FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim – 13 Dec 2025

Bundesliga Gameweek 14 Sat, Dec 13 · 14:30 Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg

FC St. Pauli 17th · 8 pts · 13 played LLLLD

2–1Full time

1. FC Heidenheim 16th · 11 pts · 13 played DLLWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. FC St. Pauli had 7 days of rest, 1. FC Heidenheim 7 and had to travel 542 km.

Away travel542 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

FC St. Pauli40%

Draw27%

1. FC Heidenheim33%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.31

FC St. Pauli39%

Draw27%

1. FC Heidenheim33%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.27

FC St. Pauli40%

Draw27%

1. FC Heidenheim33%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.32

FC St. Pauli33%

Draw27%

1. FC Heidenheim40%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.47

FC St. Pauli40%

Draw27%

1. FC Heidenheim33%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.27

Over 2.5 52% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Hamburg)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanySören Storks

Cards per match 4.7
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 24

Team strength

FC St. Pauli

1. FC Heidenheim

24 L90 StrengthIn forecast 29

24 Current StrengthIn forecast 29

20 AttackIn forecast 48

23 DefenceIn forecast 39

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FC St. Pauli

Attack—

Defense risk—

1. FC Heidenheim

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FC St. Pauli

1. FC Heidenheim

0.85 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.92

1.92 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.15

0.80 xGVia Att/Def 1.01

1.34 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.69

+0.05 Goals minus xGContext -0.09

54% Scored inContext 62%

8% Clean sheetsContext 0%

10.69 ShotsContext 10.38

3.58 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

31% On target shareContext 31%

5.77 Shots in the boxContext 6.83

52% Box shareContext 62%

8% ConversionContext 9%

2.55 OffsidesContext 1.80

10.77 Shots allowedContext 15.31

5.23 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

3.33 BlocksContext 3.85

3.58 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

66% Save rateContext 60%

48% PossessionIn forecast 41%

460 PassesContext 345

371 Accurate passesContext 268

81% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.67 Team ratingContext 6.71

10.54 FoulsContext 10.15

10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.15

1.54 Yellow cardsContext 1.62

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.08

This league season, per match · 13 and 13 games

0.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10

0.62 xGVia Att/Def 1.13

1.49 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.51

-0.22 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

40% Scored inContext 70%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

9.90 ShotsContext 11.70

2.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

23% On target shareContext 31%

4.90 Shots in the boxContext 8.11

48% Box shareContext 65%

4% ConversionContext 9%

2.44 OffsidesContext 1.71

11.70 Shots allowedContext 15.10

5.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

4.00 BlocksContext 4.40

3.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

65% Save rateContext 57%

47% PossessionIn forecast 43%

450 PassesContext 361

362 Accurate passesContext 282

81% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.60 Team ratingContext 6.74

9.50 FoulsContext 10.50

9.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FC St. Pauli

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,938 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

1. FC Heidenheim

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel542 km971 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FC St. Pauli	1. FC Heidenheim
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 6 Dec	7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 6 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	542 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,938 km	971 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8	8.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FC St. Pauli Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

22N. Vasilj(G)

3K. Mets 8E. Smith 5H. Wahl

23Louis Oppie 7J. Irvine 6J. Sands 11Arkadiusz Pyrka

28M. Pereira Lage 16J. Fujita

19M. Kaars

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

1. FC Heidenheim Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

41D. Ramaj(G)

4T. Siersleben 6P. Mainka 27T. Keller

19J. Föhrenbach 16J. Niehues 3J. Schöppner 2M. Busch

22A. Ibrahimović 21A. Beck

18M. Pieringer

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FC St. Pauli Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

1. FC Heidenheim Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

FC St. Pauli+0.2 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
1. FC Heidenheim-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

FC St. Pauli · Home 0.67points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-4
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.33

1. FC Heidenheim · Away 0.50points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-5
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 2.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 11 this season

Opponent	FC St. Pauli	1. FC Heidenheim
Union Berlin	L 0–1 H	W 2–1 A
SC Freiburg	L 1–2 A	W 2–1 H
Borussia Mönchengladbach	L 0–4 H	L 0–3 H
Eintracht Frankfurt	L 0–2 A	D 1–1 H
1899 Hoffenheim	L 0–3 H	L 1–3 A
Werder Bremen	L 0–1 A	D 2–2 H
Bayer Leverkusen	L 1–2 H	L 0–6 A
VfB Stuttgart	L 0–2 A	L 0–1 A
FC Augsburg	W 2–1 H	W 2–1 H
Hamburger SV	W 2–0 A	L 1–2 A
Borussia Dortmund	D 3–3 H	L 0–2 H
Points	7 of 33 · 0.64 per game	11 of 33 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 FC St. Pauli wins0 draws1 1. FC Heidenheim wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets50% · 50%

18 Jan 20251. FC Heidenheim0–2FC St. Pauli
25 Aug 2024FC St. Pauli0–21. FC Heidenheim

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	FC St. Pauli	1. FC Heidenheim	Forecast
Scored per game	0.85	0.92
Conceded per game	1.92	2.15
Match goals	2.77	3.08	2.77
Over 1.5	85%	92%
Over 2.5	54%	69%	52%
Over 3.5	23%	31%
Both teams scored	46%	62%	57%
Clean sheets	8%	0%
Failed to score	46%	38%
Games	13	13

	FC St. Pauli	1. FC Heidenheim	Forecast
Scored per game	0.40	1.10
Conceded per game	2.10	2.10
Match goals	2.50	3.20	2.77
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	80%	52%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	70%	57%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	60%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FC St. Pauli	1. FC Heidenheim	League
Corners
Corners won	5.33	4.69
Corners conceded	3.75	4.54
Match total	9.08	9.23	9.79
Over 8.5	58% 7/12	69% 9/13
Over 9.5	42% 5/12	46% 6/13
Over 10.5	42% 5/12	38% 5/13
Cards
Cards	1.54	1.69
Opponent cards	2.00	2.31
Match total	3.54	4.00	4.11
Over 3.5	46% 6/13	54% 7/13
Over 4.5	31% 4/13	46% 6/13

	FC St. Pauli	1. FC Heidenheim	League
Corners
Corners won	5.78	5.10
Corners conceded	4.44	4.60
Match total	10.22	9.70	9.79
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.40	1.20
Opponent cards	1.50	2.20
Match total	2.90	3.40	4.11
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sören Storks Germany · 24 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.50league 3.94

Red cards0.17league 0.20

Cards 5+58%league 42%

Fouls21.6league 21.3

Penalties0.25league 0.33

Home wins42%league 47%

FC St. Pauli3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.0.3 · 3.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

L4 Oct 25A · Werder Bremen0–10
D20 Apr 25H · Bayer Leverkusen1–11
W26 Jan 25H · Union Berlin3–00

1. FC Heidenheim3 with this referee

Record0-0-3 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.7 Pens for · against0 · 0

L1 Mar 25H · Borussia Mönchengladbach0–32
L7 Dec 24A · Bayern München2–40
L2 Mar 24H · Eintracht Frankfurt1–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.