FC St. Pauli
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
FC St. Pauli27.4%fair odds 3.65
Draw25.4%fair odds 3.93
1.FC Köln47.2%fair odds 2.12
Expected goals1.22 – 1.66total 2.88
Likeliest score1–112.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
1.FC Köln
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| FC St. Pauli ↓ · 1.FC Köln → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are FC St. Pauli goals, columns 1.FC Köln goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.0%8.35
- 1–29.4%10.59
- 0–18.8%11.42
- 0–27.8%12.88
- 2–16.9%14.45
- 1–06.3%15.99
- 0–06.2%16.02
- 2–25.7%17.42
- 1–35.2%19.15
- 0–34.3%23.28
Winning margin
3.7%
FC St. Pauli by 3+
fair 26.97
7.8%
FC St. Pauli by 2
fair 12.85
15.9%
FC St. Pauli by 1
fair 6.28
25.4%
Draw
fair 3.93
22.0%
1.FC Köln by 1
fair 4.55
14.5%
1.FC Köln by 2
fair 6.90
10.7%
1.FC Köln by 3+
fair 9.36
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
FC St. Pauli goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
1.FC Köln goals
19%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
9%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli win | 27.4% | 27.7% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 25.4% | 26.1% | -0.7 pp |
| 1.FC Köln win | 47.2% | 46.3% | +0.9 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.8% | 52.3% | +2.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.6% | 55.7% | +1.8 pp |
| Expected goals FC St. Pauli | 1.22 | 1.18 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals 1.FC Köln | 1.66 | 1.59 | +0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- FC St. Pauli win27.4%3.65
- Draw25.4%3.93
- 1.FC Köln win47.2%2.12
- Double chance FC St. Pauli or draw52.8%1.89
- Double chance FC St. Pauli or 1.FC Köln74.6%1.34
- Double chance 1.FC Köln or draw72.6%1.38
- Draw no bet FC St. Pauli36.8%2.72
- Draw no bet 1.FC Köln63.2%1.58
Goals
- Over 0.593.8%1.07
- Over 1.578.8%1.27
- Over 2.554.8%1.82
- Over 3.532.5%3.08
- Over 4.516.4%6.09
- Under 1.521.2%4.71
- Under 2.545.2%2.21
- Under 3.567.5%1.48
Both teams to score
- Yes57.6%1.74
- No42.4%2.36
- Yes and over 2.545.6%2.19
- FC St. Pauli win and yes14.6%6.83
- Draw and yes19.2%5.21
- 1.FC Köln win and yes23.7%4.21
Team goals
- FC St. Pauli over 0.570.4%1.42
- FC St. Pauli over 1.534.3%2.91
- FC St. Pauli over 2.512.4%8.06
- 1.FC Köln over 0.581.0%1.23
- 1.FC Köln over 1.549.4%2.02
- 1.FC Köln over 2.523.2%4.31
- FC St. Pauli clean sheet19.0%5.26
- 1.FC Köln clean sheet29.6%3.37
- FC St. Pauli win to nil12.8%7.82
- 1.FC Köln win to nil23.4%4.27
Handicap
- FC St. Pauli −1.511.5%8.70
- FC St. Pauli −2.53.7%26.97
- 1.FC Köln +1.588.5%1.13
- 1.FC Köln +2.596.3%1.04
- 1.FC Köln −1.525.2%3.97
- FC St. Pauli +1.574.8%1.34
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored261
Favourite won56.7%
Avg chance given to result43.4%
1X2 Brier0.557
Over 2.5 called right60.9%
BTTS called right57.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 35 | 38.3% | 37.1% |
| 40–50% | 82 | 44.9% | 46.3% |
| 50–60% | 69 | 55.2% | 59.4% |
| 60–70% | 40 | 64.6% | 70.0% |
| 70–80% | 23 | 74.0% | 78.3% |
| 80%+ | 12 | 86.6% | 83.3% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 214 of 261 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5494 | 0.5486 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.8% | 43.2% |
| Favourite won | 57.9% | 56.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 214 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✓VfB Stuttgart 4–0 Hamburger SV77·14·9
- ✓1.FC Köln 3–1 Werder Bremen41·26·33
- ✓FC St. Pauli 0–5 Bayern München3·7·90
- ✓1. FC Heidenheim 3–1 Union Berlin38·27·36
- ✓RB Leipzig 1–0 Borussia Mönchengladbach66·19·14
- ✗Borussia Dortmund 0–1 Bayer Leverkusen52·23·26
- ✓VfL Wolfsburg 1–2 Eintracht Frankfurt31·24·45
- ✗FC Augsburg 2–2 1899 Hoffenheim39·24·38
- ✗Eintracht Frankfurt 2–2 1.FC Köln54·25·21
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 261 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.