FC St. Pauli
Attack—
Defense risk—
FC St. Pauli
14th · 7 pts · 8 played
LLLLL
0–4Full time
Borussia Mönchengladbach
18th · 3 pts · 8 played
DLDLL
Our take
It was too close to call.
Borussia Mönchengladbach were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 27). Absences weigh more on FC St. Pauli. FC St. Pauli had 7 days of rest, Borussia Mönchengladbach 7 and had to travel 357 km.
Away travel357 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
FC St. Pauli37%
Draw26%
Borussia Mönchengladbach37%
FC St. Pauli37%
Draw27%
Borussia Mönchengladbach35%
FC St. Pauli38%
Draw26%
Borussia Mönchengladbach36%
FC St. Pauli30%
Draw26%
Borussia Mönchengladbach44%
FC St. Pauli36%
Draw27%
Borussia Mönchengladbach37%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hamburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyRobert Hartmann
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 54
Team strength
FC St. PauliBorussia Mönchengladbach
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
20
AttackIn forecast
34
23
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBorussia Mönchengladbach
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC St. PauliBorussia Mönchengladbach
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.75
1.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.25
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.59
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.32
50%
Scored inContext
38%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
11.38
ShotsContext
11.63
4.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.86
37%
On target shareContext
37%
6.38
Shots in the boxContext
8.71
55%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
2.83
OffsidesContext
2.50
10.25
Shots allowedContext
14.88
5.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.88
3.33
BlocksContext
3.75
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
68%
Save rateContext
55%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
486
PassesContext
423
395
Accurate passesContext
355
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.71
11.63
FoulsContext
11.50
11.88
Fouls sufferedContext
9.38
1.63
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.69
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.49
50%
Scored inContext
30%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.60
ShotsContext
12.40
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.78
36%
On target shareContext
35%
6.22
Shots in the boxContext
8.89
54%
Box shareContext
66%
9%
ConversionContext
5%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.86
10.40
Shots allowedContext
15.90
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.10
3.00
BlocksContext
4.30
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
69%
Save rateContext
61%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
467
PassesContext
426
378
Accurate passesContext
358
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.76
10.80
FoulsContext
10.60
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
8.10
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC St. Pauli
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km785 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel357 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC St. Pauli |
Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 25 Oct | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 25 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 357 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 785 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC St. Pauli
Confirmed XI
22N. Vasilj(G)
3K. Mets
8E. Smith
5H. Wahl
23Louis Oppie
16J. Fujita
6J. Sands
2E. Saliakas
17O. Afolayan
28M. Pereira Lage
10D. Sinani
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Confirmed XI
33M. Nicolas(G)
4K. Diks
30N. Elvedi
16P. Sander
26L. Ullrich
6Y. Engelhardt
27R. Reitz
29J. Scally
10F. Neuhaus
9F. Honorat
15H. Tabaković
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC St. Pauli
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC St. Pauli-1.1 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Borussia Mönchengladbach+1.3 pp
Home / Away this season
FC St. Pauli · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 2.25
Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | FC St. Pauli | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 0–2 A | L 4–6 H |
| Werder Bremen | L 0–1 A | L 0–4 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Hamburger SV | W 2–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 3 of 15 · 0.60 per game | 2 of 15 · 0.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 FC St. Pauli wins1 draws1 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 6 Apr 2025FC St. Pauli1–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 24 Nov 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach2–0FC St. Pauli
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC St. Pauli | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 2.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 3.00 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 38% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 63% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| FC St. Pauli | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 2.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 3.00 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 38% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 63% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC St. Pauli | Borussia Mönchengladbach | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.57 | 5.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 5.29 | |
| Match total | 8.57 | 11.00 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.63 | 2.13 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.75 | 2.38 | |
| Match total | 4.38 | 4.51 | 4.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 4/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| FC St. Pauli | Borussia Mönchengladbach | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.22 | 6.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.11 | 5.56 | |
| Match total | 8.33 | 11.67 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.80 | 4.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robert Hartmann Germany · 54 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.81league 4.23
Red cards0.22league 0.22
Cards 5+39%league 44%
Fouls23.1league 22.6
Penalties0.33league 0.40
Home wins48%league 42%
FC St. Pauli3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D8 Mar 25A · VfL Wolfsburg1–10
- L14 Dec 24H · Werder Bremen0–22
- D22 Sep 24H · RB Leipzig0–02
Borussia Mönchengladbach6 with this referee
Record2-0-4
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L26 Apr 25A · Holstein Kiel3–41
- W1 Feb 25A · VfB Stuttgart2–12
- L30 Nov 24A · SC Freiburg1–31
- W28 Oct 23H · 1. FC Heidenheim2–10
- L24 Feb 23A · FSV Mainz 050–43
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC St. Pauli8 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach8 games · scored 6 · conceded 18
4
0-15
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
4
76-90
FC St. Pauli10 games · scored 10 · conceded 18
1
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
5
46-60
4
61-75
3
1
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach10 games · scored 6 · conceded 21
4
0-15
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
