%league 57%
Fouls28.2league 26.9
Penalties0.35league 0.43
Home wins35%league 41%
FC Porto2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- W4 Jan 26A · Santa Clara1–04
- W11 May 25A · Boavista2–12
Tondela2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W29 Nov 25A · GIL Vicente1–00
- L10 Aug 25A · SC Braga0–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Porto29 games · scored 59 · conceded 14
9
1
0-15
7
1
16-30
10
1
31-45
11
4
46-60
10
3
61-75
12
4
76-90
Tondela28 games · scored 21 · conceded 46
6
4
0-15
1
7
16-30
2
8
31-45
4
5
46-60
5
10
61-75
3
12
76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 20 · conceded 10
5
2
0-15
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
Tondela10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
4
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
