FC St. Pauli
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
FC St. Pauli
14th · 7 pts · 8 played
LLLLL
0–4Full time
Borussia Mönchengladbach
18th · 3 pts · 8 played
DLDLL
FC St. Pauli37.0%fair odds 2.70
Draw26.2%fair odds 3.82
Borussia Mönchengladbach36.8%fair odds 2.71
Expected goals1.44 – 1.43total 2.87
Likeliest score1–112.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Borussia Mönchengladbach
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| FC St. Pauli ↓ · Borussia Mönchengladbach → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 12.3 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are FC St. Pauli goals, columns Borussia Mönchengladbach goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%8.13
- 2–18.4%11.92
- 1–28.4%11.95
- 1–07.5%13.28
- 0–17.5%13.31
- 0–06.3%15.89
- 2–26.0%16.64
- 2–05.9%17.08
- 0–25.8%17.17
- 3–14.0%24.90
Winning margin
6.6%
FC St. Pauli by 3+
fair 15.16
11.1%
FC St. Pauli by 2
fair 9.04
19.3%
FC St. Pauli by 1
fair 5.17
26.2%
Draw
fair 3.82
19.3%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 1
fair 5.18
11.0%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 2
fair 9.09
6.5%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 3+
fair 15.29
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
FC St. Pauli goals
24%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
Borussia Mönchengladbach goals
24%0
34%1
24%2
12%3
6%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli win | 37.0% | 36.3% | +0.7 pp |
| Draw | 26.2% | 27.1% | -0.9 pp |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 36.8% | 36.6% | +0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.7% | 50.8% | +3.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.6% | 55.6% | +3.0 pp |
| Expected goals FC St. Pauli | 1.44 | 1.35 | +0.09 |
| Expected goals Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1.43 | 1.36 | +0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- FC St. Pauli win37.0%2.70
- Draw26.2%3.82
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win36.8%2.71
- Double chance FC St. Pauli or draw63.2%1.58
- Double chance FC St. Pauli or Borussia Mönchengladbach73.8%1.35
- Double chance Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw63.0%1.59
- Draw no bet FC St. Pauli50.1%2.00
- Draw no bet Borussia Mönchengladbach49.9%2.00
Goals
- Over 0.593.7%1.07
- Over 1.578.7%1.27
- Over 2.554.7%1.83
- Over 3.532.3%3.09
- Over 4.516.3%6.13
- Under 1.521.3%4.69
- Under 2.545.3%2.21
- Under 3.567.7%1.48
Both teams to score
- Yes58.6%1.71
- No41.4%2.42
- Yes and over 2.546.4%2.16
- FC St. Pauli win and yes19.4%5.15
- Draw and yes19.9%5.03
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win and yes19.3%5.17
Team goals
- FC St. Pauli over 0.576.2%1.31
- FC St. Pauli over 1.542.1%2.38
- FC St. Pauli over 2.517.5%5.70
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 0.576.1%1.31
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 1.541.9%2.38
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 2.517.4%5.73
- FC St. Pauli clean sheet23.9%4.19
- Borussia Mönchengladbach clean sheet23.8%4.21
- FC St. Pauli win to nil17.6%5.69
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win to nil17.5%5.72
Handicap
- FC St. Pauli −1.517.7%5.66
- FC St. Pauli −2.56.6%15.16
- Borussia Mönchengladbach +1.582.3%1.21
- Borussia Mönchengladbach +2.593.4%1.07
- Borussia Mönchengladbach −1.517.5%5.70
- FC St. Pauli +1.582.5%1.21
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored73
Favourite won58.9%
Avg chance given to result44.5%
1X2 Brier0.529
Over 2.5 called right61.6%
BTTS called right53.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 12 | 38.2% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 21 | 45.0% | 38.1% |
| 50–60% | 17 | 54.5% | 58.8% |
| 60–70% | 15 | 65.6% | 86.7% |
| 70–80% | 7 | 73.5% | 71.4% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 87.0% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 55 of 73 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4930 | 0.5057 |
| Avg chance given to result | 46.3% | 45.1% |
| Favourite won | 63.6% | 63.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 55 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✗Hamburger SV 0–1 VfL Wolfsburg40·26·34
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- ✓1899 Hoffenheim 3–1 1. FC Heidenheim55·23·21
- ✓Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–3 Bayern München9·16·75
- ✓Werder Bremen 1–0 Union Berlin51·25·24
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 73 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.