FC St. Pauli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
1.FC Köln were slight favourites.
1.FC Köln were the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 28). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for 1.FC Köln. FC St. Pauli had 6.1 days of rest, 1.FC Köln 5.2 and had to travel 357 km.
Away travel357 kmRest days6.1 · 5.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
FC St. Pauli27%
Draw25%
1.FC Köln47%
FC St. Pauli38%
Draw27%
1.FC Köln35%
FC St. Pauli29%
Draw26%
1.FC Köln45%
FC St. Pauli21%
Draw24%
1.FC Köln55%
FC St. Pauli28%
Draw26%
1.FC Köln46%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hamburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyMatthias Jollenbeck
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 68
Team strength
FC St. Pauli
1.FC Köln
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
38
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
20
AttackIn forecast
36
23
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1.FC Köln
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC St. Pauli1.FC Köln
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.48
1.72
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.72
0.78
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
59%
Scored inContext
86%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.79
ShotsContext
12.48
3.32
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
33%
On target shareContext
35%
5.68
Shots in the boxContext
8.86
55%
Box shareContext
69%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
2.55
OffsidesContext
2.52
11.69
Shots allowedContext
13.21
5.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.68
3.42
BlocksContext
3.96
3.61
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.15
69%
Save rateContext
65%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
419
PassesContext
392
328
Accurate passesContext
318
78%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.82
9.59
FoulsContext
8.03
9.52
Fouls sufferedContext
10.41
1.38
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.07
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
0.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
60%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.00
ShotsContext
12.80
3.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
31%
On target shareContext
33%
6.22
Shots in the boxContext
10.30
57%
Box shareContext
82%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
2.38
OffsidesContext
3.14
12.70
Shots allowedContext
12.20
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.33
BlocksContext
3.40
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
70%
Save rateContext
59%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
380
PassesContext
362
291
Accurate passesContext
286
77%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.81
8.60
FoulsContext
7.90
8.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC St. Pauli
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km511 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
1.FC Köln
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel357 km305 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC St. Pauli |
1.FC Köln |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 11 Apr | 5.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 12 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 357 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 511 km | 305 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC St. Pauli
Confirmed XI
22N. Vasilj(G)
3K. Mets
5H. Wahl
15Tomoya Ando
21L. Ritzka
7J. Irvine
20M. Rasmussen
11Arkadiusz Pyrka
28M. Pereira Lage
10D. Sinani
27A. Hountondji
1.FC Köln
Confirmed XI
1M. Schwäbe(G)
17A. Castro-Montes
39C. Özkacar
22J. Simpson-Pusey
28S. Sebulonsen
16J. Kamiński
6E. Martel
18Í. Jóhannesson
29J. Thielmann
13S. El Mala
9R. Ache
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC St. Pauli
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1.FC Köln
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC St. Pauli-1.9 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- 1.FC Köln+2.2 pp
Home / Away this season
FC St. Pauli · Home
1.14points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-6
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.79
1.FC Köln · Away
0.79points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-7
- Scored
- 1.07
- Conceded
- 1.79
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | FC St. Pauli | 1.FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | L 0–5 HL 1–3 A | L 1–3 H |
| Union Berlin | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| SC Freiburg | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A | L 1–2 AW 4–1 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–2 AL 0–4 H | D 3–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 0–0 HL 0–2 A | D 2–2 AL 3–4 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 1–0 AL 0–3 H | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–4 AL 1–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A | L 1–3 AL 1–2 H |
| FC Augsburg | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H |
| RB Leipzig | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Hamburger SV | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A | D 1–1 AW 4–1 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 2–3 AD 3–3 H | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 0–0 A | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 24 of 84 · 0.86 per game | 29 of 84 · 1.04 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 FC St. Pauli wins1 draws0 1.FC Köln wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 6 Dec 20251.FC Köln1–1FC St. Pauli
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC St. Pauli | 1.FC Köln | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 1.48 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.72 | 1.72 | |
| Match goals | 2.59 | 3.21 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 62% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 45% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 76% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 41% | 14% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| FC St. Pauli | 1.FC Köln | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.30 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC St. Pauli | 1.FC Köln | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.39 | 4.69 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.64 | 5.69 | |
| Match total | 9.03 | 10.38 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 18/28 | 62% 16/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 13/28 | 50% 13/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 8/28 | 42% 11/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.45 | 1.97 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.83 | 2.34 | |
| Match total | 3.28 | 4.31 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% 11/29 | 66% 19/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 21% 6/29 | 48% 14/29 | |
| FC St. Pauli | 1.FC Köln | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.30 | 5.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 8.10 | 10.13 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 5.20 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Matthias Jollenbeck Germany · 68 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.84league 3.75
Red cards0.16league 0.18
Cards 5+37%league 38%
Fouls22.7league 20.4
Penalties0.35league 0.36
Home wins53%league 44%
FC St. Pauli4 with this referee
Record0-2-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D21 Dec 25A · FSV Mainz 050–01
- D23 Aug 25H · Borussia Dortmund3–32
- L7 Dec 24A · Bayer Leverkusen1–23
- L18 Oct 24A · Borussia Dortmund1–21
1.FC Köln9 with this referee
Record2-3-4
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.1
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- L28 Sep 25H · VfB Stuttgart1–22
- L20 Apr 24H · SV Darmstadt 980–20
- D11 Nov 23A · VfL Bochum1–11
- L26 Aug 23H · VfL Wolfsburg1–21
- D29 Jan 23A · FC Schalke 040–04
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC St. Pauli29 games · scored 25 · conceded 50
1
5
0-15
3
3
16-30
7
10
31-45
5
13
46-60
4
9
61-75
5
10
76-90
1.FC Köln29 games · scored 43 · conceded 50
8
5
0-15
5
7
16-30
3
10
31-45
7
7
46-60
3
11
61-75
17
10
76-90
FC St. Pauli10 games · scored 8 · conceded 18
3
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
5
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 15 · conceded 18
4
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
