FC St. Pauli
Attack—
Defense risk—
FC St. Pauli
16th · 26 pts · 31 played
LDLDL
1–2Full time
FSV Mainz 05
10th · 34 pts · 31 played
WWLDL
Our take
FSV Mainz 05 were slight favourites.
FSV Mainz 05 were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for FSV Mainz 05. FC St. Pauli had 8 days of rest, FSV Mainz 05 8 and had to travel 414 km.
Away travel414 kmRest days8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 2
FC St. Pauli24%
Draw25%
FSV Mainz 0551%
FC St. Pauli28%
Draw27%
FSV Mainz 0546%
FC St. Pauli24%
Draw26%
FSV Mainz 0550%
FC St. Pauli18%
Draw23%
FSV Mainz 0558%
FC St. Pauli24%
Draw26%
FSV Mainz 0550%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hamburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTimo Gerach
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.48
- Matches 33
Team strength
FC St. PauliFSV Mainz 05
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
53
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
55
20
AttackIn forecast
68
23
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFSV Mainz 05
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC St. PauliFSV Mainz 05
0.84
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.26
1.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.58
0.82
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
58%
Scored inContext
68%
16%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.90
ShotsContext
11.16
3.37
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.97
33%
On target shareContext
34%
5.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.69
56%
Box shareContext
73%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
2.58
OffsidesContext
2.59
11.61
Shots allowedContext
13.84
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.87
3.46
BlocksContext
4.00
3.55
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.26
68%
Save rateContext
67%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
419
PassesContext
355
329
Accurate passesContext
267
78%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.82
9.32
FoulsContext
10.42
9.19
Fouls sufferedContext
10.03
1.45
Yellow cardsContext
2.03
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.13
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.68
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
50%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.30
ShotsContext
11.50
2.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.78
30%
On target shareContext
37%
5.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.33
57%
Box shareContext
72%
7%
ConversionContext
12%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.60
13.00
Shots allowedContext
10.40
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
3.67
BlocksContext
2.90
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
69%
Save rateContext
67%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
389
PassesContext
340
298
Accurate passesContext
265
77%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.64
Team ratingContext
6.88
7.80
FoulsContext
10.90
7.30
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC St. Pauli
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,084 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FSV Mainz 05
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel414 km373 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC St. Pauli |
FSV Mainz 05 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 25 Apr | 8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 25 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 414 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,084 km | 373 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC St. Pauli
Confirmed XI
22N. Vasilj(G)
3K. Mets
5H. Wahl
15Tomoya Ando
21L. Ritzka
8E. Smith
7J. Irvine
11Arkadiusz Pyrka
16J. Fujita
10D. Sinani
27A. Hountondji
FSV Mainz 05
Confirmed XI
33D. Batz(G)
48K. Potulski
4S. Posch
21D. da Costa
2P. Mwene
10N. Amiri
6K. Sano
8P. Nebel
30S. Widmer
20P. Tietz
23S. Becker
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC St. Pauli
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FSV Mainz 05
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC St. Pauli-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- FSV Mainz 05+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
FC St. Pauli · Home
1.13points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-6
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.73
FSV Mainz 05 · Away
1.13points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-6
- Scored
- 1.27
- Conceded
- 1.80
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | FC St. Pauli | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Heidenheim | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Bayern München | L 0–5 HL 1–3 A | L 3–4 HD 2–2 A |
| Union Berlin | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| SC Freiburg | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 HL 0–4 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–2 AL 0–4 H | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 0–0 HL 0–2 A | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 1–0 AL 0–3 H | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–4 AL 1–2 H | D 1–1 AL 3–4 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A |
| FC Augsburg | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | W 2–0 HW 4–1 A |
| RB Leipzig | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Hamburger SV | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A | D 1–1 HL 0–4 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 2–3 AD 3–3 H | L 0–4 AL 0–2 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | L 1–2 A | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Points | 25 of 90 · 0.83 per game | 33 of 90 · 1.10 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 FC St. Pauli wins1 draws2 FSV Mainz 05 wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets33% · 100%
- 21 Dec 2025FSV Mainz 050–0FC St. Pauli
- 22 Feb 2025FSV Mainz 052–0FC St. Pauli
- 5 Oct 2024FC St. Pauli0–3FSV Mainz 05
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC St. Pauli | FSV Mainz 05 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.84 | 1.26 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.71 | 1.58 | |
| Match goals | 2.55 | 2.84 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 52% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 32% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 61% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 16% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 42% | 32% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| FC St. Pauli | FSV Mainz 05 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 3.00 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC St. Pauli | FSV Mainz 05 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.57 | 4.93 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 4.36 | |
| Match total | 9.27 | 9.29 | 9.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 20/30 | 57% 16/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 15/30 | 46% 13/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 10/30 | 32% 9/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.52 | 2.19 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.74 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.26 | 4.19 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 39% 12/31 | 61% 19/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 23% 7/31 | 39% 12/31 | |
| FC St. Pauli | FSV Mainz 05 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 8.44 | 9.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 4.50 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Timo Gerach Germany · 33 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.88league 3.72
Red cards0.30league 0.18
Cards 5+48%league 38%
Fouls20.6league 20.2
Penalties0.48league 0.36
Home wins42%league 43%
FC St. Pauli2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L9 Nov 24H · Bayern München0–12
- W28 Sep 24A · SC Freiburg3–03
FSV Mainz 053 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.4.0 · 3.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L8 Dec 24A · VfL Wolfsburg3–44
- D31 Aug 24A · VfB Stuttgart3–32
- L23 Feb 24A · Bayer Leverkusen1–26
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC St. Pauli31 games · scored 26 · conceded 53
1
6
0-15
3
3
16-30
7
10
31-45
5
13
46-60
5
9
61-75
5
12
76-90
FSV Mainz 0531 games · scored 39 · conceded 49
6
10
0-15
5
6
16-30
8
6
31-45
4
7
46-60
7
3
61-75
9
17
76-90
FC St. Pauli10 games · scored 6 · conceded 18
4
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
4
61-75
5
76-90
FSV Mainz 0510 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
5
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
